Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

06z FV3, at least the models are generating more fantasy maps to look at than last winter lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011606/fv3p_asnow_us_36.png

12z says to 06z, "Hold my beer!"


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011612/fv3p_asnow_us_41.png

Someday one of these will verify

[Quixotic]

I warned people about +enso years and brutal cold. The cold will always be modified if you’ve got the stj going and split flow. This will also keep us from warming up too much. This past weekend is a good example. We were supposed to warm up but the cloud deck never burned off until Monday afternoon. When we get the modified air it’ll be here a while and reluctant to leave. All you need is lower dew-points. It’s still much more promising than what we’ve been seeing. If things retrograde as they did in 2015 we will be golden.

[HockeyTx82]

06z FV3, at least the models are generating more fantasy maps to look at than last winter lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011606/fv3p_asnow_us_36.png

12z says to 06z, "Hold my beer!"


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011612/fv3p_asnow_us_41.png

Someday one of these will verify

Turn off the models, no more model runs and this has to be what happens, right? Isn't that how this works?

[Brent]

The Euro still has a little snow Saturday in N TX but appears to be a dusting at most for everyone

[Lagreeneyes03]

Only 384 hours out!

Only 168 hours out!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011612/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

Ha, yeah If only...

Dammit, Bubba beat me to it by mere seconds


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011612/fv3p_asnow_eus_31.png

Man I'd be working from home for a week if that materializes. But alas...I'll truly expect "Just a Cold Rain". I think that should be my signature line going forward...lol

[Brent]

Euro also with some snow in DFW next Wednesday

[bubba hotep]

The Euro still has a little snow Saturday in N TX but appears to be a dusting at most for everyone

Same with the next system. Maybe combined we can eek out a car topper!

[wxman57]

I agree, the FV3-GFS is definitely right for NEXT week. Plan on a half foot of snow in Dallas. I guarantee it!

[Brent]

The Euro still has a little snow Saturday in N TX but appears to be a dusting at most for everyone

Same with the next system. Maybe combined we can eek out a car topper!

the Wednesday storm is the best, it snows and then changes back to rain

[HockeyTx82]

I agree, the FV3-GFS is definitely right for NEXT week. Plan on a half foot of snow in Dallas. I guarantee it!

You serious Clark?

[missygirl810]

06z FV3, at least the models are generating more fantasy maps to look at than last winter lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011606/fv3p_asnow_us_36.png

12z says to 06z, "Hold my beer!"

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011612/fv3p_asnow_us_41.png

I will be more than happy to hold a 18 pack of bottles if that's what it takes!!

[Cpv17]

FV3 appears to me to bring back a +EPO in the long range..yuck! Man I felt way better about our chances for cold a few days ago. Yesterday and today have sucked. I shouldn’t be surprised though. Oh well, at least the FV3 and Euro both have a decent lil snow event next week for you DFW folk.

[wxman57]

I agree, the FV3-GFS is definitely right for NEXT week. Plan on a half foot of snow in Dallas. I guarantee it!

You serious Clark?

Is the Pope Jewish?

[wxman57]

12Z EC temps/precip are in. Low at DFW dropped from 26 to 25 on Sunday in the latest run. Temps in the mid 30s next Wednesday during the precip.

[HockeyTx82]

I agree, the FV3-GFS is definitely right for NEXT week. Plan on a half foot of snow in Dallas. I guarantee it!

You serious Clark?

Is the Pope Jewish?

no

[HockeyTx82]

12Z EC temps/precip are in. Low at DFW dropped from 26 to 25 on Sunday in the latest run. Temps in the mid 30s next Wednesday during the precip.

http://wxman57.com/images/EC12ZDFW.JPG

Does that graph show a dusting of snow on the bottom? Total snow row.

[Cpv17]

12Z EC temps/precip are in. Low at DFW dropped from 26 to 25 on Sunday in the latest run. Temps in the mid 30s next Wednesday during the precip.

http://wxman57.com/images/EC12ZDFW.JPG

That’s a week out. Those temps could +/- by 10 degrees yet. Next week is trending colder on every model so I’d bet on it being colder right now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Waiting on Euro ensembles for more confidence lol. I think for winter weather, it's better that it doesnt show the polar vortex coming into the lower 48

[orangeblood]

Some of the Euro Ensemble members are becoming very aggressive with both Saturday and Wednesday's storm potential (8 day DFW ENS mean snowfall of over 1/2 inch now - practically nothing previously) ....stay tuned, make any definitive conclusions one way or another for the next 7-10 days is obviously a fool's errand!!

[Brent]

12Z EC temps/precip are in. Low at DFW dropped from 26 to 25 on Sunday in the latest run. Temps in the mid 30s next Wednesday during the precip.

http://wxman57.com/images/EC12ZDFW.JPG

Does that graph show a dusting of snow on the bottom? Total snow row.

dusting or so Saturday and then a little more Wednesday yes

maybe we can get a white roof