Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Cpv17]

Me and you need for it to dig a lot further south. Not sure that’s gonna happen.

ICOn has ice statewide. It just doesnt show on tidbits. Austins around 21.

Otherwise yes, if you werent referring to that specific model, yeah I agree. Its a long shot still

Does it show ice all the way to the upper Texas coast?

Only like two members show that. Very unlikely at this point.

[Brent]

0z Euro not much different from the GFS tbh up here

[Ntxw]

0z Euro not much different from the GFS tbh up here

https://i.ibb.co/BqBQjzQ/sn10-acc-us-c-8.png

A lot of it trended further south from it's 12z run. I'd say improvement run for you.

Overall though I wouldn't say too much changed. It's like trying to paint a picture with blindfolds right now. It's gonna be smudgy and fuzzy but you can make out the features. The energy associated with it is in the middle of the North Pacific.

[Brent]

0z Euro not much different from the GFS tbh up here

https://i.ibb.co/BqBQjzQ/sn10-acc-us-c-8.png

A lot of it trended further south from it's 12z run. I'd say improvement run for you.

Overall though I wouldn't say too much changed. It's like trying to paint a picture with blindfolds right now. It's gonna be smudgy and fuzzy but you can make out the features. The energy associated with it is in the middle of the North Pacific.

Yeah unfortunately it's still day 5 and 6 but I do feel pretty good up here right now

[Ntxw]

0z Euro not much different from the GFS tbh up here

https://i.ibb.co/BqBQjzQ/sn10-acc-us-c-8.png

A lot of it trended further south from it's 12z run. I'd say improvement run for you.

Overall though I wouldn't say too much changed. It's like trying to paint a picture with blindfolds right now. It's gonna be smudgy and fuzzy but you can make out the features. The energy associated with it is in the middle of the North Pacific.

Yeah unfortunately it's still day 5 and 6 but I do feel pretty good up here right now

In the end I don't think the precip shield is going to be what the models have it in the medium range right now. It never is, it's going to be much more focused once the jet streak breaks out. Next up will be in a few days when the northern folks say trend north and the southern folks say trend south.

You will likely have the anafrontal precip (lift from the front in the north) and then the actual thunderstorms/trowal feature development somewhere in the southern sector.

[Cpv17]

I’m not sure why it’s ejecting out so fast like that. I figured with ridging on both coasts that would allow it slow down and dig further south…

[Ntxw]

I’m not sure why it’s ejecting out so fast like that. I figured with ridging on both coasts that would allow it slow down and dig further south…

It'll change a few more times by weekend's end.

Here's a look at western ejection of similar features. Not an analog but can see how things play.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2011/us0201.php

[WinterMax]

A Miserable, useless couple of dry hard freezes late next week here in South Louisiana. I'm not mad at it, but the precip dries up during frontal passage as usual here.

[wxman57]

A Miserable, useless couple of dry hard freezes late next week here in South Louisiana. I'm not mad at it, but the precip dries up during frontal passage as usual here.

You may get a line of thunderstorms ahead of the front next Thursday morning. Little chance of any frozen precip in SE TX or south LA, though. Models indicate a couple light freezes here in Houston next Fri/Sat. My wall seems to be working for Houston, anyway. No sign of any prolonged onshore flow the next couple of weeks. Just one cold front after the other. Beware believing the winter weather forecasts from the models. They always overdo such precip totals down south. Next Thursday may be interesting in the DFW area and eastern OK. We'll see. I'll make some wall fortifications this weekend.

[Ntxw]

6z GFS, at the surface is best run yet (for NTX). You'd think it looks more in line with a trough coming out neg tilt. Ceiling for this will be high. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a scenario play out like Superbowl week 2011.

[HockeyTx82]

6z GFS, at the surface is best run yet (for NTX). You'd think it looks more in line with a trough coming out neg tilt. Ceiling for this will be high. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a scenario play out like Superbowl week 2011.

Yup, and it's believable because just like that year the Cowboys are not in the Super Bowl. History does repeat itself.

[Portastorm]

I care much more about getting some rain at this point and would be happy to leave the snow/ice to our friends up north. We're drying up here in south central Texas.

[cheezyWXguy]

6z GFS, at the surface is best run yet (for NTX). You'd think it looks more in line with a trough coming out neg tilt. Ceiling for this will be high. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a scenario play out like Superbowl week 2011.

Agreed, I think the precip depiction doesn’t sufficiently match up with the pattern, as it seems like there would be quite a bit more, given the significantly slowed timing. If such a trend holds, I imagine qpf will bump up in a few days when smaller scale features can start to be resolved. One thing I do find encouraging is that the setup shown may lend itself to more snow after the initial round of mixed precip, since the warm nose only appears to breach 32 for the first few hours

[Ntxw]

6z GFS, at the surface is best run yet (for NTX). You'd think it looks more in line with a trough coming out neg tilt. Ceiling for this will be high. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a scenario play out like Superbowl week 2011.

Agreed, I think the precip depiction doesn’t sufficiently match up with the pattern, as it seems like there would be quite a bit more, given the significantly slowed timing. If such a trend holds, I imagine qpf will bump up in a few days when smaller scale features can start to be resolved. One thing I do find encouraging is that the setup shown may lend itself to more snow after the initial round of mixed precip, since the warm nose only appears to breach 32 for the first few hours

I'd be quite satisfied with the GFS trends. In fact up until about yesterday the GFS wasn't showing the cold to meet up with the moisture in north Texas. Largely in the 200+ range it was in central plains. It's trending colder with each run.

[South Texas Storms]

I care much more about getting some rain at this point and would be happy to leave the snow/ice to our friends up north. We're drying up here in south central Texas.

Agreed Porta. Thankfully we have some decent chances coming in the next week. Hopefully we can cash in on some liquid gold. The drought map keeps getting uglier with each passing week.

[Ntxw]

Man the ICON continues to be stubborn with the trough hanging back, give it that at least it is consistent.

[wxman57]

I care much more about getting some rain at this point and would be happy to leave the snow/ice to our friends up north. We're drying up here in south central Texas.

It's been dry here, too, but not THAT dry. 1.9" in December and 1.25" so far this month. Only 47" in SW Houston last year. Usually we're around 55".

[DonWrk]

Man the ICON continues to be stubborn with the trough hanging back, give it that at least it is consistent.

Very consistent…would be one for the ages!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

My official forecast in Montgomery County has stepped down bit by bit over the last 24 hours. My guess is that happens through next week.

I had one freeze and one 40 degree day. Now I have 4 consecutive hard freezes and Thursday through Sunday has dropped highs a good 7-10 degrees from yesterday morning forecast

[wxman57]

Man the ICON continues to be stubborn with the trough hanging back, give it that at least it is consistent.

Very consistent…would be one for the ages!

...and the 12Z ICON backs away from the Texas winter weather. Just a trace in the D-FW area late next week. Light freeze for Houston. Models do indicate 1-2" of rain along the mid to upper TX coast Monday, though.

Update: 12Z GFS appears to like the D-FW area with 2-3 inches of snow next week. Low around 10F up there next Friday? Down to 28-29 here in Houston in that run, which is about 60 deg too cold for me.

She won't pull it away THIS time, right?