Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Portastorm]

I'm throwing this out there for discussion ... but does anyone see credence in the UKMet, which shows the "best" of both worlds (cold and precip) for Texas early next week? The Ukie seems closer to the Canadian than either the GFS (warmer, wet) or Euro (pipe-busting cold).

[southerngale]

If this has already been posted, I missed it.




Portastorm... I believe that someone posted yesterday that the UKMET has performed well this winter. I'll have to go back and look for the details, but I would love to see it verify. That is indeed the best of both worlds.

[MississippiWx]

Would someone post what the UKMET is showing? I can only find a run that goes out to 120 hours. Hate to be the pessimist, but trends are bad on the models. EURO just shows a powerful low pressure developing over Oklahoma that moves Northeast into the Great Lakes, followed by extreme cold and dry weather. GFS shows a weak disturbance developing with not much cold air. The last run of the GEM that I saw looked similar to the GFS, with slightly colder air.

Extreme North Texas could end up with wrap around snow if the EURO verifies, but it wouldn't be much with such strong cold air advection moving down from the Plains. We really need the models to go back to what they were showing with the cut-off low digging into Central and South TX, then moving out into the Gulf.

[Portastorm]

The "someone" was me!

The Ukie has been the second-best performing model at the 5-day and 6-day range, better than the GFS but second to King Euro.

For MississippiWx ... this is the 0z Ukie at 144 hrs:



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[Tireman4]

The "someone" was me!

The Ukie has been the second-best performing model at the 5-day and 6-day range, better than the GFS but second to King Euro.

Do you think that the Ukie could sponsor the evening Webcast from the Portastorm Weather Center?

[southerngale]

The "someone" was me!

The Ukie has been the second-best performing model at the 5-day and 6-day range, better than the GFS but second to King Euro.

lol - well, I guess I don't have to look up the details, then.


I hear ya, MississippiWx. The latest trends regarding wintry fun and awesomeness are not looking good. I hate to see cold weather wasted like that.

[Portastorm]

The "someone" was me!

The Ukie has been the second-best performing model at the 5-day and 6-day range, better than the GFS but second to King Euro.

Do you think that the Ukie could sponsor the evening Webcast from the Portastorm Weather Center?

We'll see how the 12z runs look. PWC has already been contacted by Grey Goose Vodka about sponsoring this afternoon's weather briefing. They say their slogan is "Be sophisticated in your taste like the Europeans, drink Grey Goose."

[Ntxw]

Don't give up faith on the wintry precip. We are still out of range on shortwaves clearly (144+ hours), it hasn't even formed yet. Cold is more assuring because it currently does exist. First you gotta get the cold air down or else it doesn't matter what shortwave passes by, UKMET does the best at blending everything together imo. Not saying it is the correct solution, but it is a good compromise between the model spreads. Just 24 hours ago people were ready to write off the cold air to the north and east

[MississippiWx]

The "someone" was me!

The Ukie has been the second-best performing model at the 5-day and 6-day range, better than the GFS but second to King Euro.

Do you think that the Ukie could sponsor the evening Webcast from the Portastorm Weather Center?

We'll see how the 12z runs look. PWC has already been contacted by Grey Goose Vodka about sponsoring this afternoon's weather briefing. They say their slogan is "Be sophisticated in your taste like the Europeans, drink Grey Goose."

Lol Some of us might need that vodka to help drink our winter weather sorrows away!

[Portastorm]

BTW, I'm sure we're all watching the 12z GFS roll out. Looks colder through 138 hours, wouldn't you agree?

[srainhoutx]

BTW, I'm sure we're all watching the 12z GFS roll out. Looks colder through 138 hours, wouldn't you agree?

Yep, and moisture as well.

[MississippiWx]

Just for discussion, but doesn't it seem fishy for the EURO to be showing a storm developing over Oklahoma, then moving to the Great Lakes with such a strong high pressure to the north and northwest of the potential storm? Would that cold moving down south not tend to suppress a storm system?

[Tireman4]

The "someone" was me!

The Ukie has been the second-best performing model at the 5-day and 6-day range, better than the GFS but second to King Euro.

Do you think that the Ukie could sponsor the evening Webcast from the Portastorm Weather Center?

We'll see how the 12z runs look. PWC has already been contacted by Grey Goose Vodka about sponsoring this afternoon's weather briefing. They say their slogan is "Be sophisticated in your taste like the Europeans, drink Grey Goose."

Let us not have your meteorologists "Likkered" up before the afternoon weather briefing...LOL

[Ntxw]

Just for discussion, but doesn't it seem fishy for the EURO to be showing a storm developing over Oklahoma, then moving to the Great Lakes with such a strong high pressure to the north and northwest of the potential storm? Would that cold moving down south not tend to suppress a storm system?

Super cold air masses is usually always accompanied by a big storm somewhere. You're right in the sense it should be suppressed but that depends on the shortwave, a stronger storm (cutoff low) would more likely track southward while a weaker system would probably only aid in light post frontal precip via lifting further north.

[MississippiWx]

By the way, this discussion is from my NWS office here in Mississippi (JAN). The reason why I'm posting it is because a lot of times when we get snow here in MS, you guys back in TX usually had it the day before us:

FROM LATE MON INTO WED...THE GFS AND EURO DIFFER ON HOW THEY AMPLIFY
THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND ULTIMATELY HANDLE THE ENERGY DIVING DOWN
THE LEE SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND EVENTUALLY SURGING SOUTH SOME
ARCTIC AIR. THE EURO IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE
CANADIAN. THE EURO IS OFFERING MORE CONTINUITY AND IS THE MORE
ACCEPTED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST. THE TRULY COLD AIR LOOKS TO
ARRIVE LATE TUE INTO WED AND HAVE TRENDED THE TEMP FORECAST TO WELL
BELOW AVG FOR THIS PERIOD. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST FOLLOWED THE GUID
PRECIP CHANCES AND KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AS RAIN. THIS MID WEEK
TIMEFRAME WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS SOME WINTRY TYPE PRECIP
COULD EASILY MATERIALIZE. /CME/

[MississippiWx]

Just for discussion, but doesn't it seem fishy for the EURO to be showing a storm developing over Oklahoma, then moving to the Great Lakes with such a strong high pressure to the north and northwest of the potential storm? Would that cold moving down south not tend to suppress a storm system?

Super cold air masses is usually always accompanied by a big storm somewhere. You're right in the sense it should be suppressed but that depends on the shortwave, a stronger storm (cutoff low) would more likely track southward while a weaker system would probably only aid in light post frontal precip via lifting further north.

In that case, the EURO could be pretty far off with the placement of the low then? It's showing a powerful low racing into the Great Lakes during that time frame.

[Ntxw]

Btw I find this a little odd. That tells you FW is very much warm bias lol. Why would you favor the GFS temps (outlier) when all of the ensembles is on the other side of the bandwagon?

THE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW WITH
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING NEAR BAJA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE BOTH INDICATING
MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE MUCH COLDER
BUT DRIER SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS IS WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS AND KEEP
SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT WARM BIAS TOWARDS THE
GFS.

[wxman22]

GFS looks to be a compromise between the two colder air and moister, but not over abundant moisture or cold air.The setup also looks like an ice storm setup.

[Ntxw]

GFS is definitely trending colder. Starting to resemble more of the 500mb pattern. Still too warm but getting there. Cut off low sits and spins in NM.

[srainhoutx]

GFS looks to be a compromise between the two colder air and moister, but not over abundant moisture or cold air.The setup also looks like an ice storm setup.

Well in GFS world we have 54 hours+ of moisture.