Global model runs discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
I see 3 TCs there.
One which is regenerated Rina,one which pravels up the Gulf Stream and quickly becomes extratropical and one developing at the end of run near Nicaragua.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
I thought this thread was not going to have more posting of runs until next April or May,but GFS is showing something on the long range.You know the drill on these long range runs.
11/3/11 12z GFS Loop
11/3/11 12z GFS Loop
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Per the GFS, a low moves offshore the SE coast and remains out there for a few days:
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php ... ion=us&t=l
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php ... ion=us&t=l
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
I know it's the very long range but most of the models are developing a low in the western Caribbean in 6-7 days, the models with the longest range make the low a tropical cyclone, of course it may not verify but it's a sign that conditions will be favorable. The GFS at 276 hours and the Euro at 240 hours:
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- cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
That 00z GFS run was aparently a bad feedback as the scenario it painted has not repeated in the 06z and 12z runs. What GFS continues to show is a EPAC development that ECMWF also has.
Uploaded by Imageshack.us
Uploaded by Imageshack.us
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All's nice and quiet
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Most models now show both an EPAC system and a central Atlantic system. Can't link to any image sites here at work, but check out my favorite model page and have a look.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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M a r k
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- MGC
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
That central Atlantic low looks to be becoming a bit better organized....next ATL Invest?...MGC
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
MGC wrote:That central Atlantic low looks to be becoming a bit better organized....next ATL Invest?...MGC
Already at 10% -
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112236&hilit=
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
The models are spinning something up 48 - 54 hours from now just NE of PR.
Current models link:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Current Shear (tendency):
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
Current models link:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Current Shear (tendency):
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
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M a r k
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- wxman57
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Probably less of a chance of development than the last disturbance in the region.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
What I am doing posting model runs on this thread dedicated to runs of tropical scenarios on late January? When I saw this I said, na,is Febuary so is not tropical,but it has been showing up in recent runs of GFS looking like a semi hybrid thing. And is long range so you know the drill about that.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
It will be back and active in the blink of an eye. Its nearly February, so only a few more months to go before 2012 season comes to terrorize us.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Maybe our Summer will be like our Winter has been......nice and mild.
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