ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks likes the trough broke off a small ULL over the Yucatan.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

The rest of the trough is pretty much getting taken out by convection.

[NDG]

It better start heading NNW soon or is going to miss its next forecast point.
It looks like is going to reach the 15th latitude much near 75W, further west than forecasted.

[GCANE]

It better start heading NNW soon or is going to miss its next forecast point.
It looks like is going to reach the 15th latitude much near 75W, further west than forecasted.

A recurring theme.

[NDG]

BTW, I had one heck of a mean late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm here in the Orlando area, SW Seminole County, they even put us on a flash flood warning, first time in a long time.
What I am getting to is that the front & drier air never made it to us when a few days ago forecasters were talking about the dry air & cold front passing through here, definitely the ridge has been stronger than earlier forecasted.

[AdamFirst]

It better start heading NNW soon or is going to miss its next forecast point.
It looks like is going to reach the 15th latitude much near 75W, further west than forecasted.

Yep...gaining more longitude then latitude at this point

[HurricaneEric]

It better start heading NNW soon or is going to miss its next forecast point.
It looks like is going to reach the 15th latitude much near 75W, further west than forecasted.

A recurring theme.

Which is a bit concerning considering the models seem to have this making a NW turn once in the Bahamas. Would be getting closer and closer to our neck of the woods the more west its emergence off Cuba is.

[NDG]

Welcome Matthew to the higher satellite resolution, finally!

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 11:07:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°59'N 74°18'W (13.9833N 74.3W) (View map)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.97 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,069m (10,069ft)

L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast, SE
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 320° to 140° (NW to SE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)

[stormreader]

Current movement would appear to be between WNW and NW.

[NDG]

BTW, not sure if it has been mentioned that they are evacuating family members from the Naval base in Gitmo to Pensacola & Miami. I guess they don't trust their new wooden homes.

[NDG]

New recon pass confirms that Matthew has been wobbling more westward than north.

[xironman]

Recon is showing a WNW short term movement

[KWT]

I'm always a little wary of tracking storms using Sat/IR imagery during EWRC, sometimes recon confirms a very different direction for the center of the storm then you'd expect just eyeballing it.

Looks like tonights models will need another shift west...

[tolakram]

visible loop, as it comes into range.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

[NDG]

Where they found lowest pressure, funny how the NHC had their 8 AM update at 14.1N & 74.3W

12:14:00Z 14.000N 74.450W 697.4 mb
(~ 20.60 inHg) 2,676 meters
(~ 8,780 feet) 946.5 mb
(~ 27.95 inHg)

[KWT]

Where they found lowest pressure, funny how the NHC had their 8 AM update at 14.1N & 74.3W

12:14:00Z 14.000N 74.450W 697.4 mb
(~ 20.60 inHg) 2,676 meters
(~ 8,780 feet) 946.5 mb
(~ 27.95 inHg)

They were eyeballing it, but its not easy when the eye goes all clouded. Looks like they followed the NW motion and extrapolated it BUT its wobbled west.

MAYBE stair-casing mind you.

[robbielyn]

it was clear though this was moving wnw cuz it went west then north and then west succinctly. it wasn't wobbling. it was actually moving in that direction.

[robbielyn]

Where they found lowest pressure, funny how the NHC had their 8 AM update at 14.1N & 74.3W

12:14:00Z 14.000N 74.450W 697.4 mb
(~ 20.60 inHg) 2,676 meters
(~ 8,780 feet) 946.5 mb
(~ 27.95 inHg)

They were eyeballing it, but its not easy when the eye goes all clouded. Looks like they followed the NW motion and extrapolated it BUT its wobbled west.

MAYBE stair-casing mind you.

yes it was staircasing

[northjaxpro]

BTW, I had one heck of a mean late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm here in the Orlando area, SW Seminole County, they even put us on a flash flood warning, first time in a long time.
What I am getting to is that the front & drier air never made it to us when a few days ago forecasters were talking about the dry air & cold front passing through here, definitely the ridge has been stronger than earlier forecasted.

Yes indeed. I agree. I also feel the ridge has been stonger than anticipated, thus the growing concerns potentially down the road with Matthew.

[stormreader]

Not sure, just a hunch, but it looks just recently like Mathew's forward speed is beginning to increase some. This coupled with the more westerly component would be a sure sign that it's feeling the effects of the strengthening Atlantic ridge. It also would tend to portend that westerly component continuing further down the line (perhaps, as I have been speculating) until it makes its crossing of Cuba at a point near Key West.