Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

18z gfs has lows near 10 on NY and highs in the teens for DFW

[Texas Snow]

I have followed this board since the early 2000's. As my first post on this forum, I wanted to take the time to thank you all for a fourteen-year educational weather ride. I have gained an enormous amount of knowledge but consider myself as not having learned enough yet. I wish you all a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Welcome and Merry Christmas. Don’t wait so long to post again

[orangeblood]

The Baja low is now attempting to phase with the northern branch next weekend....very very interesting!!!

[Cpv17]

The Baja low is now attempting to phase with the northern branch next weekend....very very interesting!!!

And it’s within one week away now so it’s looking a bit more promising.

[northjaxpro]

I wanted to take this moment to wish all of our Storm2K family out in the Lone Star state a very Merry Christmas and Best Wishes to you and your families!!

Looking at the latest models, it is looking likely you all out there are about to get a strong, strong. push of arctic air coming into your region beginning next weekend and beyond. Also, with the potential of an active subtropical jet in the picture next week, well you all out there may get quite the winter storm potential . You are already watching this very closely, and rightfully so. It could be some very interesting days and times ahead for you all as we head into 2018!!

[Ntxw]

The Baja low is now attempting to phase with the northern branch next weekend....very very interesting!!!

And it’s within one week away now so it’s looking a bit more promising.

Well at least it didn't start out cold and then trend warmer. Past few weeks it's been the weekend runs that slowly migrated away from snow and cold, hopefully this is going the opposite direction

[wxman57]

Looks like the major ice storm along the Gulf Coast is pushed back to NEXT week. Fun New Year's Day! Even ice out in the Gulf.

I've been working on a 240-page report (so far) for some lawyers this evening. What else is there to do on Christmas Eve? It's due next Wednesday.

Merry Christmas from Prairieville, LA, everyone!

[northjaxpro]

Yes, wxman57 I saw that as well. Yeah, wintry precip indeed is being shown all the way to the Gulf Coast and even into the GOM

The STJ really looks to be very active next 7-10 days and moving over that cold arctic air over the surface. Looks potentially very interesting around New Year's Day.

Merry Christmas wxman57!

[JayDT]

18z gfs has lows near 10 on NY and highs in the teens for DFW

Is this cold for next weekend at least kind of believable since its not too far off from now??

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looks like the major ice storm along the Gulf Coast is pushed back to NEXT week. Fun New Year's Day! Even ice out in the Gulf.

I've been working on a 240-page report (so far) for some lawyers this evening. What else is there to do on Christmas Eve? It's due next Wednesday.

Merry Christmas from Prairieville, LA, everyone!

What you doing in my neck of the woods? Actually live just a couple minutes up the road from P'ville. Thanks for bringing some cooler weather with you for Christmas. Not buying the gfs at all, always a week away

[Brent]

18z gfs has lows near 10 on NY and highs in the teens for DFW

Is this cold for next weekend at least kind of believable since its not too far off from now??

I wanna see it hold for a day or two before I bite too much, the Euro is a bit warmer but still the coldest of the winter(20/31 at DFW), we'll see how it trends in coming runs

[Cpv17]

Looks like the major ice storm along the Gulf Coast is pushed back to NEXT week. Fun New Year's Day! Even ice out in the Gulf.

I've been working on a 240-page report (so far) for some lawyers this evening. What else is there to do on Christmas Eve? It's due next Wednesday.

Merry Christmas from Prairieville, LA, everyone!

What you doing in my neck of the woods? Actually live just a couple minutes up the road from P'ville. Thanks for bringing some cooler weather with you for Christmas. Not buying the gfs at all, always a week away

It’s not just the GFS showing it. Today’s 12z Euro also showed some Artic air moving in as well. I would say this is looking more promising than the last cold and winter precip episode that was supposed to be happening right now. 2 weeks ago according to the models it was supposed to be in the 20’s right now and snowing or an ice storm breaking out.

[bubba hotep]

The Baja low is now attempting to phase with the northern branch next weekend....very very interesting!!!

I've been watching that closely, there have been some other runs that looked like they might pull that off. The Baja low is real, it's out there tonight, but the problem is timing up a northern stream s/w. The models keep flopping around with how they want to handle the northern stream energy coming off the Pacific. We are bound to get lucky eventually with this pattern.

[Cpv17]

18z gfs has lows near 10 on NY and highs in the teens for DFW

Is this cold for next weekend at least kind of believable since its not too far off from now??

I wanna see it hold for a day or two before I bite too much, the Euro is a bit warmer but still the coldest of the winter(20/31 at DFW), we'll see how it trends in coming runs

By Wednesday we will know, I believe. For some reason I’m feeling way more optimistic this time compared to last time 10-15 days ago.

[Brent]

Is this cold for next weekend at least kind of believable since its not too far off from now??

I wanna see it hold for a day or two before I bite too much, the Euro is a bit warmer but still the coldest of the winter(20/31 at DFW), we'll see how it trends in coming runs

By Wednesday we will know, I believe. For some reason I’m feeling way more optimistic this time compared to last time 10-15 days ago.

I do think this has more support... now I would never buy into highs in the teens/20s here at this range(after the last fiasco), but I certainly think the coldest air of the winter seems probable(the EPS is pretty cold too and that's an average, high of 38 at DFW New Years Day). We'll just have to see how cold that is...

What's really more striking about the EPS is in the 15 days it goes out, the warmest temperature at DFW Is 50! Very chilly pattern at the least

[Ntxw]

Yeah as Bubba and I have mentioned, we're already in a cold pattern. Not waiting for a flip of some kind. Cold fronts that comes will just build colder than the ambient below average anomalies so it won't take much to get colder.

[Brent]

:uarrow: Yeah as Bubba and I have mentioned, we're already in a cold pattern. Not waiting for a flip of some kind. Cold fronts that comes will just build colder than the ambient below average anomalies so it won't take much to get colder.

if we get a bigger snowpack to our north then yeah its inevitable we'll get a much colder airmass sooner or later

[Ntxw]

Is this cold for next weekend at least kind of believable since its not too far off from now??

I wanna see it hold for a day or two before I bite too much, the Euro is a bit warmer but still the coldest of the winter(20/31 at DFW), we'll see how it trends in coming runs

By Wednesday we will know, I believe. For some reason I’m feeling way more optimistic this time compared to last time 10-15 days ago.

Climo is also on our side. For the past 5-6 years our coldest raw temperatures have come about the first week or so of January.

Still waiting for a legit January snowstorm in DFW. Haven't had 1" or greater since 2003

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Oh hey Euro. *waves*

[Brent]

1055 mb high in ND on the 0z GFS New Years Eve

Gonna be another cold run

is a little slower this run and less of a winter storm but DFW does get close to some frozen precip NYE as the temps plunge, most of the precip is east

Single digit lows along the Red River New Years Day. Highs probably struggling to get out of the teens again New Years Day in DFW and subfreezing almost to the coast