ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BucMan2]

It seems to me it's so hard to try to help people on where to evacuate when we don't know yet which coast Irma may
Go to. Being from Tampa in 2004 everyone thought Charley was going to come to us and went to Orlando
. we all know what happened that it went to Punta Gorda and then to Orlando. Very tricky situation

[CronkPSU]

In terms of damage, if a cat 5 were to make landfall and travel directly up the spine, how much damage would be done (how much intensity would be lost) when it got to an area like Orlando or Tampa. Would we still be looking at Cat 3 winds that could potentially damage buildings etc?

worse than Charley which was like cat 1 by the time it hit Orlando/Winter Park, if GFS verified, it would be near Cat 3 winds still

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050126
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 28 20170905
011700 1641N 05522W 6975 02644 9429 +163 +097 295006 008 025 000 03
011730 1640N 05522W 6958 02668 9431 +161 +118 257012 017 025 001 03
011800 1638N 05520W 6970 02662 9443 +160 +114 240024 026 027 002 00
011830 1637N 05519W 6964 02678 9448 +164 +106 236032 038 036 002 00
011900 1636N 05518W 6967 02690 9470 +155 +125 234048 053 049 004 00
011930 1634N 05516W 6971 02708 9502 +149 +117 232061 065 071 004 03
012000 1633N 05515W 6967 02736 9547 +135 +122 232082 093 108 013 03
012030 1632N 05514W 6978 02766 9638 +126 +126 228113 118 111 033 03
012100 1631N 05512W 6962 02826 9685 +117 +117 227114 118 109 042 00
012130 1630N 05511W 6962 02859 9731 +114 +114 226107 112 101 021 00
012200 1629N 05510W 6974 02881 9759 +106 //// 222103 106 094 014 01
012230 1627N 05509W 6964 02919 9775 +107 +107 224098 100 090 007 00
012300 1626N 05508W 6964 02937 9801 +111 +111 229095 097 086 012 00
012330 1625N 05506W 6973 02948 9845 +109 +109 228098 100 083 029 03
012400 1624N 05505W 6963 02974 9869 +107 +107 220087 096 078 034 03
012430 1623N 05504W 6968 02985 9896 +098 +098 217089 090 073 016 00
012500 1622N 05503W 6970 02995 9906 +096 +096 217085 087 073 015 00
012530 1621N 05502W 6967 03012 9909 +087 +087 217084 085 069 009 00
012600 1620N 05501W 6968 03022 9914 +086 +085 219081 083 066 009 00
012630 1619N 05459W 6969 03033 9928 +085 +082 219080 081 065 008 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

Already looks like a T6.5. Waiting for the pressure to start falling and the winds to increase.

[GCANE]

AF305

117 Knot SFMR
941.8 mb extrap

[robbielyn]

Puerto Rico residents are prepering for the worse case scenario but hoping the best comes.I am prepared in my house but maybe I will not be in Storm2k for a while due to power grids not in good conditions. Sending prayers to our friends in the islands that will be affected by Irma.

good luck my friend be safe

sure glad I'm not a cashier!

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 050129
NOAA2 0511A IRMA HDOB 32 20170905
011930 1534N 05409W 7499 02553 0065 +130 +118 202034 035 028 002 00
012000 1535N 05410W 7496 02559 0067 +131 +110 199032 032 030 001 00
012030 1536N 05412W 7496 02558 0061 +137 +094 199032 033 029 002 00
012100 1537N 05414W 7495 02555 0059 +136 +092 198033 034 030 002 00
012130 1539N 05416W 7493 02557 0059 +135 +099 199035 036 029 002 00
012200 1540N 05418W 7494 02554 0051 +140 +091 198038 039 031 001 03
012230 1540N 05420W 7494 02551 0049 +140 +096 202038 038 /// /// 03
012300 1539N 05421W 7499 02542 0043 +144 +092 203036 036 /// /// 03
012330 1537N 05421W 7499 02545 0044 +144 +090 206035 036 /// /// 03
012400 1535N 05420W 7498 02550 0053 +139 +096 208033 034 030 002 00
012430 1534N 05419W 7498 02551 0057 +137 +094 208033 034 031 002 00
012500 1533N 05417W 7497 02552 0059 +136 +097 207031 032 031 001 03
012530 1534N 05415W 7498 02551 0060 +134 +099 204032 032 /// /// 03
012600 1537N 05414W 7498 02550 0058 +135 +097 201032 033 /// /// 03
012630 1538N 05416W 7498 02552 0059 +136 +097 201034 034 029 003 00
012700 1539N 05418W 7498 02550 0054 +138 +097 198036 037 027 002 03
012730 1539N 05420W 7498 02547 0048 +142 +094 199037 038 031 001 03
012800 1540N 05422W 7514 02527 0045 +144 +091 203039 039 030 002 00
012830 1541N 05424W 7520 02517 0044 +143 +093 203039 040 031 003 00
012900 1542N 05425W 7523 02515 0047 +140 +092 204042 043 028 001 00

[Michele B]

I'm getting really stressed about figuring out where to go. Will the roads be too crazy to drive on Thursday?

Probably. I heard there are already some towns where people are waiting in line for gas - inland. I'm thinking between the shutdowns of refineries in TX, and huge demand now, there are going to be shortages. Just over the week-end a few gas stations in our town ran out of gas and didn't know when shipments were coming.

[Taylormae]

Just becoming incredible.

Is there a direct link for that image? I find it oddly beautiful.
Thank you for posting!

[Prof]

Our house was built in 2003 and we have hurricane shutters. It's two stories.

Do you know what evacuation zone it is in? How far above sea level it is? Could make a big difference on if evacuation would be necessary IF the storm went up the coast of FL.

I am trying to figure it out but the website is not loading. From what I can tell I am in zone A/B or B. Elevation is 30-35ft.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye isn't warm enough for T6.5 yet.

[gatorcane]

CAT 5 later tonight not out of the question:

[hurricanefloyd5]

I know the western atlantic pressure field will be slightly different when the GFS takes this to the sub 900's.. but can you imagine the wind speed ? its 945 and 140 mph.. if it were to drop another 40 to 60 ++ mb ?

Guessing 180 to 190 winds?

I'm saying 200mph?

[Hurricane Andrew]

I am mentally preparing myself for this...no matter where it hits, I will be involved with response.

[ExBailbonds]

Hello S2k friends

Been tru a few storms including Andrew but this one is quite different and a bit more scary to me. If it takes a track up the spine it will make getting supplies in the southern end of the state where i am really difficult which is my biggest concern. With Andrew we could just drive north a couple of hours and restock fuel, food and essentials.

[Michele B]

Ok... seen enough. I'm outta here.Going on an evacu-cation Any tips on securing house for the duration?

Button the place up. Board up, shutters -whatever - if you have them. Unplug appliances, like TV, etc. I'd only leave the fridge running (cause you're hoping it'll STAY on!). Take whatever food you can with you so as not to lose much to loss of power.

Pick up your yard, don't leave anything around that'll blow away into your neighbors' yards. They will not be amused!

CLEAN UP, especially do all your laundry. You don't know how long you'll be gone, and you DON"T want to come home to a pile of dirty laundry when you'll probably be bringing dirty laundry home with you.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I personally think this will peak in the Bahamas around 190 mph. Just a guess, and I am no MET.

[tropicwatch]

Just becoming incredible.

Is there a direct link for that image? I find it oddly beautiful.
Thank you for posting!

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=16735.3193359375&y=7392&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=21&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Michele B]

Hello S2k friends

Been tru a few storms including Andrew but this one is quite different and a bit more scary to me. If it takes a track up the spine it will make getting supplies in the southern end of the state where i am really difficult which is my biggest concern. With Andrew we could just drive north a couple of hours and restock fuel, food and essentials.

You make a good point.

So, the moral of the story is: plan for what you need to be self-sustaining for quite awhile. Is that what you're thinking?

[northjaxpro]

Irma really is putting on quite a display tonight! What an impressive looking tropical cyclone!! She is about as classical a storm can appear on satellite!!

Could indeed attain Cat 5 status later tonight or early tomorrow..