Texas Winter 2023-2024

[orangeblood]

Canada be torching again to end January

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S01SZ.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S01SZ.png

But Alaska is frozen.

If I recall correctly that when Alaska gets cold, watch out below!

Depends!!!...usually depends on the look at 500mb to unload the cold, it's going to come downstream into the US just a matter of how??? Right now, unfortunately, it looks like the cold is going out over the Northeastern Pacific/Modifying then coming ashore into the West Coast. Need a big EPO drop to unload the cold down the spine of the Rockies (to minimize modification) but doesn't look like that will happen this time around.

[Stratton23]

Orangeblood too early to speculate, cold will come, this will just be a slow process, EPO begins to go negative around the 7th, AO also goes negative as well as the NAO on the EPS guidance nothing crazy negative but should be enough to get some come air down here

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't look for a cold dump until mid-February.

That Alaskan cold will fuel a big Aleutian trough that will transfer pieces into the Southwest->Southern Plains. Very wet pattern for California and Texas. Our chances lies in one of these systems dragging enough cold for a snow event (seems we've been hoping for that Nino-type event all winter) as the AO goes negative.

[orangeblood]

Orangeblood too early to speculate, cold will come, this will just be a slow process, EPO begins to go negative around the 7th, AO also goes negative as well as the NAO on the EPS guidance nothing crazy negative but should be enough to get some come air down here

Just pointing out that it appears the cold anomalies in Alaska right now won't appear to have much of an extreme cold impact in our neighborhood anytime soon.

[Stratton23]

Heres to hoping we cash in on a big system, precipitation without cold air is wasted precipitation, could care less about the rain, pattern looks pretty boring until mid february

[Ntxw]

A little look back the cold that occurred the middle third of this month has been impressive. Many (including in Texas) experienced a top 5 coldest mid-January period on record. Many stations surrounding DFW was #1 or #2 and many others in central Texas as well. Even getting a below normal month is tough, getting -5F+ in the heart of the coldest averaged month is pretty wild.



Equally as impressive, after all the discussion of uncoupling/odd El Nino, DJF for many may just end up with your typical Nino climo after all. Warm Dec, cold Jan/Feb and above precip. It does as it always do.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/EagleEyeStorm/status/1749737194141450715

[wxman22]

Heres to hoping we cash in on a big system, precipitation without cold air is wasted precipitation, could care less about the rain, pattern looks pretty boring until mid february

Please stop with these kinds of comments. We all love winter weather here. But the rainfall removing the drought across the state is much more important to the infrastructure and well-being of the community.Than getting a "winter storm".This rainfall is definitely not wasted, we live in Texas not Minnesota, winter weather isn't guaranteed...

[Stratton23]

Moving on, hopefully we can shut the faucet off down here, my backyard is completely flooded and muddy, i could use a couple weeks of drier weather after this

[vbhoutex]

3.54" yesterday in NW Harris County(Houston metro). At least another 0.50" so far today and still raining.
We are definitely kicking the drought down the street in SE TX.

[Gotwood]

Heres to hoping we cash in on a big system, precipitation without cold air is wasted precipitation, could care less about the rain, pattern looks pretty boring until mid february

Please stop with these kinds of comments. We all love winter weather here. But the rainfall removing the drought across the state is much more important to the infrastructure and well-being of the community.Than getting a "winter storm".This rainfall is definitely not wasted, we live in Texas not Minnesota, winter weather isn't guaranteed...

Need that rain to shift more west.

[txtwister78]

Heres to hoping we cash in on a big system, precipitation without cold air is wasted precipitation, could care less about the rain, pattern looks pretty boring until mid february

Please stop with these kinds of comments. We all love winter weather here. But the rainfall removing the drought across the state is much more important to the infrastructure and well-being of the community.Than getting a "winter storm".This rainfall is definitely not wasted, we live in Texas not Minnesota, winter weather isn't guaranteed...

Well said and couldn't agree more.

[cstrunk]

2.29" in Longview yesterday. Heavy rain has returned this morning.

2.68" so far today. 4.97" in about 36 hours.

There's a lull in the precip now. Should still see scattered showers for the rest of the day, but not as heavy.

[CaptinCrunch]

The rain has moved out of Tarrant Co, maybe a few passing showers later this afternoon into the evening. Once this round moves off we should start drying out some before next chance of showers and cooler temps.

[Stratton23]

I apologize for the dumb comment I made about the rain above, I completely hope we can crack this drought for good, I do have a lot of wishful thinking for frozen precip down here, thats just the weather nerd side of me that came out, I really dont mind the rain, I just dont like it when it comes all at once and it leaves you’re backyard all mushy and muddy

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
113 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday/

Our active weather pattern continues today as a passing upper
level disturbance interacts with a nearly stationary surface
boundary located over our southern counties. Continued
development of showers is expected through the afternoon and
evening, mainly along/east of I-35. The overall threat for
lightning has diminished since this morning due to limited
instability, but we can`t rule out a storm or two. While our main
concern is still the heavy rain potential, given the radar trends
over the last few hours...only a few spots may see increased
flooding concerns through the evening hours. As the shortwave
departs tonight, rain chances will decrease with the exception of
areas across the Brazos Valley. Another round of fog (some dense)
and low clouds will develop overnight tonight, keeping
temperatures generally in the 40s to low 50s.

Most locations will stay dry Wednesday morning, but another wave
of rain is expected in the afternoon. Warm advection showers will
likely develop ahead of an eastward moving upper level trough
currently over the Four Corners. Coverage across our region should
remain fairly scattered, but there is a medium confidence
(40-60%) that a few locations across the southeast will see
another inch of rain on Wednesday. Minor flooding may occur in
those areas that receive the highest rainfall totals. Otherwise,
expect daytime highs in the 50s to low 60s with light northerly
winds.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 400 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024/
/Thursday Through the End of the Month/

Rain chances will exit Central and East Texas early Thursday as a
decaying shortwave passes to our east. Wet ground and light winds
will result in yet another morning fog event. But as the sun
re-emerges, and winds turn southerly, afternoon temperatures will
soar above normal for the first time since before last week`s
snow event.

An even milder day will follow on Friday, but with rain chances
returning. Our wet week will culminate on Friday when the last in
a series of disturbances swings through the region. As another
round of morning fog occurs across Central and East Texas, showers
and storms will enter the region from the west. The activity will
spread across the region throughout the day. The system`s shear
will be largely offset by poor quality moisture within the
boundary layer, resulting from seasonally weak instability.
However, thunderstorms will still accompany the activity, the
influx of cold air aloft potentially allowing for small hail.

The associated cold front will bring an end to the rain chances
early Saturday while also arresting the late week warming trend.
The remainder of the month will be precipitation-free, with above
normal temperatures returning next week.

[Brent]

Heres to hoping we cash in on a big system, precipitation without cold air is wasted precipitation, could care less about the rain, pattern looks pretty boring until mid february

Please stop with these kinds of comments. We all love winter weather here. But the rainfall removing the drought across the state is much more important to the infrastructure and well-being of the community.Than getting a "winter storm".This rainfall is definitely not wasted, we live in Texas not Minnesota, winter weather isn't guaranteed...

Yeah and given how winter has been the last couple years... I mean we've seen how bad the snow drought is in some places back east(places that average more snow than most of y'all)... And we had colder temps than they did last week too... It's not as if everywhere else is having a good winter and not Texas.

I'll never complain about rain here because you know what it could easily not rain for months come June or July

[Edwards Limestone]

Rain is always welcome in my neck of the woods! Best rainfall we've gotten in a longgggggg time down here.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1749809087397998840

[Cpv17]

Heres to hoping we cash in on a big system, precipitation without cold air is wasted precipitation, could care less about the rain, pattern looks pretty boring until mid february

Please stop with these kinds of comments. We all love winter weather here. But the rainfall removing the drought across the state is much more important to the infrastructure and well-being of the community.Than getting a "winter storm".This rainfall is definitely not wasted, we live in Texas not Minnesota, winter weather isn't guaranteed...

Need that rain to shift more west.

Looks like the beginning of February that could happen. Looks wet statewide!

[gboudx]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
113 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024


.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday/

Our active weather pattern continues today as a passing upper
level disturbance interacts with a nearly stationary surface
boundary located over our southern counties. Continued
development of showers is expected through the afternoon and
evening, mainly along/east of I-35. The overall threat for
lightning has diminished since this morning due to limited
instability, but we can`t rule out a storm or two. While our main
concern is still the heavy rain potential, given the radar trends
over the last few hours...only a few spots may see increased
flooding concerns through the evening hours. As the shortwave
departs tonight, rain chances will decrease with the exception of
areas across the Brazos Valley. Another round of fog (some dense)
and low clouds will develop overnight tonight, keeping
temperatures generally in the 40s to low 50s.

Most locations will stay dry Wednesday morning, but another wave
of rain is expected in the afternoon. Warm advection showers will
likely develop ahead of an eastward moving upper level trough
currently over the Four Corners. Coverage across our region should
remain fairly scattered, but there is a medium confidence
(40-60%) that a few locations across the southeast will see
another inch of rain on Wednesday. Minor flooding may occur in
those areas that receive the highest rainfall totals. Otherwise,
expect daytime highs in the 50s to low 60s with light northerly
winds.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 400 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024/
/Thursday Through the End of the Month/

Rain chances will exit Central and East Texas early Thursday as a
decaying shortwave passes to our east. Wet ground and light winds
will result in yet another morning fog event. But as the sun
re-emerges, and winds turn southerly, afternoon temperatures will
soar above normal for the first time since before last week`s
snow event.

An even milder day will follow on Friday, but with rain chances
returning. Our wet week will culminate on Friday when the last in
a series of disturbances swings through the region. As another
round of morning fog occurs across Central and East Texas, showers
and storms will enter the region from the west. The activity will
spread across the region throughout the day. The system`s shear
will be largely offset by poor quality moisture within the
boundary layer, resulting from seasonally weak instability.
However, thunderstorms will still accompany the activity, the
influx of cold air aloft potentially allowing for small hail.

The associated cold front will bring an end to the rain chances
early Saturday while also arresting the late week warming trend.
The remainder of the month will be precipitation-free, with above
normal temperatures returning next week.

They updated the Long Term section after you pasted it. That one was old from this morning.

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night through Tuesday/

The upper level trough axis will be moving through the region
Wednesday evening. While most of the global ensemble guidance is
clearing the rain chances to the east of us by sunset, the latest
HRRR and NamNest indicate some lingering elevated showers tracking
through the region so will carry some slight chance to low chance
PoPs during the evening hours, finally ending from west to east
early Thursday. Another round of fog is likely Wednesday night
given our saturated conditions and cold ground temperatures, but
one negating element may be light northerly winds and weak dry
advection at the surface in the wake of the trough passage. In any
case, the morning fog and/or low clouds will be slow to
burn/clear Thursday, but by afternoon some sunshine should return
to the region with high temps in the low 60s.

The break from the soupy, gloomy weather will be short-lived as
yet another upper trough deepens and tracks through our region
during the day Friday. This system will be a bit more dynamic,
with colder temperatures aloft and stronger lift, so there will be
an isolated to scattered thunderstorm threat. While shear
profiles look well organized for severe weather, the limiting
factor is instability with the ensemble guidance depicting only a
10% chance of surface CAPE exceeding 500 J/kg in the southeastern
part of the CWA. Nonetheless we can`t rule out a couple strong
storms, and we will continue to monitor the instability parameters
as we get closer in time. Rainfall amounts with this round will
not be as impressive as prior episodes. Most likely amounts are near
a tenth of an inch in Central Texas ramping up to a half inch along
the Red River - meanwhile there is just a 10% chance of totals
over an inch across North Texas.

Behind the trough a cold front will push through the region with
drier and slightly cooler temperatures setting us up for a nice
weekend and early next week with temps a little above normal.
Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s and
40s. Plenty of sunshine and light winds are also expected.