ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
norva13x
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 102
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:41 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3301 Postby norva13x » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:10 am

Is it for sure at this point it is going to slow down, how certain are we of that?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3302 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:10 am

Looks like a proper eye is starting to try to clear through the deeper eyewall convection. Should fly through category 3 in the next 12-18hrs. Think this will be around 115kts by tonight.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15448
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3303 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:11 am

Winds found on latest AF recon pass on NE quadrant is not reflecting the latest pressure drop yet, no MH fore winds found yet for upgrade.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3355
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3304 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:11 am

Image
5 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Top
User avatar
got ants?
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 3:44 am
Location: Hollywood/Ft Laud

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3305 Postby got ants? » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:11 am

NDG wrote:Who remembers when John Hope used to say on TWC that the flow of the high cirrus clouds was a sign to follow of where the Hurricane was headed? So true!

https://i.imgur.com/6edOBZ6.gif


Every Florida cracker knows that. The calm before the storm, and the banding sirrus or stratos clouds are your warning signs to put the cows in the barn, and batten the house down
4 likes   
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Steejo91
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 30
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:18 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3306 Postby Steejo91 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:13 am

Eye is certainly clearing and warming. A sign of a healthy, maintained core has been established. .Getting ready to leave OKC here in a bit to make my way down to Palm County and adjust accordingly! I expect we should see steady to rapid strengthening. My thoughts are with the people in Florida today in hopes everyone listens to whats coming.

Image
1 likes   
Tornado Intercept/Hurricane Intercept
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TornadoIntercept/
Twitter: @Tornado_Steejo
Instagram: Tornado_Steejo

A follower/member of Storm2k for 14 Years as Weatherfreak14
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3307 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:13 am

:eek: :eek: :eek:

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:https://i.imgur.com/IDz6YtG.jpg
1 likes   
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3308 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:16 am

Dorian is getting that Hugo shape...
6 likes   
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3309 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:18 am

Dorian's East-West stretch is one of the scariest things I have seen in years. It's quite literally pointing at us.
8 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3310 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:19 am

Ughhhh that satellite shot :eek:
Last edited by toad strangler on Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
AubreyStorm
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 337
Age: 44
Joined: Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:21 pm
Location: Texas, USA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3311 Postby AubreyStorm » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:21 am

toad strangler wrote:Ughhhh :eek:


What? :?:
0 likes   
The posts are NOT an official forecast. Please REFER to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.
Top
User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3312 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:23 am

93kt SFMR unflagged in the southwest quad.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15448
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3313 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:25 am

FLpanhandle91 wrote:93kt SFMR unflagged in the southwest quad.


Not enough for upgrade to Cat 3.
0 likes   
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3314 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:25 am

There you go


Image
2 likes   
Top
USTropics
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2659
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3315 Postby USTropics » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:26 am

Past 100 frames:
Image
4 likes   
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3316 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:27 am

supercane4867 wrote:Dorian is getting that Hugo shape...




Link:
https://www.weather.gov/images/chs/even ... go_vis.gif


Yeah, Dorian does resemble Hugo in satellite appearance right now.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3317 Postby jasons2k » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:27 am

Yes, the eye clearing is concerning but almost more concerning when I look at the satellite loops is the improved cirrus outflow presentation in all directions now. An ominous sign indeed.
3 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3318 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:27 am

Live visible

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=14&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1256.8601684570312&y=1252.8485412597656
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
zhukm29
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 279
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:37 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3319 Postby zhukm29 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:27 am

This thing has four days over warm waters and low shear...

Image
4 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3320 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:28 am

NDG wrote:Winds found on latest AF recon pass on NE quadrant is not reflecting the latest pressure drop yet, no MH fore winds found yet for upgrade.


Probably going to be 6-12hrs before the winds catch up with the improved presentation. once the eye clears pressure will probably drop into the 950s.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests