Ivan Advisories

[yoda]

Yeah, it shifted little... but the rest of the models on there now take it off the EC of Florida and up to the Carolinas in IMO... so we MAY, MAY see a shift eastward in the track at 5 PM.

[calidoug]

Draining sure is the word. I was on South Beach last night

A little C-Floor action?

[-=-]

If i'm not mistaken the FSU model takes into account the errors the other model have and makes corrections on them giving one final model (which is has proven very accurate.)

The only way I know to see it is to go to the fourth floor of the LOV building . I look at it twice a week when my met classes are in. It predicted Frances and Charley fairly well, and that was when the hurricane was still a good week away from landfall.

[soonertwister]

Another part of the problem is that crime is very high in Jamaica, along with much poverty. People have an ingrained distrust in their own government, and they are afraid to evacuate because they are afraid they will be looted after the storm. They've all heard a million stories about people who went to shelters, only to return home to nothing.

Trying to convince them that they won't have anything left to loot after the storm is fruitless. Trying to convince them that they won't be left after the storm might work better.

I'd better over 95% of the people couldn't identify a public shelter in their own communities, so imagine what it must be like in a poverty-stricken, crime-ridden, clannish and superstitious community like Jamaica's.

Yesterday I warned that this had the earmarks of of terrible disaster and some seemed to doubt that to be the case. Denial is a very good excuse for those who are still living when Ivan is gone.

From visiting Jamaican community message boards and also from reading what the local emergency people were saying, a great many people are going to doomed by their own complacency, paranoia, or ignorance.

Even at 10 a.m. this morning Jamaica time many people had not started to prepare for this storm. The concept of many was that preparation was going to the grocery store to buy a bag or two of groceries. Most believed that Ivan was going elsewhere, and that they would just get a few hours of fairly big winds.

The difference between "fairly big winds" and wind gusts to 175 miles per hour will be readily apparent to everyone within the next few hours.

[mel38]

i can't even think right. have had no power since sat 9am. we are all exausted. ivan needs to go away now

[dhweather]

The FSU ensemble is better protected than top secret data at Los Alamos Labs.

[Josephine96]

If the models take it off the east coast.. then maybe that's where it'll go..

Shooting across the state and off the east coast..

[Hurricane Cheese]

Looking at that shear map, what is the NHC seeing where they expect Ivan to be weakened by the shear?


Are they refering to when he may be move up the coast towards Tampa or the panhandle?

[Praxus]

Wow...just read this..http://www.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/0 ... index.html

...500,000 people were ordered evacuated. As of this morning, shelters held only 300 people ! Sure most people would go to relatives etc; but still...

Also - the 'shelters' are schools and churches. Would you ride out a cat 4 or 5 storm in a caribbean country church ? I sure as heck wouldn't.

soonertwister - excellent post btw

[Varanidae]

it is more reliable than the other models? thats pretty scary. i was just beginning to think we may be out of the hot water here. i just heard home depot is out of wood.... maybe i should have bought some.

[cycloneye]

http://weather.net-waves.com/td09.php

The grafic updated the latest GFDL run that goes all the way up to Georgia.Weatherboy my apology to you about the updated run that now yes it is there.

[-=-]

It's not that it is more reliable, it is just a better prediction.

If model A tends to show hurricanes moving to far to the right on a consistent basis, the FSU model will take that into account and adjust it's its prediction based on the corrected path from model A. Repeat for the major models and you have the FSU model. Not more reliable, just a better prediction.

[yoda]

OK, I see it now... but now the GFDL is the real outlier on THAT MAP. I forsee a shift east SOME in the 5 PM advisory.

[Stormcenter]

I don't. Nothing good ever comes out of FSU.

(Sorry, just getting psyched up for tonight's game!)

I know this is off topic but that should be GREAT game.

[Dean4Storms]

The ETA also trends toward the Panhandle. Here is the 72 hr. position.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[Praxus]

Eye seems pretty distinct now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

[alicia-w]

There was a post regarding the "FSU Superensemble" a few days ago that categorized it as a superlative model with an impeccable track history. Well bully for them. (But really, I mean, great job guys.) But it bites for us. I am ready and anxious to see how the dogs do in the backseat of my Lexus.

[PurdueWx80]

The eye is clear again, but the convection is severely disrupted in the NW quad. There will be little to no strengthening until a more symmetric shape takes place.

[yoda]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html

[Josephine96]

Is it just me or does the pressure just keep rising?