ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

If I were to guess, Recon will find a lower pressure owing to its growing size, but winds steady or slightly lower.

[ronyan]

Smaller Flo eye appearing?
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

No, it's having internal structural issues. An eye contraction wouldn't happen that quickly.

[Airboy]

Smaller Flo eye appearing?
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

Looks like it's improving again watching IR last half hour or so.

[Vdogg]

With every model run that Southwest drift becomes less pronounced. I'm honestly still not sold on it.

[Hurricane Andrew]

If I were to guess, Recon will find a lower pressure owing to its growing size, but winds steady or slightly lower.

You've been watching these storms for a while, '83. You think she'll sort out the S side? Still looks mighty messy on IR.

[ronjon]

Deep convection firing again along the western eyewall. Eye is shrinking and becoming circular...is Flo deepening again?

[ConvergenceZone]

If I were to guess, Recon will find a lower pressure owing to its growing size, but winds steady or slightly lower.

I was going to say 110(Cat 2) on the next advisory, but I will say 115 and still barely a Cat 3

[eastcoastFL]

there is no way she hits the next forecast point

[meriland29]

Isn't her eye supposed to widen...not shrink if she is expanding her windfield?

[CrazyC83]

If I were to guess, Recon will find a lower pressure owing to its growing size, but winds steady or slightly lower.

You've been watching these storms for a while, '83. You think she'll sort out the S side? Still looks mighty messy on IR.

Probably not. It will just keep growing in size.

[invest man]

With every model run that Southwest drift becomes less pronounced. I'm honestly still not sold on it.

Never been convinced of it! It would be very bazaar!

[p1nheadlarry]

there is no way she hits the next forecast point

Is it going north of track?

[wx98]

there is no way she hits the next forecast point

Is it going north of track?

It would appear so, been going that way throughout the day ive noticed.

[Condor]

Smaller Flo eye appearing?
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

No, it's having internal structural issues. An eye contraction wouldn't happen that quickly.

Andrew (1992), Opal (1995), and Charley (2004) all rapidly intensified within hours of making landfall. All these intensifications were accompanied by eye contractions.

[eastcoastFL]

there is no way she hits the next forecast point

Is it going north of track?

yes, quite a bit north and a bit east

[craptacular]

The next low-level recon flight (mission 13) just dropped to operational altitude at the SW edge of Florence, in case anyone is interested in posting.

[eastcoastFL]

Smaller Flo eye appearing?
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

No, it's having internal structural issues. An eye contraction wouldn't happen that quickly.

Andrew (1992), Opal (1995), and Charley (2004) all rapidly intensified within hours of making landfall. All these intensifications were accompanied by eye contractions.

true but they were in the gulf and further south in the atlantic.

[p1nheadlarry]

For those curious, Josh Morgerman of iCyclone has switched targets from Florence to Mangkhut in the WPac.

Plenty of people to document Florence anyway

[p1nheadlarry]

there is no way she hits the next forecast point

Is it going north of track?

It would appear so, been going that way throughout the day ive noticed.

I agree. Maybe this is good for SC unless it dives SW before it reaches Wilmington.

[Terrace27]

It had a bit of a NNW jog earlier today, but for the past few hours, appears to be heading WNW... probably back on track if this WNW continues for a few more hours.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-14-200-1-10-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

That loop shows the left bend pretty clearly.

Also, the outflow shape... seems to be "pointing" to the W, flattened on the N. Often suggests the direction.