ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

You can follow the GFS vorticity plots to see what idea it has. This does get a little more concentrated and then smears east, off the east coast, before dissipating.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2015083118&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=256

[northjaxpro]

One thing tolakram the GFS plots showed above is that whatever comes of this system, this much seems likely: This will be hanging around for quite awhile as there is just nowhere for it to go in the immediate short term, thanks to the presence of that massive ridge in the Western Atlantic preventing this system from moving out to sea.

[Steve]

Just for the record, RPM (radar derivative product) on Fox 8 totally closed it off tomorrow and actually wound it up for big bend landfall looking tight. It's probably bs but it was west of Tampa in the morning and hits the coast for a few hours into Wednesday. No way I'm saying it's gonna happen. Those types of TV models are hit and miss at best. But the way it drew the circulation on the model was worth mentioning.

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: One thing tolakram the GFS plots showed above is that whatever comes of this system, this much seems likely: This will be hanging around for quite awhile as there is just nowhere for it to go in the immediate short term, thanks to the presence of that massive ridge in the Western Atlantic preventing this system from moving out to sea.

Yeah, it looks if there is something intact and if it gets trapped, it would likely take til ~9/10 for whatever to play out and move out of the region and/or onshore to the W, NW, or N.

[N2FSU]

The 00z WRF (yeh, I know) still develops a little something before moving into the Panhandle tonight.

[tropicwatch]

Well she has a good radar presentation but no pressure falls and limited convection.

[N2FSU]

Convection really on the increase this morning with good rotation noted.

[N2FSU]

[wxman57]

There's a very weak surface trof across the NE Gulf, but pressures are 1017-1018mb. More of a high than a low pressure area.

[tropicwatch]

The rotation is probably mid level but it does look good on radar

[ronjon]

Yeah some of the in-house weather models from our local TV stations in Tampa were developing this. Presumably WRF or some variation of a mesoscale model. Here's the latest VIS SAT.

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&isingle=multiple&itype=vis

[ronjon]

Almost looks like a TD on radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=tbw&loop=yes

[drezee]

Looks like the trough that began Beryl from 1994...

[sponger]

I am amazed pressures are that high. Has to be a mid level that is not making it to the surface. Interesting to see if it does before crossing over land.

[HurricaneBelle]

We're getting a training band of storms moving S-N in Western Pinellas County right now, more flooding should be in the cards.

[drezee]

Beryl 1994: A large upper-level low pressure area developed over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean that was situated to the north of Puerto Rico on August 9. The disturbance moved westward, and despite weakening to a trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere, there was evidence of a low- to mid-level circulation off the southwest coast of Florida on August 12. The next day, surface observations and ship reports suggested the presence of a weak 1014 mb surface low pressure system. Moving towards the north-northwest, a cloud-pattern was identified on satellite imagery, and Dvorak estimates were initiated at 0000 UTC on August 14. Based on data from surface observations, satellite imagery, and information from reconnaissance aircraft, the system is estimated to have become a tropical depression at 1200 UTC on August 14; at the time, the depression was located approximately 120 miles (190 km) south of Pensacola, Florida.[3]

[Sanibel]

GOM has been teasing development all year and delivering nothing.

[ronjon]

GOM has been teasing development all year and delivering nothing.

At the same time, something is bound to develop. It is September 1st.

[1900hurricane]

Well, there was Bill.

[ronjon]

Pinellas Beaches getting hammered now.