ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Aric Dunn]

East of Guadaloupe

looks like a wind shift.. but that is much smaller than the vort west
.. hmm.. oh well not that important yet..

[Air Force Met]

Re outflow boundaries:

My amateur impression is that outflow boundaries far from the central convection (like yesterday, at least what I saw) are not a sign of weakening and actually seem to be associated with strengthening. They just indicate secondary storms fading which is no big deal. Outflow boundaries coming from central convection (which I've seen today) *are* an indication of a weakening storm.

Basically true. When your outflow boundaries are coming from the center and moving away...that indicates two things are going on. 1) You have some dry air in the mid levels. 2) You have surface divergence.

If you have arc clouds radiating out on a squall line...its not that bad for a storm. If you have them moving out from the center...that's sfc divergence and that is NOT a good thing. Sfc divergence raises sfc pressures...it warms and dries the lower layers...which increases stability.

[Stormcenter]

Now that's a drastic change in IMO.
I don't have a problem buying it based on it's
current condition and movement.

12z cmc.. straight west..

then dissipates.. it

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[otowntiger]

12z cmc.. straight west..

then dissipates.. it

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Well, that could very well happen.

[Frank2]

Too true - it all depends, though this system is so weak, that any weakening of convection is only bound to make it weaker...

P.S. We're getting pounded by TRW+ at this time, so we probably have more intense weather than anything associated with Erika (we've had 8-10 inches of rain in this local area since Monday)...

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 021808
AF309 0306A ERIKA HDOB 12 20090902
175830 1617N 06029W 9590 00429 0074 +229 +189 216014 014 027 000 00
175900 1616N 06028W 9597 00423 0071 +230 +189 213013 014 026 001 00
175930 1615N 06027W 9593 00426 0070 +231 +188 214015 016 025 001 00
180000 1614N 06026W 9593 00424 0071 +232 +188 216015 016 025 002 00
180030 1613N 06025W 9589 00428 0075 +230 +188 221015 017 027 000 00
180100 1612N 06023W 9593 00424 0078 +231 +188 215014 014 027 000 00
180130 1611N 06022W 9595 00423 0069 +231 +188 221015 016 027 000 00
180200 1610N 06021W 9595 00422 0074 +235 +188 223015 015 026 000 00
180230 1609N 06020W 9593 00424 0068 +235 +188 224015 015 027 000 00
180300 1607N 06019W 9593 00425 0069 +235 +188 226016 017 026 000 00
180330 1606N 06018W 9594 00424 0069 +237 +188 225016 017 025 000 00
180400 1605N 06017W 9593 00426 0069 +236 +189 223015 016 025 000 00
180430 1604N 06015W 9594 00425 0070 +236 +189 215014 014 027 000 00
180500 1603N 06014W 9593 00427 0072 +232 +189 209013 013 028 000 00
180530 1602N 06013W 9593 00427 0073 +229 +190 205013 015 029 000 00
180600 1601N 06012W 9593 00428 0073 +232 +189 207014 015 031 000 00
180630 1600N 06011W 9593 00429 0074 +230 +189 212017 017 030 001 00
180700 1559N 06010W 9592 00430 0074 +232 +188 213017 018 031 001 00
180730 1558N 06009W 9596 00426 0074 +232 +188 209018 018 031 000 00
180800 1557N 06008W 9596 00427 0075 +232 +187 203018 019 031 001 30
$$
;

[AdamFirst]

What is the possibility of it strengthening that quickly off the southeast Florida coast?

Two words: Hurricane Charley

I'm not saying it's going to happen but it's definitely possible...

[Dave]

can someone pick it up have a dentist appt in 40 mins.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

can someone pick it up have a dentist appt in 40 mins.

No problem. Good luck!!!

[Derek Ortt]

Hurricane Charley did not intensify off the SE coast of Florida. It did so off of the SW coast due to a very favorable position in relation with the trough

[sfwx]

Weather OBS link:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... mm=0&hur=0

[otowntiger]

Looks like an outflow boundary too - all of the above makes for a weakening system:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

Thats' what we heard yesterday at about this same time.

Please...let's not revise history. Yesterday at this time everyone here was pretty sure it was going to get upgraded. It had good low level inflow...the center was getting closer to the convection and it was on the rise. Completely different situation than yesterday.

Yesterday you didn't have shearing in the mid-levels coming in from the west and the center wasn't so exposed. Yesterday at this time it didn't look like a weakening system...it looked like a system that was getting its act together. Today...it looks like a system that is falling apart. That doesn't mean it will...or that it won't change that trend in the next hour...but as of right now...Frank is right...its weakening.

Excuse me? I'm not revising any history, except, maybe it was just before lunch (in the morining) instead of after when Ortt said it had just spat out 4 outflow boundaries and while she wasn't singing yet the fat lady was getting ready. And by the way I'm not disagreeing that its weakening, just that yesterday morning there were folks ready to write this thing off. You, me, the NHC really don't know what is going to happen with this system. I certainly am not saying it will become anything I'm just saying that we don't know, this thing is fickle. Granted it's weak and the prospects aren't good.

[knotimpaired]

Intermediate advisory has center at 16.2N/61.1W. That's on the eastern side of Guadeloupe and on the eastern side of that vortex just southwest of Guadeloupe. I don't see any rotation near that intermediate point. Perhaps the NHC is just inching the position westward toward the vortex for the next advisory? In that case, their track should be over or south of PR at 4pm CDT. I'd go south of PR now and into the southern DR.

wxman, south of PR at 4pm CDT...what day?

[Brent]

URNT12 KNHC 021813
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062009
A. 02/17:49:10Z
B. 16 deg 38 min N
060 deg 50 min W
C. 925 mb 742 m
D. 35 kt
E. 314 deg 93 nm
F. 067 deg 28 kt
G. 314 deg 63 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 23 C / 458 m
J. 23 C / 458 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 9
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF309 0306A ERIKA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 28 KT NW QUAD 17:27:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
SFC CNTR 360 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 021754
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
200 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...ERIKA NEAR GUADELOUPE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST.
MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC....THE CENTER OF THE POORLY ORGANIZED
TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ERIKA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE STORM MAY BE
WEAKENING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE THE INTENSITY OF ERIKA. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY WITH SOME SLIGHT
RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.2N 61.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[AdamFirst]

I was talking in terms of the proximity to land, that's what I thought he was asking about.

[JPmia]

HWRF is in love with Erika

Looking at the "storm" right now and then looking at that model run...I think it is way off the mark.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Center found