Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Chris_in_Tampa]

From Air Force recon, unofficial HDOB extrapolated pressures...

2:12:30Z - 996.3 mb (22.82N 78.38W)
3:46:30Z - 992.4 mb (23.35N 78.38W)

Indicating at least a due north movement. In fact since the 996.3 mb was also found a few times west of that first position, it is either a reformation partially of the center or even an eastward component.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010407
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 30 20071101
035530 2345N 07820W 8418 01486 9980 +176 +176 098034 034 027 009 00
035600 2347N 07820W 8423 01481 9989 +169 +169 100037 038 026 009 00
035630 2349N 07820W 8420 01486 9980 +181 +181 098041 041 026 009 00
035700 2350N 07820W 8417 01493 9984 +181 +181 100042 043 026 009 00
035730 2352N 07820W 8424 01488 9990 +179 +176 103039 039 022 009 00
035800 2354N 07821W 8418 01497 9991 +180 +173 106038 039 021 010 00
035830 2356N 07821W 8417 01498 9993 +180 +171 105041 041 023 009 00
035900 2357N 07821W 8420 01495 9996 +176 +170 108039 040 023 010 00
035930 2359N 07821W 8420 01497 9998 +178 +169 111031 033 022 009 00
040000 2401N 07821W 8420 01499 0001 +175 +175 110027 028 021 009 00
040030 2403N 07821W 8426 01495 0004 +173 +173 102029 029 019 009 00
040100 2404N 07821W 8418 01504 0005 +173 +173 102028 029 014 009 00
040130 2406N 07821W 8422 01502 0010 +167 +167 101028 028 017 009 00
040200 2408N 07821W 8417 01508 0010 +169 +169 103028 029 015 009 00
040230 2409N 07821W 8422 01504 0012 +166 +166 107031 032 018 010 00
040300 2411N 07821W 8420 01504 0013 +166 +166 107030 031 017 010 00
040330 2413N 07821W 8418 01508 0015 +163 +163 107031 032 017 011 00
040400 2415N 07821W 8419 01508 0014 +169 +169 108030 031 018 010 00
040430 2416N 07822W 8420 01509 0015 +169 +169 108031 032 016 010 00
040500 2418N 07822W 8422 01509 0017 +167 +167 110030 031 016 009 00
$$
;

Going due north now.

[HURAKAN]

['CaneFreak]

I would like to get some of your opinions, fellow ST2K members....Any indications of Noel's latest movement and location of center from Recon and hurricane hunters?

Someone please explain the implications of the following image...the steering currents from the Atlantic high pressure still look to be in place from east to west....

Ok, first of all you have an old image there. Read your label. 1500 UTC is 11 am. Just an FYI

Second of all, the ridge is weakening and heading to the east which is implied by the cold front moving from west to east in the image you posted. Everything is finally in place for the system to head NE IMHO. It may take another 12 to 24 hours to see an increase in forward speed but I do believe the linear collision between the trough and Noel is indeed occuring or very imminent.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Are there any radar images available to figure out if there are hints of an eye forming?

[ericinmia]

['CaneFreak]

Thank you kindly.

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KNHC 010414
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 01/03:46:40Z
B. 23 deg 21 min N
078 deg 23 min W
C. 850 mb 1372 m
D. 44 kt
E. 037 deg 028 nm
F. 130 deg 044 kt
G. 036 deg 028 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 17 C/ 1537 m
J. 22 C/ 1533 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF304 1016A NOEL OB 10
MAX FL WIND 47 KT NE QUAD 03:12Z.
;

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010417
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 31 20071101
040530 2420N 07822W 8422 01509 0019 +166 +166 106028 029 018 010 00
040600 2422N 07822W 8418 01513 0018 +165 +165 107027 029 018 010 00
040630 2423N 07822W 8420 01510 0019 +166 +166 107029 030 018 009 00
040700 2425N 07822W 8419 01511 0019 +166 +166 105030 031 022 009 00
040730 2427N 07822W 8420 01513 0022 +165 +165 102028 028 021 009 00
040800 2428N 07822W 8420 01511 0021 +165 +165 108028 029 022 009 00
040830 2430N 07822W 8419 01511 0024 +159 +159 109029 029 022 008 03
040900 2432N 07822W 8423 01509 0022 +164 +164 109030 031 023 008 03
040930 2434N 07822W 8422 01511 0025 +162 +162 107033 035 999 999 03
041000 2435N 07822W 8420 01514 0025 +164 +164 106032 032 999 999 03
041030 2437N 07822W 8424 01513 0028 +163 +163 105033 034 999 999 03
041100 2439N 07822W 8419 01517 0032 +158 +158 104034 035 105 002 03
041130 2440N 07823W 8425 01514 0035 +155 +155 103029 033 142 000 03
041200 2442N 07823W 8424 01517 0034 +158 +158 101025 026 120 002 03
041230 2444N 07823W 8419 01520 0032 +161 +161 100024 025 033 007 00
041300 2446N 07823W 8419 01521 0039 +153 +153 103025 025 028 010 00
041330 2447N 07823W 8418 01522 0040 +151 +151 110027 031 028 011 00
041400 2449N 07823W 8422 01516 0035 +159 +159 111033 036 028 010 00
041430 2451N 07823W 8424 01511 0032 +163 +163 107036 037 999 999 03
041500 2451N 07825W 8421 01524 0033 +165 +165 099037 039 030 009 03
$$
;

More unreliable SFMR data as it passed over islands.

[HURAKAN]

Last for me!! See you in the morning, it should be interesting.

[HURAKAN]

More rainfall coming. NICE!!!

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010427
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 32 20071101
041530 2451N 07827W 8417 01524 0031 +165 +165 095035 037 031 009 00
041600 2451N 07829W 8419 01521 0032 +164 +164 095033 033 032 009 00
041630 2451N 07831W 8420 01520 0032 +164 +164 094033 033 033 009 00
041700 2451N 07834W 8420 01520 0032 +165 +165 090034 035 033 009 00
041730 2451N 07836W 8421 01519 0031 +165 +165 088035 035 033 009 00
041800 2451N 07838W 8418 01522 0033 +164 +164 086035 035 033 009 00
041830 2451N 07840W 8422 01520 0031 +165 +165 078034 034 033 009 00
041900 2451N 07842W 8422 01521 0033 +165 +165 072033 034 033 010 00
041930 2451N 07844W 8418 01525 0033 +165 +165 072032 032 034 010 00
042000 2451N 07846W 8420 01521 0033 +164 +164 070033 033 036 010 00
042030 2451N 07848W 8422 01520 0034 +163 +163 067034 034 036 009 00
042100 2451N 07851W 8422 01520 0034 +162 +162 065035 035 036 009 00
042130 2451N 07853W 8420 01521 0034 +164 +164 066035 035 037 009 00
042200 2451N 07855W 8422 01520 0034 +164 +164 072035 035 036 009 00
042230 2451N 07857W 8420 01522 0035 +164 +164 071036 037 034 009 00
042300 2450N 07859W 8418 01524 0035 +164 +164 067039 040 034 009 00
042330 2450N 07901W 8423 01520 0035 +161 +161 072038 039 036 009 00
042400 2450N 07903W 8418 01526 0036 +160 +160 072039 039 035 010 00
042430 2450N 07906W 8420 01522 0036 +161 +161 069037 038 033 009 00
042500 2450N 07908W 8418 01524 0036 +161 +161 064038 039 033 009 00
$$

[cycloneye]

More rainfall coming. NICE!!!

Although not plenty,but good news that at least some is going to Lake.O.

[destruction92]

High pressure still over Atlantic...although the western periphery has weakened, although not enough for a northerly movement to begin just yet...maybe in 12 hours....as of now, steering currents from the 1031 mb High Pressure entrenched off of the U.S. east coast supports Noel to move NW.

[Jevo]

Well you better relish this name Noel because it has killed 81 people and counting... Its going to be retired..

Funny how we gripe about .1 degree shifts and forget about the people living in mud tonight because of where the storm has been...

IMO I hope the b**ch fizzels tonight and you all wake up tomorrow and become sad pandas

[RL3AO]

A Noel retirement is not a certainty. In fact, based on just what we know now I don't think it would be retired. Now if more data comes out in the next few weeks, than maybe I will change my mind.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010437
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 33 20071101
042530 2450N 07910W 8420 01521 0036 +163 +158 063041 042 032 009 00
042600 2450N 07912W 8420 01521 0035 +165 +157 058044 046 033 009 00
042630 2450N 07914W 8420 01522 0035 +162 +158 058046 047 033 009 00
042700 2450N 07916W 8422 01519 0035 +160 +158 059047 048 033 009 00
042730 2450N 07919W 8420 01521 0035 +160 +157 060048 049 034 009 00
042800 2450N 07921W 8420 01522 0036 +164 +149 060049 050 033 009 00
042830 2450N 07923W 8423 01520 0037 +164 +150 060048 048 034 009 00
042900 2450N 07925W 8423 01522 0036 +165 +146 063048 048 035 009 00
042930 2450N 07927W 8416 01528 0039 +162 +145 063047 048 037 009 00
043000 2450N 07930W 8419 01526 0039 +164 +146 064049 050 036 009 00
043030 2450N 07932W 8422 01524 0039 +164 +146 063049 050 035 009 00
043100 2450N 07934W 8423 01524 0040 +161 +149 062049 050 038 008 00
043130 2449N 07936W 8418 01527 0039 +160 +149 061051 052 038 009 00
043200 2449N 07938W 8424 01522 0040 +160 +146 060051 052 037 009 00
043230 2449N 07941W 8419 01528 0041 +161 +145 061052 052 039 008 00
043300 2449N 07943W 8423 01524 0041 +161 +145 061053 053 039 009 00
043330 2449N 07945W 8423 01525 0042 +160 +143 062054 055 036 009 00
043400 2449N 07947W 8415 01530 0040 +161 +144 063055 055 999 999 03
043430 2447N 07948W 8422 01525 0040 +161 +149 061050 052 999 999 03
043500 2446N 07947W 8427 01519 0041 +160 +150 061046 048 031 009 00
$$
;

55 kt FL - supports current intensity

[Jevo]

A Noel retirement is not a certainty. In fact, based on just what we know now I don't think it would be retired. Now if more data comes out in the next few weeks, than maybe I will change my mind.

maybe then we should talk about storms that have been retired and have killed less people than Noel


Stan 2005 80 – 100 Mexico, El Salvador. Guatemala
Eloise 1975 80 Greater Antilles, Eastern United States
Betsy 1965 76 Louisiana
Carol 1954 60 New England
Opal 1995 59 Guatemala, Mexico
Beulah 1967 58 – 59 Texas, Mexico, Martinique
Floyd 1999 57 North Carolina
Hugo 1989 49 – 56 Guadeloupe, Montserrat, South Carolina
Cesar 1996 51 Central America
Carla 1961 46 Texas
Dennis 2005 42 Haiti, Cuba, Alabama - Florida
Allison 2001 41 Southern United States
Hilda 1964 38 Louisiana
Iris 2001 31+ Placencia, Belize
Andrew 1992 26 Florida, Louisiana
Fran 1996 26 North Carolina, Northeast United States
Connie 1955 25 Eastern United States
Keith 2000 24 Central America
Wilma 2005 23 Haiti, Quintana Roo, Florida
Gracie 1959 22 Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia
Alicia 1983 21 Texas
Hortense 1996 21 Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico
Edna 1954 20 New England
Luis 1995 17 St. Martin, Caribbean
Lenny 1999 17 Lesser Antilles, Colombia
Michelle 2001 17 Honduras, Cuba, Nicaragua
Celia 1970 16 Texas, Cuba
Isabel 2003 16 Eastern United States
Charley 2004 15 Florida, Jamaica
Roxanne 1995 14 Mexico
Lili 2002 13 St. Vincent, Jamaica, Haiti
Klaus 1990 11 Martinique, Southeast United States
Anita 1977 10 Mexico
Ione 1955 8 North Carolina
Gloria 1985 8 Northeast United States
Bob 1991 8 Northeast United States
Marilyn 1995 8 St. Thomas, USVI, Puerto Rico
Fabian 2003 8 Bermuda, Atlantic coast
Rita 2005 7 Texas - Louisiana
Frances 2004 7 Florida
Frederic 1979 5 Mississippi-Alabama
Isidore 2002 4 Mexico, Louisiana
Juan 2003 4 Atlantic Canada
Dora 1964 1 Eastern United States
Carmen 1974 1 Louisiana
Elena 1985 0 Mississippi