ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

I am breathing sighs of relief right now, but I know it's not over yet. SFL is safer but not yet clear. I want to see the Gulfstream data in the models first.

[ozonepete]

It looks like Hispaniola is having some effect on this right now, doesnt look as good as earlier

Looks like it's pulling in some dry air from PR. Possible some air that has dried on descent from the PR mountains has gotten into the mid-level circ. That will be a problem til it gets past DR.

[RL3AO]

For the images, care to go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/archive_for ... ne%20IRENE and place the track on GE? I found it useful to compare the obs with the projected track to see how far off the storm was moving. Need to download the latest advisory track kml each time.

It already appears south of the track, not because it is but because NHC only issues location to the nearest tenth of a degree which is causing the center to appear about 15 miles SW of the track.

[tolakram]

Not sure which direction it's moving. Remember this is looking pretty high into the storm now.

[eastcoastFL]

i have no clue where the center is

[Dave]

551
URNT15 KNHC 221650
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 39 20110822
164030 2004N 06707W 6967 03138 0034 +090 +078 128045 046 044 000 03
164100 2003N 06709W 6967 03137 0035 +089 +078 126045 045 044 000 00
164130 2002N 06710W 6966 03137 0044 +080 +080 123044 046 044 002 00
164200 2000N 06711W 6966 03135 0040 +084 +083 124045 046 043 002 00
164230 1959N 06712W 6969 03132 0036 +084 //// 125044 044 043 001 01
164300 1958N 06714W 6968 03132 0039 +081 //// 124044 046 043 004 01
164330 1957N 06715W 6966 03132 0044 +074 //// 125043 043 044 006 01
164400 1956N 06716W 6970 03127 //// +069 //// 123041 041 044 007 01
164430 1955N 06717W 6967 03128 //// +067 //// 119042 043 045 006 01
164500 1954N 06718W 6963 03130 //// +069 //// 121039 042 046 009 01
164530 1952N 06720W 6962 03130 //// +075 //// 120036 040 048 001 01
164600 1951N 06721W 6966 03124 //// +075 //// 124040 041 045 007 01
164630 1950N 06722W 6969 03118 //// +066 //// 132042 043 046 003 01
164700 1949N 06723W 6969 03117 0019 +084 //// 139043 043 045 002 01
164730 1948N 06724W 6967 03118 0011 +089 //// 140044 045 046 000 05
164800 1947N 06725W 6966 03118 0007 +092 //// 136044 045 046 000 05
164830 1945N 06726W 6970 03112 0005 +093 //// 135046 047 047 001 01
164900 1944N 06727W 6966 03116 0005 +092 +090 133045 046 046 003 00
164930 1943N 06727W 6963 03118 0007 +091 +086 134044 045 047 001 00
165000 1942N 06728W 6970 03107 0004 +090 //// 129049 050 049 002 01
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

i have no clue where the center is

[SoupBone]

Who was the poster who insisted that this was NOT A RECURVE SITUATION?? This is a recurve situation. Irene may never impact the United States!

actually if your around more you will see a lot of that sort of stuff. just the other day (saturday). 90% of everyone said no way it was going to go east of florida.

I know I was taking heat for suggesting the death ridge wasn't going anywhere and asking what people thought would make it suddenly go away. It's the nature of our discussions here I guess.

[supercane]

Trend of operational (non-interpolated) GFS past 24hr, with 12Z farthest east:

[alch97]

I agree. The center is hard to find. What do you think is going on?

[Mouton]

Not sure which direction it's moving. Remember this is looking pretty high into the storm now.

http://i.imgur.com/qP9hi.gif

Looks like it has been trending more west than west north west over the past few hours...the eye seems to be contracting also.

Since most of the models we are chating about now were based on an almost NW movement, I would expect they have gone as far east as they are going to and perhaps the path projections will be farther to the left for awhile.

In one is in Fl, I would not let down my guard, that is for sure.

Just rambling of a guy with a keyboard and too much time to be an official forecast.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

IR view of what they are about to enter:

[tolakram]

I agree. The center is hard to find. What do you think is going on?

The center is not hard to find, we have recon active in the storm.



and check out the recon thread: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111529&view=unread#unread

[Hurricaneman]

Looks to also be drifting at the moment

[Jevo]

New Joe Bastardi Tweet

TPC continues to shift to my track, intensity. Will have to shift more to ne as this is a major hit NC then nne to New England

Storm should be 3 or 4 on NC coast, 1 or 2 for New England. Heavy rains on saturated ground may be as big a story as wind there

NHC Tweet: "@JoeBastardi LoL how are things working out at accu... oops our bad.. Let the pros handle this one JB"

In other news.. all of the SFL stations are calling this one off.. a tad too soon IMO.. the reason is in my signature

[summersquall]

i have no clue where the center is

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ft.html
I'm looking at the Funktop infrared loop and I would guess around where the hot towers are firing. It also corresponds with the forecast points.

(I'm far from an expert, merely an enthusiast so I am frequently wrong.)

[smw1981]

You are hilarious Jevo..thanks for making people smile at a potentially "not so smiley" time..

[UpTheCreek]

New Joe Bastardi Tweet

TPC continues to shift to my track, intensity. Will have to shift more to ne as this is a major hit NC then nne to New England

Storm should be 3 or 4 on NC coast, 1 or 2 for New England. Heavy rains on saturated ground may be as big a story as wind there

NHC Tweet: "@JoeBastardi LoL how are things working out at accu... oops our bad.. Let the pros handle this one JB"

In other news.. all of the SFL stations are calling this one off.. a tad too soon IMO.. the reason is in my signature

Well, in his defense, he knows way more than you or I.

[SouthFLTropics]

After looking at it on radar and on visible it appears that the short term motion is closer to 270 or 275. We'll have to watch and see if this is a trend but if so then we could see a landfall on the North coast of Hispaniola. I would expect that to disrupt it and potentially send it further West in the short term although the long term think may remain unchanged.

SFT

[eastcoastFL]

i have no clue where the center is

thank you. helps. Still tough to determine which way its moving.