ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[deltadog03]

No disrespect, but how can you say this is weakening based on satellite pics??

Here is a shot at 440pm




Here is a very recent shot at 640pm

[jinftl]

I know it is not the case, but given the way Ida looks and the cloud cover moving over the fl peninsula, if i didn't know the forecast, i would think this is getting ready to be pulled in a nne or northeast direction.....

Either the center is going to miss the next forecast point to the east or the convection has been displaced to the east side of the circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Thunder44]

7pm Advisory has 105mph winds, pressure 979mb.

[Dean4Storms]

No disrespect, but how can you say this is weakening based on satellite pics??

Here is a shot at 440pm




Here is a very recent shot at 640pm

I was wondering the same thing, looks deeper and expanding!

[jinftl]

expanding to the east....the west side has not expanded much further west....the east side is expanding

No disrespect, but how can you say this is weakening based on satellite pics??

Here is a shot at 440pm




Here is a very recent shot at 640pm

I was wondering the same thing, looks deeper and expanding!

[cycloneye]

Hurricane IDA Public Advisory
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US Watch/Warning Storm Surge
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 082353
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
600 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

...IDA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
225 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT
445 MILES...720 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
IDA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...
165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND IDA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AIRCRAFT DATA IS
979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

...SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...23.1N 86.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
900 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[cycloneye]

Ida Slightly Stronger

...SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...23.1N 86.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB

[Ivanhater]

Lol..it has CLEARLY expanded west...not east

[ozonepete]

The last few images definitely show strengthening.

[KWT]

Still doesn't look great for a 105mph category-2 but it has to be noted that the convection does look pretty decent it has to be said, becoming better looking again, seems like its been up and down for quite a while now.

[PTPatrick]

So its seems like the jog NW might be giving some hope for areas west of Pascagoula (at least in terms of surge). We will just have to see. It has been fighting some demons but seems like it is still trying to get its act together, and looking at the high position it could nudge back more NW again. Also, remember some of the models had this peaking tomorrow morning...so I would not be suprised to still see it peak at cat 3 some times tomorrow morning.

[deltadog03]

BTW, it appears that IDA is starting to move quicker as well.

[MGC]

The center is right in the middle of the deep convection. Ida does not look like it is weakening to me.....MGC

[Sabanic]

BTW, it appears that IDA is starting to move quicker as well.

Quicker is not a good thing

[CrazyC83]

SFMR does not come close to supporting 90 kt though.

[Aric Dunn]

THe 980 pressure seems suspect.. winds were at 30 kts at the time !!

I see on Google that winds were only 16kts at that time. So maybe just 979mb.

I was looking at the actual data... not sure where google gets it from .

[Blown Away]

Where is the center?

[deltadog03]

So, I guess recon is done for now huh? It appears that the one plane is going back to tampa?

[Aric Dunn]

7pm Advisory has 105mph winds, pressure 979mb.

yep figured they would up it to 105..

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Lol..it has CLEARLY expanded west...not east

Maybe the people saying east are related to the replay officials from yesterdays LSU's blown call.