Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

A little off topic from Texas. Check out the forecast temps up north in International Falls. Who says there isn't cold air in the source regions? And this isn't even in Canada!

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NWS Forecast for: International Falls MN
Issued by: National Weather Service Duluth, MN
Last Update: 10:11 pm CST Dec 24, 2017


Hazardous Weather Outlook
Wind Chill Warning

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -26. Wind chill values between -30 and -35. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Christmas Day: Partly sunny and cold, with a steady temperature around -19. Wind chill values between -35 and -40. West wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -26. Wind chill values between -35 and -45. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -10. Wind chill values between -35 and -45. West wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -25. West wind around 5 mph.

[Ntxw]

GEFS for New Year's Day

[South Texas Storms]

That sure is impressive for an ensemble mean for just over a week out. Confidence is increasing that a big cold shot may be arriving in TX to start 2018.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:
That sure is impressive for an ensemble mean for just over a week out. Confidence is increasing that a big cold shot may be arriving in TX to start 2018.

It may be the climax of the cold dome that enveloped the continent starting late last week. Last Friday's front was first surge, with reinforcing shots throughout the coming week. As many posts have noted, STJ will be a problem and difficult to forecast.

Euro is running

Edit: The SOI is still running negative, so no surprise of the active STJ. Very odd for a Nina to go this long with -SOI for any period. In tandem with this, DFW is having a wetter than normal December against Nina climo.

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11 Dec 2017   1011.42   1009.65   -10.12   10.31   9.11
12 Dec 2017   1010.50   1008.95   -11.26   9.93   8.85
13 Dec 2017   1010.91   1008.20   -5.24   9.53   8.67
14 Dec 2017   1009.89   1007.85   -8.72   8.83   8.54
15 Dec 2017   1008.75   1007.45   -12.56   8.02   8.44
16 Dec 2017   1007.94   1007.90   -19.10   6.86   8.27
17 Dec 2017   1007.96   1008.10   -20.03   5.77   8.07
18 Dec 2017   1009.05   1007.15   -9.45   5.00   8.04
19 Dec 2017   1009.83   1007.30   -6.18   4.37   8.05
20 Dec 2017   1010.91   1007.55   -1.87   3.97   8.05
21 Dec 2017   1010.55   1007.30   -2.44   3.59   7.97
22 Dec 2017   1008.41   1006.55   -9.65   2.81   7.80
23 Dec 2017   1006.79   1005.50   -12.61   1.90   7.57
24 Dec 2017   1006.92   1005.10   -9.86   1.25   7.30

[Lagreeneyes03]

:uarrow:
That sure is impressive for an ensemble mean for just over a week out. Confidence is increasing that a big cold shot may be arriving in TX to start 2018.

How long will it last though? Larry Cosgrove wrote today that the January thaw signature is very strong after the first week in Jan. Hopefully we can get some precip with that cold, or else I fear it may be awhile, or not at all this winter.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:
That sure is impressive for an ensemble mean for just over a week out. Confidence is increasing that a big cold shot may be arriving in TX to start 2018.

How long will it last though? Larry Cosgrove wrote today that the January thaw signature is very strong after the first week in Jan. Hopefully we can get some precip with that cold, or else I fear it may be awhile, or not at all this winter.

Jan thaw occurs second week. CFSv2 and NAEFS favor the rebuild of the Aleutian ridge week 3 and 4. It's Nina climo to do so. We've been doing this since late October, so after the thaw, the pattern just repeats with a reload of the -EPO. Raised heights over Alaska may return the second half of January into early February the same way late Oct, late Nov and now late Dec just did.

[Cpv17]

Euro is coming in warmer.

[Brent]

DFW above freezing on the Euro through New Years Eve front isn't dramatic on the Euro(only goes from around 50 to 35 in DFW)

Trough is further NE on the Euro than the GFS

[Cpv17]

DFW above freezing on the Euro through New Years Eve front isn't dramatic on the Euro(only goes from around 50 to 35 in DFW)

Trough is further NE on the Euro than the GFS

It wouldn’t surprise me if that verified. Most of the cold has gone east of us all year.

[Brent]

New Years Day by far the coldest air is on the east coast

DFW hangs in the low/mid 30s all day even still, not much of a temperature variation

[Ntxw]

Euro is still cold, just not as cold. HP isn't 1057mb in Montana like 12z rather low 1051-1053mb in Alberta to really drive the coldest due S

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Just noticed that a low bombing out in the Pacific is helping the case here.

[northjaxpro]

6Z GFS just out showing massive 1058 mb Arctic High dropping down into North Dakota as the clock strikes midnight on New Year's Eve bringing in 2018!!

This cold spell coming in next week is looking serious folks!!

[Cpv17]

The GFS has this within 6 days now folks! It’s actually not pushing it back for once.

[Texas Snowman]

A chilly morning here in North Texas, I'm grateful for that. As you celebrate this wonderful holiday with family and friends, I pray you have a blessed Christmas Day. Merry Christmas everyone!

[South Texas Storms]

Merry Christmas everyone! It sure does feel like Christmas this year, with below freezing temperatures across much of the northern half of TX.

[missygirl810]

Yes it is chilly!!! Just finished putting stuff together for the grandson, going to get a little sleep before he gets here. Have a Very Merry Christmas all!!!!

[TexasF6]

MERRY CHRISTMAS to All of my Storm2K Family!!!! May there be more snow and best wishes for a blessed Christmas Season for all of you!!!

[gboudx]

Merry Christmas from Lafitte, La. Supposed to be in mid 50s today. Last year it was in the 80s. Nice Christmas Day.

[Ntxw]

To all of you and your families on this cold Christmas Morning! Another great year for us and many more to come