Texas Winter 2025-2026

[snownado]

12z NAM's already warmer through 00z Friday...

[Sambucol2024]

Jeff Lindner this morning
https://www.facebook.com/share/1D76ooef ... tid=wwXIfr

[Brent]

Wow I got NAM'ed haha

Over 20 inches on the clown map

[snownado]

Wow I got NAM'ed haha

Over 20 inches on the clown map

Be sure to share a ton of pics and videos.

I grew up in the Midwest and you're likely about to see a bigger snowstorm than I've ever lived through.

[snownado]

12z NAM's still producing 1-2" of sleet for DFW (very little freezing rain), but plain rain is knocking on the doorstep.

[Ntxw]

It does kind of look like Feb 2011 on this run of the NAM. It was teens and single digits on one side and 20s/30s a short distance away back then with the cold gradient.

[Lagreeneyes03]

12z NAM's still producing 1-2" of sleet for DFW (very little freezing rain), but plain rain is knocking on the doorstep.

How can the GULF COAST next to the OCEAN ( Florida) get a full blown snowstorm with no warm nose and we are 250 miles from the sea, and we have snow busting warmth?

[Brent]

Wow I got NAM'ed haha

Over 20 inches on the clown map

Be sure to share a ton of pics and videos.

I grew up in the Midwest and you're likely about to see a bigger snowstorm than I've ever lived through.

I think part of me still doesn't believe it haha. I've been commenting on Facebook about how historic this could be but I dunno if I fully believe it yet

Just yesterday the GFS was giving me 2 inches. Maybe that's why

[wxman22]

The 12z NAM is in. Regardless of the precip type you get expect a Major winter storm for the northern half of Texas.

[snownado]

12z NAM's still producing 1-2" of sleet for DFW (very little freezing rain), but plain rain is knocking on the doorstep.

How can the GULF COAST next to the OCEAN ( Florida) get a full blown snowstorm with no warm nose and we are 250 miles from the sea, and we have snow busting warmth?

Luck.

[Quixotic]

Bubba keeping calm in the eye of the storm. I like that.

[HockeyTx82]

12z NAM's still producing 1-2" of sleet for DFW (very little freezing rain), but plain rain is knocking on the doorstep.

How can the GULF COAST next to the OCEAN ( Florida) get a full blown snowstorm with no warm nose and we are 250 miles from the sea, and we have snow busting warmth?

Distance from the ocean doesn’t control snow. The storm track, depth of the cold air, and warm advection aloft do.

---

1. Florida Snow = Deep, Undisturbed Arctic Air

When the Gulf Coast or Florida gets real snow, the setup is usually:

- A strong Arctic high pushes deep cold air all the way to the Gulf.
- The cold layer is thick, not shallow.
- The surface low is south or offshore, so there’s no warm advection aloft.
- The entire atmospheric column stays below freezing.

Result:
No warm nose. No sleet. No freezing rain. Just snow.

Even with the ocean nearby, the cold air mass is so deep that the Gulf can’t modify it fast enough.

---

2. DFW Snow Busts = Shallow Cold + Southwest Flow Aloft

North Texas winter storms usually come from the southwest (Baja → NM → West TX). That’s the classic warm‑nose setup.

Typical DFW pattern:

- Cold air arrives shallow — a thin plains cold dome.
- Southwest flow aloft pulls warm, moist air over the top of that shallow cold layer.
- A warm nose forms between roughly 850–700 mb.
- Snowflakes melt into sleet or freezing rain before reaching the surface.

Result:
Surface is cold, but the mid‑levels warm just enough to ruin the snow.

---

3. Storm Track Controls Everything

- Low passes south of you → deep cold stays intact → snow.
- Low passes over or north of you → warm advection aloft → warm nose → sleet/freezing rain/rain.

Florida snow events only happen when the low is well south and the column stays fully frozen.

DFW rarely gets that alignment.

---

4. The Ocean Isn’t the Deciding Factor

The Gulf only warms the surface.
Snow depends on the entire vertical temperature profile, especially 3,000–10,000 ft up.

If the column is cold top‑to‑bottom, Florida can snow right next to the beach.
If the mid‑levels warm even slightly, DFW busts — even 250 miles inland.

---

Bottom Line

Florida snow happens when the whole column is cold.
DFW busts because our cold air is shallow and gets overrun by warm southwest flow aloft.

Distance from the ocean has nothing to do with it — the vertical temperature profile and storm track decide everything.

[wxman22]

12z NAM's still producing 1-2" of sleet for DFW (very little freezing rain), but plain rain is knocking on the doorstep.

How can the GULF COAST next to the OCEAN ( Florida) get a full blown snowstorm with no warm nose and we are 250 miles from the sea, and we have snow busting warmth?

The position of the surface low was further south into the gulf which helped to bring lower heights to the gulf coast. This storms surface reflection is further north.That puts the snow sector further inland.

[snownado]

It does kind of look like Feb 2011 on this run of the NAM. It was teens and single digits on one side and 20s/30s a short distance away back then with the cold gradient.

Now that I think about it even more, GHD 2011 was the last time we had a dedicated RECON mission for a winter storm.

[Ntxw]

12z NAM's still producing 1-2" of sleet for DFW (very little freezing rain), but plain rain is knocking on the doorstep.

How can the GULF COAST next to the OCEAN ( Florida) get a full blown snowstorm with no warm nose and we are 250 miles from the sea, and we have snow busting warmth?

Distance from the ocean doesn’t control snow. The storm track, depth of the cold air, and warm advection aloft do.

---

1. Florida Snow = Deep, Undisturbed Arctic Air

When the Gulf Coast or Florida gets real snow, the setup is usually:

- A strong Arctic high pushes deep cold air all the way to the Gulf.
- The cold layer is thick, not shallow.
- The surface low is south or offshore, so there’s no warm advection aloft.
- The entire atmospheric column stays below freezing.

Result:
No warm nose. No sleet. No freezing rain. Just snow.

Even with the ocean nearby, the cold air mass is so deep that the Gulf can’t modify it fast enough.

---

2. DFW Snow Busts = Shallow Cold + Southwest Flow Aloft

North Texas winter storms usually come from the southwest (Baja → NM → West TX). That’s the classic warm‑nose setup.

Typical DFW pattern:

- Cold air arrives shallow — a thin plains cold dome.
- Southwest flow aloft pulls warm, moist air over the top of that shallow cold layer.
- A warm nose forms between roughly 850–700 mb.
- Snowflakes melt into sleet or freezing rain before reaching the surface.

Result:
Surface is cold, but the mid‑levels warm just enough to ruin the snow.

---

3. Storm Track Controls Everything

- Low passes south of you → deep cold stays intact → snow.
- Low passes over or north of you → warm advection aloft → warm nose → sleet/freezing rain/rain.

Florida snow events only happen when the low is well south and the column stays fully frozen.

DFW rarely gets that alignment.

---

4. The Ocean Isn’t the Deciding Factor

The Gulf only warms the surface.
Snow depends on the entire vertical temperature profile, especially 3,000–10,000 ft up.

If the column is cold top‑to‑bottom, Florida can snow right next to the beach.
If the mid‑levels warm even slightly, DFW busts — even 250 miles inland.

---

Bottom Line

Florida snow happens when the whole column is cold.
DFW busts because our cold air is shallow and gets overrun by warm southwest flow aloft.

Distance from the ocean has nothing to do with it — the vertical temperature profile and storm track decide everything.

Yeah and that alignment happens once every few decades for that luck. We roll the dice annually several times. It just burns harder when it's south of you .

[Iceresistance]

Don't remember the last time the NBM was this aggressive (I got PW Plus, so that's nice)


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkKQF.png

[SnowintheFalls]

The 12z NAM is in. Regardless of the precip type you get expect a Major winter storm for the northern half of Texas.

https://i.ibb.co/hJBWCykD/IMG-0601.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/Lzn9kcPy/IMG-0602.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/pV7sbP1/IMG-0603.jpg

Wichita Falls hit that snow bullseye too early. Not liking the looks of the potential ice.

[snownado]

Don't remember the last time the NBM was this aggressive (I got PW Plus, so that's nice)

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkKQF.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkKQF.png

That would look much uglier with the GFS excluded.

[Portastorm]

As far as temperatures go, the NAM historically does very well with shallow cold air masses in Texas in terms of timing and surface temps. I assume data from the sampling that the NOAA plane did last night is part of the model guidance. Definitely raises an eyebrow with the warmer trend.

Here in Austin, given our worsening drought conditions, I’d happily take a cold rain over an ice storm. But I’m still holding out hope for a little thundersleet before it’s all over.

[Lagreeneyes03]

12z NAM's still producing 1-2" of sleet for DFW (very little freezing rain), but plain rain is knocking on the doorstep.

How can the GULF COAST next to the OCEAN ( Florida) get a full blown snowstorm with no warm nose and we are 250 miles from the sea, and we have snow busting warmth?

Distance from the ocean doesn’t control snow. The storm track, depth of the cold air, and warm advection aloft do.

---

1. Florida Snow = Deep, Undisturbed Arctic Air

When the Gulf Coast or Florida gets real snow, the setup is usually:

- A strong Arctic high pushes deep cold air all the way to the Gulf.
- The cold layer is thick, not shallow.
- The surface low is south or offshore, so there’s no warm advection aloft.
- The entire atmospheric column stays below freezing.

Result:
No warm nose. No sleet. No freezing rain. Just snow.

Even with the ocean nearby, the cold air mass is so deep that the Gulf can’t modify it fast enough.

---

2. DFW Snow Busts = Shallow Cold + Southwest Flow Aloft

North Texas winter storms usually come from the southwest (Baja → NM → West TX). That’s the classic warm‑nose setup.

Typical DFW pattern:

- Cold air arrives shallow — a thin plains cold dome.
- Southwest flow aloft pulls warm, moist air over the top of that shallow cold layer.
- A warm nose forms between roughly 850–700 mb.
- Snowflakes melt into sleet or freezing rain before reaching the surface.

Result:
Surface is cold, but the mid‑levels warm just enough to ruin the snow.

---

3. Storm Track Controls Everything

- Low passes south of you → deep cold stays intact → snow.
- Low passes over or north of you → warm advection aloft → warm nose → sleet/freezing rain/rain.

Florida snow events only happen when the low is well south and the column stays fully frozen.

DFW rarely gets that alignment.

---

4. The Ocean Isn’t the Deciding Factor

The Gulf only warms the surface.
Snow depends on the entire vertical temperature profile, especially 3,000–10,000 ft up.

If the column is cold top‑to‑bottom, Florida can snow right next to the beach.
If the mid‑levels warm even slightly, DFW busts — even 250 miles inland.

---

Bottom Line

Florida snow happens when the whole column is cold.
DFW busts because our cold air is shallow and gets overrun by warm southwest flow aloft.

Distance from the ocean has nothing to do with it — the vertical temperature profile and storm track decide everything.

Thanks for that, I knew about the column needing to be cold enough, and a deep arctic front, but the origin of the warm nose/reasoning makes sense. One would have thought that a warm nose would come from the GOM as well, but I guess geography definitely plays a bigger part.

Wild that warm air overpowers cold, except for when you want it to!