Texas Winter 2022-2023

[wxman57]

winter cancel

We almost always have a significant warm period following major cold outbreaks. Unfortunately, below-normal temps will likely return either late this month or in January. For now, I'll take 70F-80F and sunny over cloudy with lows in the teens and a high near freezing any day.

[Cpv17]

winter cancel

We almost always have a significant warm period following major cold outbreaks. Unfortunately, below-normal temps will likely return either late this month or in January. For now, I'll take 70F-80F and sunny over cloudy with lows in the teens and a high near freezing any day.

Our climate is like a seesaw that always seems to have a way of balancing itself out.

The weather is actually really nice right now because there’s not a lot of humidity. It could be a few degrees cooler but not gonna make a big deal about that. Hoping for some rain this weekend because the past few events have missed me.

[orangeblood]

The North Pacific El Nino firehose type pattern eventually will end. That is not too concerning to me, it is self destructive without an El Nino.

Do want to see improvements in the cryosphere so that when it does happen, eventually, we'll be set up for high latitude blocking.

These North Pacific warm anomalies are causing havoc...very noteworthy. In fact, looking at these Historical west coast QPF amounts, it may be time to throw out all the Analogs/Prediction sit back and just enjoy this rare synoptic event unfold!!!

Over the past 60 days, some parts of Cali have 400-500% of normal precip and some models are doubling those amounts over next 2 weeks...50-60 inch QPF amounts in just 60 days!

Have zero clue how any long range winter forecaster can have any confidence moving forward dealing with this one!!



Just look at that PACIFIC JET , incredible!

[Ntxw]

The EC is showing signs of wave breaks in the Pacific. Like I mentioned the Nino north Pacific pattern is self destructive. You keep lowering pressures the deep Aleutian systems pumps heat ahead and above it. It will break. CFSv2 by the end of the month sticking a -EPO pattern.

[Iceresistance]

The North Pacific El Nino firehose type pattern eventually will end. That is not too concerning to me, it is self destructive without an El Nino.

Do want to see improvements in the cryosphere so that when it does happen, eventually, we'll be set up for high latitude blocking.

These North Pacific warm anomalies are causing havoc...very noteworthy. In fact, looking at these Historical west coast QPF amounts, it may be time to throw out all the Analogs/Prediction sit back and just enjoy this rare synoptic event unfold!!!

Over the past 60 days, some parts of Cali have 400-500% of normal precip and some models are doubling those amounts over next 2 weeks...50-60 inch QPF amounts in just 60 days!

Have zero clue how any long range winter forecaster can have any confidence moving forward dealing with this one!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/ostia-all/globe/sst_anom/1672790400-Z70zDR7owpE.png

Just look at that PACIFIC JET , incredible!
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/pacwide/z200_speed/1672920000/1673092800-lHsaGGQ9F7A.png

Has there ever been a La Niña featuring this?

[orangeblood]

The EC is showing signs of wave breaks in the Pacific. Like I mentioned the Nino north Pacific pattern is self destructive. You keep lowering pressures the deep Aleutian systems pumps heat ahead and above it. It will break. CFSv2 by the end of the month sticking a -EPO pattern.

Much improved over previous forecasts...

[Brent]

Im still not that concerned there is no way imo that on January 5th there won't be some other sort of winter thing before it's over

[South Texas Storms]

Latest Euro Weeklies show much colder conditions returning to a large part of the US late January into early February. Seems reasonable. I do not think winter is over for us yet. I'm expecting at least one more round of cold weather before spring arrives.

[Ntxw]

Latest Euro Weeklies show much colder conditions returning to a large part of the US late January into early February. Seems reasonable. I do not think winter is over for us yet. I'm expecting at least one more round of cold weather before spring arrives.

The pattern reverses off the west coast. Rubberband effect after the 20th. It looks like a set up for cold dump into the interior of the country again into the first week of Feb. This is what the cfsv2 has been shifting towards.

[Iceresistance]

Latest Euro Weeklies show much colder conditions returning to a large part of the US late January into early February. Seems reasonable. I do not think winter is over for us yet. I'm expecting at least one more round of cold weather before spring arrives.

The pattern reverses off the west coast. Rubberband effect after the 20th. It looks like a set up for cold dump into the interior of the country again into the first week of Feb. This is what the cfsv2 has been shifting towards.

https://i.imgur.com/rMG0CHQ.png

ECR and SE Ridge with NW Trough? This is similar to February 2021. I don't think this will be a repeat of it though.

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1611122129822535685

[bubba hotep]

Euro Weeklies look like a return to seasonal temps with some colder risk in February. They do relax the Pacific pattern, but it takes a while for cold to rebuild in Western Canada, so probably looking out beyond the first week of Feb. The Mountain West out to the Sierras will continue their epic winter; this looks like one for the ages out there!

Also, the Euro monthlies show a cool start to Spring, esp. in April. Kind of looks like the lag pattern of a February SSW.

[orangeblood]

Latest Euro Weeklies show much colder conditions returning to a large part of the US late January into early February. Seems reasonable. I do not think winter is over for us yet. I'm expecting at least one more round of cold weather before spring arrives.

The pattern reverses off the west coast. Rubberband effect after the 20th. It looks like a set up for cold dump into the interior of the country again into the first week of Feb. This is what the cfsv2 has been shifting towards.

https://i.imgur.com/rMG0CHQ.png

Yep, good signs…this forecasted break is currently right outside medium range ensembles. Almost within range…

[Ntxw]

Latest Euro Weeklies show much colder conditions returning to a large part of the US late January into early February. Seems reasonable. I do not think winter is over for us yet. I'm expecting at least one more round of cold weather before spring arrives.

The pattern reverses off the west coast. Rubberband effect after the 20th. It looks like a set up for cold dump into the interior of the country again into the first week of Feb. This is what the cfsv2 has been shifting towards.

https://i.imgur.com/rMG0CHQ.png

Yep, good signs…this forecasted break is currently right outside medium range ensembles. Almost within range…

It will take a little more time. Trough will enter the west first before you get a connected TPV and trailing trough from Hudson Bay to the southwest US. This is classic cold pattern we have seen the past few years with -PNA and SE ridge. That dagger cold pattern down the Rockies.

[Iceresistance]

The pattern reverses off the west coast. Rubberband effect after the 20th. It looks like a set up for cold dump into the interior of the country again into the first week of Feb. This is what the cfsv2 has been shifting towards.

https://i.imgur.com/rMG0CHQ.png

Yep, good signs…this forecasted break is currently right outside medium range ensembles. Almost within range…

It will take a little more time. Trough will enter the west first before you get a connected TPV and trailing trough from Hudson Bay to the southwest US. This is classic cold pattern we have seen the past few years with -PNA and SE ridge. That dagger cold pattern down the Rockies.

The ECR (East Coast Ridge) can also really help funnel the cold here. That may have been the case in February 2021. I noticed the ridge along the East Coast when the cold really came down.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The pattern reverses off the west coast. Rubberband effect after the 20th. It looks like a set up for cold dump into the interior of the country again into the first week of Feb. This is what the cfsv2 has been shifting towards.

https://i.imgur.com/rMG0CHQ.png

Yep, good signs…this forecasted break is currently right outside medium range ensembles. Almost within range…

It will take a little more time. Trough will enter the west first before you get a connected TPV and trailing trough from Hudson Bay to the southwest US. This is classic cold pattern we have seen the past few years with -PNA and SE ridge. That dagger cold pattern down the Rockies.

Troughs that come down the Rockies is a great recipe for winter weather in TX

[Quixotic]

Next person who compares to Feb 2021 should be permabanned. Holy moly. If it’s imminent great. If we are talking about the frigging CFS then it’s absurd. There are few comparisons to Feb 2021: Dec 83, Jan/Feb 78, Jan 79, Feb 85, Dec 89, Feb 11 and any month of 2013. That’s 9 months out of the 150 winter months I’ve been here.

[Iceresistance]

Next person who compares to Feb 2021 should be permabanned. Holy moly. If it’s imminent great. If we are talking about the frigging CFS then it’s absurd. There are few comparisons to Feb 2021: Dec 83, Jan/Feb 78, Jan 79, Feb 85, Feb 11 and any month of 2013. That’s 9 months out of the 150 months I’ve been here.

Why me?
I used it with the intention of referencing to another similar pattern that has been showing up on the models.

The CFS is terrible with general forecasting (especially in the very long range), but it's really good with general patterns once it shows consistency!

[Quixotic]

Next person who compares to Feb 2021 should be permabanned. Holy moly. If it’s imminent great. If we are talking about the frigging CFS then it’s absurd. There are few comparisons to Feb 2021: Dec 83, Jan/Feb 78, Jan 79, Feb 85, Feb 11 and any month of 2013. That’s 9 months out of the 150 months I’ve been here.

Why me?
I used it with the intention of referencing to another similar pattern that has been showing up on the models.

The CFS is terrible with general forecasting (especially in the very long range), but it's really good with general patterns once it shows consistency!

Because it’s based on hope and hype and not reality. I see signs of hope for wintry mischief. I don’t see anything even resembling Feb 2021.

[Iceresistance]

Increasing number of Euro Ensembles are showing a true SSW in February, someone named Mark Margavage (AKA MeteoMark) has confirmed that trend on Twitter.