ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Once again, NHC track moved right on top of mine. With SW-W sheared storms in the Gulf, they almost always move more quickly and turn sharper east than predicted. I have it inland in the Sarasota-Venice area around sunset tomorrow (always at night). Could be south of Venice. The farther south it tracks, the stronger it will remain up to landfall. SLOSH indicates 12-14 ft where the center meets the coast. Wouldn't be anything into Tampa Bay.

Do you still expect weakening prior to landfall ?

[ScottNAtlanta]

They are going to run out of "I" names at this rate

[Rail Dawg]

I would call that going out at the peak of a chasing career.

Thanks!

It was an outstanding experience and it took the other 15 chases to prepare me for it.

Cat 5 ain’t no joke. The newer chasers need to be careful. Easy to lose it all. I warned those 2 chasers in Michael who floated their car into the GOM that going to Mexico Beach was a grave mistake.

They went anyway and we saw the video of the waves crashing over their windshield as they filmed. Had to abandon their rig and nearly died.

Parking lot garages rock.

Chuck

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/djsaladmanwx/status/1574786558359703555




 https://twitter.com/____crf/status/1574788406495903747

[Stellar]

https://gifyu.com/image/S30bH

Dry air continuing to flow into the southeast and northern GOM...if this continues, could Ian continue its NE motion, cutting through the Keys and southern FL?

[Hurricane Mike]

What a beaut.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I would call that going out at the peak of a chasing career.

Thanks!

It was an outstanding experience and it took the other 15 chases to prepare me for it.

Cat 5 ain’t no joke. The newer chasers need to be careful. Easy to lose it all. I warned those 2 chasers in Michael who floated their car into the GOM that going to Mexico Beach was a grave mistake.

They went anyway and we saw the video of the waves crashing over their windshield as they filmed. Had to abandon their rig and nearly died.

Parking lot garages rock.

Chuck

Not many people go through a Cat 5 and live to tell the tale, unfortunately.

[jdray]

Once again, NHC track moved right on top of mine. With SW-W sheared storms in the Gulf, they almost always move more quickly and turn sharper east than predicted. I have it inland in the Sarasota-Venice area around sunset tomorrow (always at night). Could be south of Venice. The farther south it tracks, the stronger it will remain up to landfall. SLOSH indicates 12-14 ft where the center meets the coast. Wouldn't be anything into Tampa Bay.

I don't think I've ever dealt with the worst part of any Hurricane/TS during the day. It's always in the middle of the night it seems.

[Jelmergraaff]

Ian cleared out the eye in less than an hour after fully being over the GOM.

[Sanibel]

Cars are half-packed...I keep my most important items in Legal Boxes in my bedroom so that precaution is paying off big time right now and all I have to do is carry them downstairs and load them in to the SUV...I'll disconnect the computer and stow it right before I leave...


Have to get a big lawn bag and empty the refrigerator and freezer in to it...


Have to remember to think so I don't forget anything...I'm just very calmly loading the cars and not straining myself...Hurricane shutters are the last thing before I go...


If there are any Sanibel residents reading keep seriously in mind that this will be a surge-er and the low-lying Causeway will flood over and be impassable well before the hurricane gets here...


I think it is turning right for us for a direct hit...This is it man...


(That east wobble of the eye is probably a shear effect from contact with the trough)...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Dropsonde near the center was 972 with 72kt winds, and plane isn't reporting surface pressures.

[TheHurricaneGod]

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-continental-conus-08-15_31Z-20220927_map_-31-1n-10-100.md.gif

https://gifyu.com/image/S30bH

Dry air continuing to flow into the southeast and northern GOM...if this continues, could Ian continue its NE motion, cutting through the Keys and southern FL?

IIRC, the upper air soundings showed an earlier turn to the NE with the wind flow, which is the reason why Ian is moving more NE vs NNE. This means that the trough has already started interacting with Ian and has subsequently changed direction. But I didn't notice this until now, the dry air is pushing really far to the south.

[underthwx]

Tampa bay area survived Irma and Ian may not be much worse for Tampa bay depending on the evolution of the track. All the shear is further NW so probably not the best outcome imaginable.

The 11 am NHC update stresses the fact, that significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center of Ian...those hazards, coupled with a "very uncertain track", warrant a heightened sense of awareness, and appropriate action taken now, to protect yourselves...given the proximity of this cyclone to the warned areas, do now, what you need to do, before conditions deteriorate...

As sanibel stated earlier, he's treating it like a direct hit with hours and hours of bad conditions and is bugging out. People either treat these storms with respect or let luck decide their fate. We will know landfall location at the point of landfall.

Well said Tolakram, as I said before, it is disturbing to me, and quite frankly reckless to communicate such things to nervous and unsure residents during this event....I think it gives some people tunnel vision, and some may focus on the track line on the map, and not look at the big picture, and not understand the message that the NHC is stressing in its discussions, that Ian's effects will be widespread, and Ian is a dangerous hurricane, stay updated with the weather professionals at the National Hurricane Center, and heed their warnings appropriately...

[ScottNAtlanta]

Cars are half-packed...I keep my most important items in Legal Boxes in my bedroom so that precaution is paying off big time right now and all I have to do is carry them downstairs and load them in to the SUV...I'll disconnect the computer and stow it right before I leave...


Have to get a big lawn bag and empty the refrigerator and freezer in to it...


Have to remember to think so I don't forget anything...I'm just very calmly loading the cars and not straining myself...Hurricane shutters are the last thing before I go...


If there are any Sanibel residents reading keep seriously in mind that this will be a surge-er and the low-lying Causeway will flood over and be impassable well before the hurricane gets here...


I think it is turning right for us for a direct hit...This is it man...


(That east wobble of the eye is probably a shear effect from contact with the trough)...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Get photos of everything valuable with your cell phone for any insurance claims you might need to make (that includes the outside in the event of outside damage).

[Jelmergraaff]

Dropsonde near the center was 972 with 72kt winds, and plane isn't reporting surface pressures.

Based on SFMR and geopotential data at FL, I'm quite sure (rapid) intensification has resumed.

[Rail Dawg]

Not many people go through a Cat 5 and live to tell the tale, unfortunately.

It took me years of chasing to be comfortable in a Cat 5.

Started off with 1’s and 2’s. Made mistakes but learned steadily.

These newer chasers are jumping right into the heavy action. It’s not just the weather it’s the human element of people about to lose everything they own. The panic you see at gas stations. The looting afterwards.

I chain-sawed my way out of Michael and met the first-responders chain-sawing their way in.

It was a good 16 chases. Glad to be done I learned a lot.

Chuck

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1200 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...12 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE OF IAN...

Radar imagery from Key West shows that the center of Ian is located
over the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Hourly updates of Ian's
position will continue as long as the eye is easily trackable by
land-based radar.

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 83.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Reinhart

[tolakram]

[Jelmergraaff]

Everything is hinting at intensification at this point when comparing the last 2 recon passes. FL-winds higher during the last pass, SFMR as well. Higher temperature at FL and lower Geopotential in the center.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I cannot stress this enough, but if you are evacuating, please get photos or take video of everything of value in your home as well as the outside. With damage from these storms things unfortunately get washed away, and if you have no record of what was there you are at the mercy of the insurance company. If you have photos as proof you will be one step ahead when it comes time to file claims.

Actually...this is not bad advice to ANYONE! A couple times a year just take inventory with your cell phone. Earthquakes, tornadoes, floods, asteroid (little one), or whatever...if you have a record you are way ahead when it comes to filing claims