ATL: IRMA - Models

[stormreader]

Finally! An out to sea run.. Figured this was coming. It was just a matter of time

An out to sea run does not mean an out to sea storm. We're still in the 10 day range here. It looks pretty certain that Irma will be very close to Florida. That's about it when it comes to confidence. In that case, I think the odds are weighted in favor of a U.S. Landfall. Going to keep my own personal "Irma window" open for Cape Fear North Carolina--to--North Cuban Coast. Still think there is a reasonable chance that Irma misses trough altogether. Thus keeping that southerly track as an option.

7 days*

Not 7 days yet. At 7 day point we can reevaluate some. But I'm beginning to get the feeling that with the extremely delicate nature of the trough-ridge set-up that there will still be uncertainty even then. My own gut tells me that if there is still uncertainty at that point (we'll see) then you have to begin favoring the Atlantic ridge to be stronger. Either pushing Irma back NW to Carolina's, allowing for continued WNW to S Fl, or a little westerly push through the Fl Straits into the GOM. I see each of these three scenarios as reasonable and more likely than out to sea.

[GCANE]

Latest COAMPS now has a brief intensification to Cat 5 before making the turn north.

[blp]

GFS is too fast for a recurve. Trough draws it into the coast. EC sped up slightly, to a speed just right to allow for a recurve. Any faster, and it hits the coast. Any slower, Irma misses the trough. Chances may not be good that it can repeat this next time

Very good observation. That Euro run threaded the needle to make OTS. I think that might be the eastern most run we see of the Euro from here on out.

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS is too fast for a recurve. Trough draws it into the coast. EC sped up slightly, to a speed just right to allow for a recurve. Any faster, and it hits the coast. Any slower, Irma misses the trough. Chances may not be good that it can repeat this next time

Very good observation. That Euro run threaded the needle to make OTS. I think that might be the eastern most run we see of the Euro from here on out.

I mean it had little room for that scenario and it did it. Lowkey an insane and very dangerous run.

[forecasterjack]

GFS is too fast for a recurve. Trough draws it into the coast. EC sped up slightly, to a speed just right to allow for a recurve. Any faster, and it hits the coast. Any slower, Irma misses the trough. Chances may not be good that it can repeat this next time

Very good observation. That Euro run threaded the needle to make OTS. I think that might be the eastern most run we see of the Euro from here on out.

It's hard for me to put into words how darn close that euro run was. Holy cow. So. Close. OTS would be threading wayyyy more of a needle than a hit at this point. Interesting as it's usually the other way around.

[GCANE]

Latest COAMPS
10m wind field, current and 120h out

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF ensembles. Uncertainty abounds.

That looks further east to me. Am I wrong? Where is the 0z EPS?

[Steve]

Through 7 days, intensity looks to level off in the interim - mostly Cat 3/4 but a couple at Cat 5

https://www.cyclocane.com/irma-spaghetti-models/

Mimic shows it's interacting and ingesting dry air with a large connection to the far east Atlantic. This should keep intensity mostly in check for the next couple of days at least.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[meriland29]

So Euro is now out to sea while GFS hits the US? Very odd. Did Euro build up that ridge that GFS has been estimating?

[otowntiger]

ECMWF ensembles. Uncertainty abounds.

It seems that the majority of those are very good runs, taking it out to sea. There are of many that do not. I'd like to see a side by side comparison to an earlier run. It seems to me that more of these are its than what I remember snd/or have been reading here.

[stormreader]

GFS is too fast for a recurve. Trough draws it into the coast. EC sped up slightly, to a speed just right to allow for a recurve. Any faster, and it hits the coast. Any slower, Irma misses the trough. Chances may not be good that it can repeat this next time

I agree. At this early stage, with what we are reasonably confident about as far as the storm's approach to the Bahamas, it's hard to give the out to sea track more than a very small probability.
Very good observation. That Euro run threaded the needle to make OTS. I think that might be the eastern most run we see of the Euro from here on out.

It's hard for me to put into words how darn close that euro run was. Holy cow. So. Close. OTS would be threading wayyyy more of a needle than a hit at this point. Interesting as it's usually the other way around.

[forecasterjack]

ECMWF ensembles. Uncertainty abounds.

That looks further east to me. Am I wrong? Where is the 0z EPS?

0Z

[forecasterjack]

So Euro is now out to sea while GFS hits the US? Very odd. Did Euro build up that ridge that GFS has been estimating?

Compare ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and Australian 500mb forecasts using the blue buttons at the top of the image: https://weather.us/model-charts/standar ... 0600z.html

[stormreader]

Sorry, must have mixed up my reply to BP post. I made the comment "I agree......"

[Aric Dunn]

Looking closely at the Euro its is nearly out to see because a 500mb plus low deveops over virginia just as IRMA approaches NC and shoves it nne.. looks like a transient feature. next run likely will be back west again.\

[forecasterjack]

Looking closely at the Euro its is nearly out to see because a 500mb plus low deveops over virginia just as IRMA approaches NC and shoves it nne.. looks like a transient feature. next run likely will be back west again.

If that low gets absolutely any stronger, it'll suck Irma right in. Such a volatile setup

[Blown Away]

GFS is too fast for a recurve. Trough draws it into the coast. EC sped up slightly, to a speed just right to allow for a recurve. Any faster, and it hits the coast. Any slower, Irma misses the trough. Chances may not be good that it can repeat this next time

Thx for giving sound opinion not based on the model run of the moment... No offense to these other mets, but there opinion is updated with each model run and quickly tweeted out...

[Alyono]

Im not him.. but the answer is a definite yes !

just no Aric.

Why not Alyono? So far we've seen during the short term forecasts that it's a bit slower and further WSW, anything after 5 days is a toss-up. I feel that everyone along the eastern seaboard from SE FL to Maine are at equal chances of some sort of effect.

models are trending FASTER not slower. Storm is moving at a good clip. The idea of the storm moving slow enough so that the ridge forces it into Florida are about gone now. Only chance is for this to move at 18 kts and get to Florida before it encounters the trough

[Aric Dunn]

Looking closely at the Euro its is nearly out to see because a 500mb plus low deveops over virginia just as IRMA approaches NC and shoves it nne.. looks like a transient feature. next run likely will be back west again.

If that low gets absolutely any stronger, it'll suck Irma right in. Such a volatile setup

that low also keeps the weakness after the trough lifts out which is why it does not make it as far west.. definitely looks transient as its not on any other model run as is small and weak but enough to keep the weakness

[Aric Dunn]

just no Aric.

Why not Alyono? So far we've seen during the short term forecasts that it's a bit slower and further WSW, anything after 5 days is a toss-up. I feel that everyone along the eastern seaboard from SE FL to Maine are at equal chances of some sort of effect.

models are trending FASTER not slower. Storm is moving at a good clip. The idea of the storm moving slow enough so that the ridge forces it into Florida are about gone now. Only chance is for this to move at 18 kts and get to Florida before it encounters the trough

but your missing the fact that if it continues the wsw motion longer ( similar the euro and other from a couple days ago getting farther south into the islands) that in essence makes it slower even if its moving the same speed.