Texas Winter 2022-2023

[harp]

The LRC is intriguing but I'm still very skeptical of it. Is there any peer reviewed research published on it I would be interested in reading up on it.

I honestly don’t know.

[orangeblood]

Finally the first sign we’ve seen in awhile from the Ensembles….higher heights across Alaska, keep building/ connect with the Ridge popping up over the Russian Ural Mountains and it’s Game On!!



Also, nothing “Nina” about this precip look

[Brent]

Finally the first sign we’ve seen in awhile from the Ensembles….higher heights across Alaska, keep building/ connect with the Ridge popping up over the Russian Ural Mountains and it’s Game On!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1672812000/1674194400-doIcwRk2RK0.png

Also, nothing “Nina” about this precip look
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/total_precip_inch/1672812000/1674194400-KcIRLLHvJCA.png

But I was told winter was over

[HockeyTx82]

Dipped down to 31F at the HockeyTx82 Weather Station in Ponder this morning.

Over, did you say over, nothing is over until we decide it is. Was it over when Wxman57 said highs in the 100's for Christmas.

Highs in the 100's on Christmas?

Forget it he's on a roll...........

[wxman57]

I see a lot of grasping at (cold) straws here as far as a return to winter. Ha! I'm in full control now. Perhaps no rather pleasant 101F in the near future, but I see above-normal temps for the next couple of weeks (for the most part). Hopefully, that continues through the winter and spring. Put away your winter coats and put on your shorts and flip-flops. Let's enjoy some nice, warm, winter weather!

[Edwards Limestone]

Dipped down to 31F at the HockeyTx82 Weather Station in Ponder this morning.

Over, did you say over, nothing is over until we decide it is. Was it over when Wxman57 said highs in the 100's for Christmas.

Highs in the 100's on Christmas?

Forget it he's on a roll...........

[Cpv17]

I see a lot of grasping at (cold) straws here as far as a return to winter. Ha! I'm in full control now. Perhaps no rather pleasant 101F in the near future, but I see above-normal temps for the next couple of weeks (for the most part). Hopefully, that continues through the winter and spring. Put away your winter coats and put on your shorts and flip-flops. Let's enjoy some nice, warm, winter weather!

http://wxman57.com/images/Heat.png

We will take any sort of positive news as it gets in regard to getting some cold weather down here. Even if it’s grasping at straws.

[Texas Snowman]

Heat Miser might be right about grasping at straws.

Of course, he may have also forgotten that he was perilously close to grasping at a few straws a couple of years ago. Like on February 4, 2021 (“500mb pattern in the 12Z GFS & Canadian does not look suitable for extended extreme cold in TX. Canadian has a big upper low over El Paso and southern NM vs. a ridge there on the GFS. No model agreement.”) as Ntxw and others were sounding the alarm about a total wall failure at the Canadian border.

I’m sure I’m about to get a strong rebuttal on this. But all that happened a short while later two years ago was one of the most historic extended extreme cold outbreaks in Texas weather history!!!

And much of the state got a lot of snow too!!!

On January 4, I will keep the flip flops stored away for now.

[Ntxw]

Of late we typically have to suffer one (boring or warm however you want to see it ) winter month. If you get really cold in December then January tends to be it. Last year it was December and Jan/Feb was colder. Might be Dec and Feb this year while Jan is the sacrificial one. Hope not but unscientific theory!

Ensembles don't look cold, still mild Pacific flow through 2 weeks. But long term models do try and build some cold over NA with no delivery pattern yet.

If we get any winter weather in the meantime it will have to be from a freak storm between warm events.

[Cerlin]

I’m going to be in Denver next week for AMS and of course, there’s no measurable snowfall forecasted for the entire duration of my stay. I went there in January of last year too—and nothing! What’s a guy gotta do to get some snow in Colorado?

[Haris]

I’m going to be in Denver next week for AMS and of course, there’s no measurable snowfall forecasted for the entire duration of my stay. I went there in January of last year too—and nothing! What’s a guy gotta do to get some snow in Colorado?

Mannn even better, when I went to Chicago in Feb 2017, it happened to be in the upper 70s during the 4 days I was there.

[Iceresistance]

This may be not Texas related, but oh my goodness!

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1610644848821915654

[weatherdude1108]

Well, rehashing the taste of Siberia we had, all my pipes made it through the Siberian blast. 13 was our coldest. I felt a tiny bit of moisture between the little bolt and line of the cold water shutoff valve in the master bath adjacent to outide wall. However, have not felt moisture since it warmed up. Probably condensation or pre-polar blast issue(?). I turned on sprinkler system valve at the sidewalk to test it after being completely shut off the last two weeks. No leaks. That was the last test. Most plants froze back. Only ones that didnt were the hollies and hawthorns. Hollies looked unphased. I scratched all the plant stems that died back, and there was green underneath, so I guess that's a good sign. Sago leaves green at the base of the fronds. Anywhoo.

Weird seeing all this dead/dormant plant life when it's 70-80 degrees outside.

[bubba hotep]

Of late we typically have to suffer one (boring or warm however you want to see it ) winter month. If you get really cold in December then January tends to be it. Last year it was December and Jan/Feb was colder. Might be Dec and Feb this year while Jan is the sacrificial one. Hope not but unscientific theory!

Ensembles don't look cold, still mild Pacific flow through 2 weeks. But long term models do try and build some cold over NA with no delivery pattern yet.

If we get any winter weather in the meantime it will have to be from a freak storm between warm events.

Jan 11-13 would be the 1st opportunity for a freak event.

[bubba hotep]

I’m going to be in Denver next week for AMS and of course, there’s no measurable snowfall forecasted for the entire duration of my stay. I went there in January of last year too—and nothing! What’s a guy gotta do to get some snow in Colorado?

Use my travel dates! I've gotten blasted on my last 3 trips. And even before that, I had two previous mountain climbing trips that ended up with me mostly sitting in trucks at trailheads as is sleeted and snowed in summer!

[Ntxw]

Of late we typically have to suffer one (boring or warm however you want to see it ) winter month. If you get really cold in December then January tends to be it. Last year it was December and Jan/Feb was colder. Might be Dec and Feb this year while Jan is the sacrificial one. Hope not but unscientific theory!

Ensembles don't look cold, still mild Pacific flow through 2 weeks. But long term models do try and build some cold over NA with no delivery pattern yet.

If we get any winter weather in the meantime it will have to be from a freak storm between warm events.

Jan 11-13 would be the 1st opportunity for a freak event.

Yep a couple of candidates Jan 10-20th. It is January we don't need -20F departure cold spell for it, modest with good ULL and timing. Maybe if we can catch a little wave break in the Pacific to space out the systems a tad.

[Cpv17]

Is Judah Cohen any good?

[Ntxw]

Is Judah Cohen any good?

He's a good read, his specialty somewhat is the stratosphere or at least opinions much on it. I do respect a lot of his posts and papers. But also is east-coast centric and sometimes Europe.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Is Judah Cohen any good?

I like reading his takes in Winter.

[harp]

What’s he saying?