ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Here's the topographical map.

the tallest mountains are 8,000 to 10,000 feet. Very disruptive to a TC!

Yes, but it looks like it'll make landfall to the SW of the worst mountains in the middle of the island. Will still disrupt inflow into the core of the storm. But with such a large circulation envelope and a LIKELY landfall to the west of that area, I don't think it will really mess him up. Question is where does he pop out on the other side of the island. Center looks to be a bit to the NE of forecast points, but as always, may just be a wobble. Those wobbles make a lot of differnce to us here in SE FL though. Just my opinion, as an amateur, as always!

[VeniceInlet]

Have not posted here since 2005, just wanted to say thanks for the great job here on Isaac, much appreciated. Have been watching the boards for several days now and will continue until the power goes out!

[tropicwatch]

Some of the outer rain bands are starting to show up on the radar out of GITMO. Should have a good look at it over the next 48hrs.

[meriland23]

do you think it is unlikely it would reach cat 4 status? jw

[SouthFLTropics]

Based on visible it appears that Isaac is going to blow by the next forecast point to the right and arrive at it about 6 hours ahead of time. This is significant because the faster he moves the more chance he has to go north before SFLA. JMHO.

SFT

[pgoss11]

Based on visible it appears that Isaac is going to blow by the next forecast point to the right and arrive at it about 6 hours ahead of time. This is significant because the faster he moves the more chance he has to go north before SFLA. JMHO.

SFT

Yeah..just saw that.. just love the surprise element with all these tropical systems!

[ozonepete]

Here's the topographical map.

the tallest mountains are 8,000 to 10,000 feet. Very disruptive to a TC!

Yes, but it looks like it'll make landfall to the SW of the worst mountains in the middle of the island. Will still disrupt inflow into the core of the storm. But with such a large circulation envelope and a LIKELY landfall to the west of that area, I don't think it will really mess him up. Question is where does he pop out on the other side of the island. Center looks to be a bit to the NE of forecast points, but as always, may just be a wobble. Those wobbles make a lot of differnce to us here in SE FL though. Just my opinion, as an amateur, as always!

Good points, wxboy, but remember there's more mountains in eastern Cuba to cross so the disruption will be for 2 days. Although we will have to watch the forward speed. Any higher speeds will cut down on the length of time over land of course.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Starting to get worried about this down here...

[Extratropical94]

18Z Best Track - up to 55 knots:

AL, 09, 2012082418, , BEST, 0, 168N, 714W, 55, 995, TS

[SFLcane]

Where is Steve Weagle?--Remember Miami NWS is literally down the hall from NHC, just sayin..


ALL EYES THEN TURN TO TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. ISAAC HAS BEGUN ITS
NORTHWEST TURN AND WILL MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA AND TOWARDS EASTERN
CUBA OVERNIGHT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO
THE EAST FROM RUNS YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST
WEST...WITH THE STORM MOVING CLOSE TO THE CURRENT NHC OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK. THE OTHER MODELS NOW BRING THE STORM INTO THE
MIDDLE KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW LITTLE INTERACTION WITH CUBA. THIS COULD BE VERY SIGNIFICANT
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...BECAUSE THE STORM WOULD BE ABLE TO SPEND MUCH
MORE TIME OVER WATER. LOOKING AT THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HURRICANE
MODELS...THEY WOULD BE INDICATING A HURRICANE POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO THE MIDDLE KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. SO THERE IS A LOT MORE
UNCERTAINTY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS IS ONLY ONE SUITE OF MODEL
RUNS...BUT THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS TO BE INCREASING.

Interesting...

[pgoss11]

18Z Best Track - up to 55 knots:

AL, 09, 2012082418, , BEST, 0, 168N, 714W, 55, 995, TS

Slow but steady strengthening

[meriland23]

this thing is really intesifying..fast,,

[Senobia]

Steering currents from The Weather Channel:

[Aric Dunn]

its may make it to hurricane before hati after all. possibly by the time this recon plane is done.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Here's the topographical map.

the tallest mountains are 8,000 to 10,000 feet. Very disruptive to a TC!

Yes, but it looks like it'll make landfall to the SW of the worst mountains in the middle of the island. Will still disrupt inflow into the core of the storm. But with such a large circulation envelope and a LIKELY landfall to the west of that area, I don't think it will really mess him up. Question is where does he pop out on the other side of the island. Center looks to be a bit to the NE of forecast points, but as always, may just be a wobble. Those wobbles make a lot of differnce to us here in SE FL though. Just my opinion, as an amateur, as always!

Good points, wxboy, but remember there's more mountains in eastern Cuba to cross so the disruption will be for 2 days. Although we will have to watch the forward speed. Any higher speeds will cut down on the length of time over land of course.

If it goes on the NHC cousr from 11:00 AM. I suspect the NHC will shift a little right at 5:00

[HurricaneAndrew92]

65mph at 5, moving further north my forecast on page 154 is doig well so far, no guarentees for the future though

[pgoss11]

this thing is really intesifying..fast,,

If Isaac doesn't have much land interaction with Cuba..things are going to get VERY interesting !

[pgoss11]

Steering currents from The Weather Channel:

That's quite a big weakness there

[HurricaneAndrew92]

For those just looking, our 65mph TS according to BT, pushing dry air out or building more convection in the gap!:





Wrapping nicely, too! If we have hurricane by 5, it's pretty much RI(25 kts change).

[HurricaneAndrew92]

My guess, at 5 a 70mph TS with 993mb with a right track shift.