Texas Winter 2010-2011

[txagwxman]

Btw I find this a little odd. That tells you FW is very much warm bias lol. Why would you favor the GFS temps (outlier) when all of the ensembles is on the other side of the bandwagon?

THE LONG RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS SHOWING CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW WITH
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING NEAR BAJA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE BOTH INDICATING
MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE MUCH COLDER
BUT DRIER SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS IS WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS AND KEEP
SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE ON TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT WARM BIAS TOWARDS THE
GFS.

As mentioned before the 6z GFS ensembles weren't that cold for DFW.

[iorange55]

I just don't see the GFS being right. I don't get it. 1044 coming down and it ends up the magic line is just in west texas and the panhandle. Seems really fishy.

[wxman22]

Yep after looking at the GFS at more detail , it shows freezing rain/sleet across Texas as impulses move into the cold air, looks like a classic overrunning setup with shallow air which usually= icy conditions, the only problem I see is that the GFS is struggling on what to do with the cold airmass, it basically barely moves the air from hours 150-174, a common problem the GFS has with shallow air masses.

[Ntxw]

As mentioned before the 6z GFS ensembles weren't that cold for DFW.

Sure they may not be ridiculously cold per 6z, but that is one set of runs (still not warm bias). But the overall trends the past few days from the Ops and Ensembles have been to lean to the slightly colder not slighty warmer. For FW to side slightly warmer is surprising to me but I suppose they know what they are doing. That would make more sense to me. Not saying they need roll into the bandwagon of frigidness, just my opinion

[iorange55]

As mentioned before the 6z GFS ensembles weren't that cold for DFW.

Sure they may not be ridiculously cold per 6z, but that is one set of runs. But the overall trends the past few days from the Ops and Ensembles have been to lean to the slightly colder not slighty warmer. That would make more sense to me. Not saying they need roll into the bandwagon of frigidness, just my opinion

Just the other day I thought they were rolling with the Euro. I guess the big chill scared them.

[srainhoutx]

Yep after looking at the GFS at more detail , it shows freezing rain/sleet across Texas as impulses move into the cold air, looks like a classic overrunning setup with shallow air which usually= icy conditions, the only problem I see is that the GFS is struggling on what to do with the cold airmass, it basically barely moves the air from hours 150-174, a common problem the GFS has with shallow air masses.

Now will the GFS give over to the Euro solution regarding temps and/or will the Euro give over to the GFS regarding the moisture or somewhere in between? We will see.

[txagwxman]

As mentioned before the 6z GFS ensembles weren't that cold for DFW.

Sure they may not be ridiculously cold per 6z, but that is one set of runs (still not warm bias). But the overall trends the past few days from the Ops and Ensembles have been to lean to the slightly colder not slighty warmer. For FW to side slightly warmer is surprising to me but I suppose they know what they are doing. That would make more sense to me. Not saying they need roll into the bandwagon of frigidness, just my opinion

Actually that is incorrect, the GFS ensembles have been backing off day after day if I do recall.
It is the ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles that have been the most consistent.

[Ntxw]

Actually that is incorrect, the GFS ensembles have been backing off day after day if I do recall.
It is the ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles that have been the most consistent.

Well I hope it works out for them . What are your opinions on the possible cold snap/wintry precip?

[txagwxman]

Actually that is incorrect, the GFS ensembles have been backing off day after day if I do recall.
It is the ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles that have been the most consistent.

Well I hope it works out for them . What are your opinions on the possible cold snap/wintry precip?

It will come down and we will get some ice in DFW.

[wxman57]

I don't buy the GFS upper air solution with all that energy hanging back to the west. It made that mistake last time, and the 500mb flow just doesn't look right on the 12Z run. I think the trof will be more progressive than the GFS is indicating, as was the case with the last such event - more toward the 00Z euro and Canadian. GFS does have IAH (Houston) down to 26 degrees on Wednesday, but I think the air that comes down may be a good bit colder.

[gboudx]

Thoughts on this from pro-met Steve LaNore.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-dall ... ts_article

[orangeblood]

NWS HPC is going with the Euro ensembles for now.

I'm also with Portastorm on this one, pay close attention to the Ukmet and also the JMA model. I think they might have the best solution so far with a strong low pressure system forming in west central Texas late in the day on Monday. Then intensifying and moving along the Arctic boundary into the Ohio Valley. The frontal boundary appears to take dead aim at the southern plains and not much of a push into the southeastern US at first. So I believe that the Texas to Ohio Valley storm path seems like the most logical scenario. This would place the northern 1/2 of Texas into southern Oklahoma as the best potential area for winter precip ATM.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[orangeblood]

All of you Texas winter weather lovers are going to love today's 12Z Canadian run

[downsouthman1]

NWS HPC is going with the Euro ensembles for now.

I'm also with Portastorm on this one, pay close attention to the Ukmet and also the JMA model. I think they might have the best solution so far with a strong low pressure system forming in west central Texas late in the day on Monday. Then intensifying and moving along the Arctic boundary into the Ohio Valley. The frontal boundary appears to take dead aim at the southern plains and not much of a push into the southeastern US at first. So I believe that the Texas to Ohio Valley storm path seems like the most logical scenario. This would place the northern 1/2 of Texas into southern Oklahoma as the best potential area for winter precip ATM.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Not really a path that bodes well for those of us in Central, South, & Southeast Texas. Hopefully it travels a little further south than that.

[Portastorm]

Storm 2K News reporting ... today's Portastorm Weather Center briefing is brought to you by the great nation of Canada, the birthplace of rock legends Rush, the creator of basketball James Naismith, and the highly accurate Canadian weather model otherwise known as the CMC or GGEM.

"Eeenie-meenie-minee-moe, the GFS and Euro have got to go," said the PWC director in re-affirming his belief that much of Texas is in for a significant winter storm in and around February 1st. "We believe the Canadian model has this pattern nailed down to a tee. Texans from Amarillo to San Angelo to San Antonio up to Tyler should review their winter storm precautions right now. Right now we're not sure about southeast Texas' chances for wintry fun. Wxman57 has built a warm boundary around the city which may preclude winter weather but ensure optimal cycling conditions."

The director concluded the briefing with the PWC slogan: "You want snow, you got SNOW!"

[Tireman4]

Wxman57 has built a warm boundary around the city which may preclude winter weather but ensure optimal cycling conditions."

Ahh man. Not again. Dang it.

[Rgv20]

^No love for deep south texas director...........we are used to it we always get the COLD shoulder ahh i mean rain

[natlib]

Storm 2K News reporting ... today's Portastorm Weather Center briefing is brought to you by the great nation of Canada, the birthplace of rock legends Rush, the creator of basketball James Naismith, and the highly accurate Canadian weather model otherwise known as the CMC or GGEM.

"Eeenie-meenie-minee-moe, the GFS and Euro have got to go," said the PWC director in re-affirming his belief that much of Texas is in for a significant winter storm in and around February 1st. "We believe the Canadian model has this pattern nailed down to a tee. Texans from Amarillo to San Angelo to San Antonio up to Tyler should review their winter storm precautions right now. Right now we're not sure about southeast Texas' chances for wintry fun. Wxman57 has built a warm boundary around the city which may preclude winter weather but ensure optimal cycling conditions."

The director concluded the briefing with the PWC slogan: "You want snow, you got SNOW!"

WOW!!! San Angelo was mentioned in the Portastorm Weather Center briefing!!!!! I hope its true! I am going home to look for my ice scraper!!!!

[Tireman4]

Eeenie-meenie-minee-moe, the GFS and Euro have got to go," said the PWC director in re-affirming his belief that much of Texas is in for a significant winter storm in and around February 1st. "We believe the Canadian model has this pattern nailed down to a tee. Texans from Amarillo to San Angelo to San Antonio up to Tyler should review their winter storm precautions right now.

So, cold rain for Dallas...what about Waco...? LOL

[wxman22]

How pretty...