ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[drezee]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060011
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 20 20120806
000100 1536N 07854W 8428 01559 0082 +172 +141 100024 025 031 002 00
000130 1535N 07854W 8429 01558 0081 +171 +140 098024 025 029 002 00
000200 1533N 07855W 8429 01554 0078 +175 +139 096025 025 031 002 00
000230 1532N 07856W 8428 01556 0076 +176 +138 092025 025 031 002 00
000300 1530N 07857W 8430 01553 0077 +173 +138 094025 026 032 001 00
000330 1529N 07858W 8429 01551 0076 +172 +138 089025 026 033 003 00
000400 1527N 07859W 8429 01551 0069 +180 +138 083026 026 033 003 00
000430 1526N 07859W 8429 01550 0065 +185 +138 080024 026 034 002 00
000500 1524N 07900W 8428 01550 0064 +184 +139 086023 025 032 003 00
000530 1522N 07901W 8429 01549 0065 +185 +141 090031 034 034 004 00
000600 1521N 07902W 8429 01548 0063 +184 +142 086032 033 037 004 00
000630 1519N 07903W 8419 01559 0077 +160 +143 094031 033 045 015 03
000700 1518N 07904W 8429 01543 0077 +151 +141 098034 036 042 012 00
000730 1516N 07905W 8430 01540 0073 +155 +135 106030 033 044 014 00
000800 1515N 07905W 8425 01547 0069 +163 +130 105025 032 041 009 00
000830 1513N 07906W 8424 01543 0061 +169 +128 106025 026 040 006 00
000900 1512N 07907W 8430 01534 0054 +181 +128 096027 027 036 005 00
000930 1510N 07908W 8429 01536 0049 +187 +131 098024 027 021 002 00
001000 1509N 07909W 8428 01537 0041 +200 +134 093023 024 017 002 00
001030 1507N 07910W 8432 01531 0033 +208 +138 089018 022 015 003 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060011
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 20 20120806
000100 1536N 07854W 8428 01559 0082 +172 +141 100024 025 031 002 00
000130 1535N 07854W 8429 01558 0081 +171 +140 098024 025 029 002 00
000200 1533N 07855W 8429 01554 0078 +175 +139 096025 025 031 002 00
000230 1532N 07856W 8428 01556 0076 +176 +138 092025 025 031 002 00
000300 1530N 07857W 8430 01553 0077 +173 +138 094025 026 032 001 00
000330 1529N 07858W 8429 01551 0076 +172 +138 089025 026 033 003 00
000400 1527N 07859W 8429 01551 0069 +180 +138 083026 026 033 003 00
000430 1526N 07859W 8429 01550 0065 +185 +138 080024 026 034 002 00
000500 1524N 07900W 8428 01550 0064 +184 +139 086023 025 032 003 00
000530 1522N 07901W 8429 01549 0065 +185 +141 090031 034 034 004 00
000600 1521N 07902W 8429 01548 0063 +184 +142 086032 033 037 004 00
000630 1519N 07903W 8419 01559 0077 +160 +143 094031 033 045 015 03
000700 1518N 07904W 8429 01543 0077 +151 +141 098034 036 042 012 00
000730 1516N 07905W 8430 01540 0073 +155 +135 106030 033 044 014 00
000800 1515N 07905W 8425 01547 0069 +163 +130 105025 032 041 009 00
000830 1513N 07906W 8424 01543 0061 +169 +128 106025 026 040 006 00
000900 1512N 07907W 8430 01534 0054 +181 +128 096027 027 036 005 00
000930 1510N 07908W 8429 01536 0049 +187 +131 098024 027 021 002 00
001000 1509N 07909W 8428 01537 0041 +200 +134 093023 024 017 002 00
001030 1507N 07910W 8432 01531 0033 +208 +138 089018 022 015 003 00
$$

1003.3 mbs and falling.

[jonj2040]

[cycloneye]

Plane has not reached center and pressure is down to 1003.3 mbs.

[Weatherfreak000]

Yeah I looked at some close range visibles...still highly disorganized and still racing too fast west. Cancel him.

[cycloneye]

I will post the first pass on next set and then I have to go. Who wants to continue?

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060022
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 21 20120806
001100 1505N 07910W 8427 01534 0030 +212 +143 083012 017 010 001 00
001130 1504N 07910W 8435 01527 0027 +216 +149 077011 012 005 003 00
001200 1502N 07909W 8425 01536 0024 +215 +155 047005 010 006 003 03
001230 1501N 07909W 8429 01533 0026 +215 +159 320001 004 008 003 03
001300 1459N 07908W 8431 01527 0031 +205 +163 283005 008 /// /// 03
001330 1458N 07909W 8424 01542 0039 +200 +165 327011 012 014 002 00
001400 1457N 07911W 8430 01537 0040 +200 +166 336011 012 011 003 00
001430 1455N 07912W 8428 01540 0042 +200 +166 335011 012 007 003 00
001500 1454N 07913W 8429 01539 0043 +198 +165 332011 013 007 003 00
001530 1453N 07914W 8429 01540 0041 +203 +164 342015 015 012 002 00
001600 1452N 07916W 8429 01540 0043 +200 +163 341015 015 011 003 03
001630 1451N 07917W 8428 01545 0046 +202 +163 340017 017 010 001 00
001700 1449N 07918W 8425 01547 0047 +200 +163 336017 017 008 002 00
001730 1448N 07919W 8428 01545 0047 +200 +162 332018 018 004 002 03
001800 1447N 07921W 8429 01544 0048 +200 +162 329019 020 005 002 00
001830 1446N 07922W 8428 01547 0050 +199 +162 331021 022 004 002 00
001900 1445N 07923W 8428 01548 0052 +196 +161 334022 022 005 002 00
001930 1443N 07925W 8429 01549 0054 +197 +160 335021 022 005 003 00
002000 1442N 07926W 8428 01551 0056 +195 +159 336020 020 005 004 03
002030 1441N 07927W 8430 01548 0056 +196 +158 340021 021 005 003 00
$$

1002.4 mbs the lowest.

[littlevince]

I will post the first pass on next set and then I have to go. Who wants to continue?

Can take it for a while

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure of first pass was 1002.4 mbs. Ok Vince.

[drezee]

Finally! We have NW winds!!! LLC closed

[Cyclenall]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I gotta tell ya something looks a bit interesting however tonight....South Texas is certainly not out of play. Ernesto appears to now only be moving at 17 MPH...slowest he has moved yet. Convection is on the increase and he appears to be gaining some latitude again, which is huge because he has been moving due west when he weakens and move WNW when he's getting stronger. That was the argument for the NGOM threat in the first place.


No reason to stop watching Ernesto tonight. He may yet prove to be full of surprises, and there is still plenty of time for him to make some moves.

I disagree with everything stated here, Ernesto is now as uninteresting as it possibly can be. We're looking at a open wave that is about to run into CA...not interesting to me in the slightest. Still looks to be racing too fast westwards, don't see much latitude gain, not going into Texas, not going to get its act together much before CA, and not much time left based on where Ernesto was suppose to be at this time yesterday and where he is now.

...ERNESTO GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...

I don't see any evidence of this.

The center appears to be 30 miles or so west of that blow-up. It's passing 80W now.

I'm now as pessimistic about this system as you are wxman57 (wow!). The only reason I'm checking Erbusto still is to see how crummy he can get.

[cycloneye]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I gotta tell ya something looks a bit interesting however tonight....South Texas is certainly not out of play. Ernesto appears to now only be moving at 17 MPH...slowest he has moved yet. Convection is on the increase and he appears to be gaining some latitude again, which is huge because he has been moving due west when he weakens and move WNW when he's getting stronger. That was the argument for the NGOM threat in the first place.


No reason to stop watching Ernesto tonight. He may yet prove to be full of surprises, and there is still plenty of time for him to make some moves.

I disagree with everything stated here, Ernesto is now as uninteresting as it possibly can be. We're looking at a open wave that is about to run into CA...not interesting to me in the slightest. Still looks to be racing too fast westwards, don't see much latitude gain, not going into Texas, not going to get its act together much before CA, and not much time left based on where Ernesto was suppose to be at this time yesterday and where he is now.

...ERNESTO GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...

I don't see any evidence of this.

The center appears to be 30 miles or so west of that blow-up. It's passing 80W now.

I'm now as pessimistic about this system as you are wxman57 (wow!). The only reason I'm checking Erbusto still is to see how crummy he can get.

First pass of recon found lowest pressure of 1002.4 mbs.

[jonj2040]

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060029
AF309 0705A ERNESTO HDOB 22 20120806
002100 1440N 07928W 8429 01551 0057 +196 +158 339019 021 004 003 00
002130 1439N 07930W 8426 01553 0058 +195 +157 337018 018 003 003 00
002200 1437N 07931W 8429 01551 0062 +190 +157 340017 018 007 002 00
002230 1436N 07932W 8430 01550 0064 +187 +157 340019 020 007 002 00
002300 1435N 07933W 8429 01553 0065 +185 +156 342019 020 004 004 00
002330 1434N 07935W 8426 01555 0066 +187 +155 343018 019 004 004 03
002400 1433N 07936W 8429 01554 0070 +185 +154 347019 019 008 004 00
002430 1431N 07937W 8429 01555 0072 +181 +153 347017 018 009 002 00
002500 1430N 07939W 8430 01555 0073 +181 +152 349016 017 006 002 00
002530 1429N 07940W 8427 01559 0077 +175 +151 337016 017 004 003 03
002600 1428N 07941W 8430 01557 0077 +179 +151 331014 014 006 001 00
002630 1427N 07942W 8426 01560 0078 +177 +149 331016 017 004 003 00
002700 1425N 07944W 8429 01559 0078 +175 +149 334020 020 009 003 00
002730 1424N 07945W 8430 01556 0081 +173 +148 343020 021 012 004 00
002800 1423N 07946W 8426 01561 0083 +169 +145 350015 021 017 003 00
002830 1422N 07948W 8426 01561 0083 +175 +142 336014 014 012 003 00
002900 1421N 07949W 8429 01561 0083 +176 +139 338014 014 005 003 00
002930 1419N 07950W 8429 01560 0082 +175 +138 342014 014 006 002 00
003000 1418N 07951W 8429 01561 0083 +175 +138 342013 014 008 000 00
003030 1417N 07953W 8428 01562 0083 +175 +138 343014 014 007 001 03
$$
;

[drezee]

000
URNT12 KNHC 060022
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/00:12:20Z
B. 15 deg 01 min N
079 deg 09 min W
C. 850 mb 1459 m
D. 37 kt
E. 018 deg 21 nm
F. 098 deg 36 kt
G. 020 deg 16 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 19 C / 1525 m
J. 22 C / 1529 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 08
MAX FL WIND 36 KT N QUAD 00:07:00Z

[wxman57]

Not quite. Let's see some SW-W winds to close off an LLC. I tracked it (stratus swirl) about 60 miles west of this fix on satellite. The plane hasn't found any wind blowing toward a center. The winds are all blowing away from that fix point.

[Weatherfreak000]

1002 Mb!?!?!? is that really official?



GFDL says 998 by tomorrow.....hmmmmm....

[Cyclenall]

Yeah I looked at some close range visibles...still highly disorganized and still racing too fast west. Cancel him.

You saw the light before I posted. When recon yesterday morning found a weakening Erbusto, I knew it was over.

First pass of recon found lowest pressure of 1002.4 mbs.

Means little to me. Have they found a decent west wind yet?

[Zeno8]

Finally! We have NW winds!!! LLC closed

[wxman57]

Most likely it'll be inland over Honduras tomorrow morning. Plane reported 1005mb, by the way.