ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3301 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 27, 2016 12:17 pm

12z GEM Closes this off right away and heads for Appalahicola as a 984mb Storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3302 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 12:20 pm

Animation of GFS 12Z run
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3303 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 12:22 pm

Here is the trend of the 36 hour frame.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3304 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 27, 2016 12:45 pm

Well the HWRF just decided to destroy Tampa again...At this point the models are just plain laughable. It's like they are throwing any scenario at the wall to see if it will stick. I suppose one of them is going to get it right due to variety of options.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3305 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 12:55 pm

12Z Euro running

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3306 Postby hurrtracker79 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:04 pm

Much much stronger vort at 48 hours versus the 0Z run. Hmmm...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3307 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:06 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3308 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:07 pm

Much better defined than the previous few runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3309 Postby xcool22 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:08 pm

tolakram wrote:Much better defined than the previous few runs.


way better..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3310 Postby TheAustinMan » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:09 pm

The Euro at +72 hours, around August 30.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3311 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:11 pm

... and now for something completely different.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3312 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:13 pm

I wonder if the Bermuda swirl that looks to stay decently organized is what has been throwing the models off?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3313 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:13 pm

cmc going cazy make 99l strong before coming here http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_5.png
Last edited by tolakram on Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed direct image link
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3314 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:15 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3315 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:16 pm

tolakram wrote:I wonder if the Bermuda swirl that looks to stay decently organized is what has been throwing the models off?



The models that keep 91L weak track 99L further west.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3316 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:20 pm

HWRF at it again got ts passing by keywest http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 99L_15.png
Last edited by tolakram on Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed direct image link
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3317 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:20 pm

tolakram wrote:Image of Euro


Lol. You've got to be kidding.

In the real world, is the ridge pulsing back in a few days, because with the warm water off the US East Coast, any troughs coming through this early will be transient. Timing gets important if 99L makes its way to the central gulf. Obviously I'm not buying the euro at this time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3318 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:23 pm

Comedy or drama? Run to run consistency is nowhere.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3319 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:24 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3320 Postby La Breeze » Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:26 pm

tolakram wrote:Comedy or drama? Run to run consistency is nowhere.

[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/LxAylFc.png[/img]

According to this latest scenario, in which direction would it be heading, NW, N, NE?
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