Texas Winter 2013-2014

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ndale
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#3281 Postby ndale » Mon Jan 06, 2014 10:17 am

Portastorm wrote:We bottomed out at 20 degrees at the PWC. That cold air advection sure is strong! :cold:

As for the ERCOT stuff, we did have a similar emergency in February 2011, vbhoutex. In fact we had rolling blackouts the day it hit 17 degrees at the PWC and we didn't have power for a while at PWC HQ.


I remember well, I work at home and kept losing power, finally had to go into our office to work where we have a generator.
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#3282 Postby texas1836 » Mon Jan 06, 2014 10:22 am

Reached a low of 11 this morning in McKinney. According to my new and improved weather instruments. Thanks to my beautiful wife and her exceptional Christmas gift.
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Re:

#3283 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 06, 2014 10:25 am

texas1836 wrote:Reached a low of 11 this morning in McKinney. According to my new and improved weather instruments. Thanks to my beautiful wife and her exceptional Christmas gift.


She must be reading your posts! :wink: :cheesy:

All kidding aside ... that is dang cold. And we pretty much have single digit dew points across 3/4 of the state this morning.
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#3284 Postby Tig70 » Mon Jan 06, 2014 10:28 am

Got down to 7 degrees just after sunrise here in Lubbock. Clear sky has warmed us up to 11 already. :cold:
I believe this is the coldest it's been so far this winter.
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Re:

#3285 Postby Portastorm » Mon Jan 06, 2014 10:33 am

Tig70 wrote:Got down to 7 degrees just after sunrise here in Lubbock. Clear sky has warmed us up to 11 already. :cold:
I believe this is the coldest it's been so far this winter.


A balmy 11 degrees at this hour, eh?! Our staffer from the West Texas field office of the PWC is heading back this morning to the university he and his friends have dubbed the "Harvard of the High Plains." I cautioned him that he may be greeted by some extreme cold. Keep warm out there, Tig70.
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#3286 Postby Tejas89 » Mon Jan 06, 2014 10:33 am

You can definitely tell a difference between this bone dry air and superbowl week, despite similar temps. Much more comfortable aside from the static!

So, it looks like the expected wet pattern will materialize later this week with a series of short waves moving through, just minus any cold air. Anything in the models suggesting a return to cold after next week?
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#3287 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jan 06, 2014 10:34 am

Bottomed out at 12 degrees this morning in Denison. Sounds like great bike riding weather! :D
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#3288 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Jan 06, 2014 10:38 am

Currently 39F under cloudy skies in my backyard..

33 of the 50 0zECMWF Ensemble Members and also the 0zECMWF Operational along with the ECMWF Ensemble Control Run are showing very very light snow for my area tonight/early Tuesday Morning.
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#3289 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Mon Jan 06, 2014 10:38 am

So the precip and freezing temperatures keep missing each other. Will we have any other winter weather to talk about this month in North Texas?
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#3290 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Jan 06, 2014 10:52 am

I agree. Winter is not over. Not even close.
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Re:

#3291 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:03 am

Rgv20 wrote:Currently 39F under cloudy skies in my backyard..

33 of the 50 0zECMWF Ensemble Members and also the 0zECMWF Operational along with the ECMWF Ensemble Control Run are showing very very light snow for my area tonight/early Tuesday Morning.



The satelite images are showing some 'convection' or nice returns in Mexico heading your way. I think something will fall out of the sky
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#3292 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:15 am

ronyan wrote:6z GFS shows the high moving to the east of Houston around 5am tomorrow morning give or take an hour. That should be plenty of time for radiational cooling to kick in and allow temps to drop quickly after dark. I think wxman will see about 23 in the morning. :D

Expecting close to the same at my station in Lake Jackson. It was 29.5F this morning here.


I'm seeing the high moving east of Houston by midnight tonight on the 6z GFS. If that's the case, then temps may start falling more slowly near midnight then either stop falling or possibly begin rising before sunrise. It's possible that tonight's temps are not as cold as this morning's.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#3293 Postby ronyan » Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:20 am

wxman57 wrote:
ronyan wrote:6z GFS shows the high moving to the east of Houston around 5am tomorrow morning give or take an hour. That should be plenty of time for radiational cooling to kick in and allow temps to drop quickly after dark. I think wxman will see about 23 in the morning. :D

Expecting close to the same at my station in Lake Jackson. It was 29.5F this morning here.


I'm seeing the high moving east of Houston by midnight tonight on the 6z GFS. If that's the case, then temps may start falling more slowly near midnight then either stop falling or possibly begin rising before sunrise. It's possible that tonight's temps are not as cold as this morning's.


The 24hr forecast has the center of it due N of Houston 6z tomorrow. (about 4am our time I think). That's what I was using, please inform if that is incorrect.

Still looks like a pretty broad hp, the main isobar extends well to the west of the center on that GFS run. Would there be much of a wind shift if the pressure stays nearly the same?
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#3294 Postby dhweather » Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:26 am

It was a balmy 12 degrees this morning in Heath. Presently it is 19, the barometric pressure is up to 30.76 , which is as high as I can remember being in.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#3295 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:38 am

ronyan wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
ronyan wrote:6z GFS shows the high moving to the east of Houston around 5am tomorrow morning give or take an hour. That should be plenty of time for radiational cooling to kick in and allow temps to drop quickly after dark. I think wxman will see about 23 in the morning. :D

Expecting close to the same at my station in Lake Jackson. It was 29.5F this morning here.


I'm seeing the high moving east of Houston by midnight tonight on the 6z GFS. If that's the case, then temps may start falling more slowly near midnight then either stop falling or possibly begin rising before sunrise. It's possible that tonight's temps are not as cold as this morning's.


The 24hr forecast has the center of it due N of Houston 6z tomorrow. (about 4am our time I think). That's what I was using, please inform if that is incorrect.

Still looks like a pretty broad hp, the main isobar extends well to the west of the center on that GFS run. Would there be much of a wind shift if the pressure stays nearly the same?


The position I'm seeing is on the TX/LA border NE of Houston by 06Z (12am) with SE winds across Houston in the lower levels. It's the low-level warm advection (any wind out of the SE) which is key for shutting down radiational cooling.
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#3296 Postby Comanche » Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:43 am

Looking at this loop- http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .week.html

Anyone have input on the 'hole' of cooldown in that warm GOA pool in the last frame or two? Is that a temporary feature, or is it the start of a breakdown of those anomalously warm waters?
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Re: Re:

#3297 Postby TexasStorm » Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:49 am

Portastorm wrote:
texas1836 wrote:Reached a low of 11 this morning in McKinney. According to my new and improved weather instruments. Thanks to my beautiful wife and her exceptional Christmas gift.


She must be reading your posts! :wink: :cheesy:

All kidding aside ... that is dang cold. And we pretty much have single digit dew points across 3/4 of the state this morning.


And all my wife could say this morning is, "this dry air sure causing static electricity in my hair".
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#3298 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Jan 06, 2014 12:02 pm

20.9 degrees at the Weatherdude Center when I left at 7am this morning. I'm sure we'll get colder tonight. Put a faucet cover, AND wrapped a towel AROUND the faucet cover on the north facing wall of the house. In 2011, there was just the faucet cover on it, and the faucet still froze. Everything flowing this morning. We'll see what happens tonight. I may just put a slow drip on it. Wrapped a towel on the southeast facing faucet cover. Also opened up my sink cupboards last night, which are adjacent to the outside wall of the house. Everything fine. I may drip those too! :cold: I put thinsulating blankets over a couple of my large Sagos out in front. They survived down to 17 degrees back in 2011. Fronds turned beige/brown, but new growth came back in May of that year. It's not covering the bottom of them, so they're partially protected from the "Arctic." Was hoping to save the fronds for company for a birthday party in a couple weeks. We'll see. Anyway.

I may just drip everything and pay the extra water bill, which would be less than fixing busted pipes. :wink:

If it is this cold, it needs to SNOW in my humble opinion. :froze:
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#3299 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jan 06, 2014 12:10 pm

Yeah dripped all faucets and ran the pool pump all night. We busted a pipe when i was younger in 1990 i believe. Not fun at all.
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#3300 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Jan 06, 2014 12:16 pm

This may be completely out there, and i may be wrong, but with a SE flow, is it possible we get some pretty bad fog rolling in?
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