ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Me a few days ago: “If Elsa threads the gap between the Greater Antilles and delays its landfall, like the HWRF suggests, then it could get close to its intensity estimate”

Well, it did thread the gap…

Seems that there would’ve had to been a vertically stacked storm by the time it neared Haiti and Jamaica in order for it to have RI’ed like the HWRF was adamant about for so long. While Elsa still would’ve been impacted by the shear that has kept it tilted for days, a better stacked storm could’ve resisted it for longer, although I’m guessing it still might’ve eventually lost the battle before landfall in Cuba.

[kevin]

Elsa really high pressure. wonder if it set a record for highest pressure for a 50knot Ts

Here are a few more cases I could find. As far as I could see there are no tropical storms with a central pressure of 1007 mbar or higher that ever reached an intensity of 50 kts, at least in the satellite era. So indeed that would make Elsa the recordholder. Even though of course I might've missed a potential recordbreaker since I only looked at the peak presurre & wind speed combination in the database I used. So below I also added a picture for the archive since this probably isn't a pressure & wind speed combination we'll see again anytime soon.
*Debby (1994) - 1006 mbar - 60 kt
*Arlene (1999) - 1006 mbar - 50 kt
*Danny (2009) - 1006 mbar - 50 kt
*Colin (2010) - 1005 mbar - 50 kt

Perhaps even more incredible is Subtropical Storm Three which was a 40 kt storm with a pressure of 1011 mbar!
Or perhaps TD5 in 1986 with a pressure of 1016 mbar. That's the highest pressure I could find.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro has 991mb pressure in N Gulf that should be a Cat 3 with this storm

[eastcoastFL]

Me a few days ago: “If Elsa threads the gap between the Greater Antilles and delays its landfall, like the HWRF suggests, then it could get close to its intensity estimate”

Well, it did thread the gap…

Seems that there would’ve had to been a vertically stacked storm by the time it neared Haiti and Jamaica in order for it to have RI’ed like the HWRF was adamant about for so long. While Elsa still would’ve been impacted by the shear that has kept it tilted for days, a better stacked storm could’ve resisted it for longer, although I’m guessing it still might’ve eventually lost the battle before landfall in Cuba.

Yah that crazy forward speed made it pretty hard to get stacked

[eastcoastFL]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... ean/974399

Elsa kills 3, leaves trail of destruction in the Caribbean

[Nimbus]

Made landfall in Cuba just in time, convection was on the increase and shear was fairly light.
Hopefully shear from the upper level low to the west will keep her moving forward and keep the rainfall totals for the west coast of Florida in check. Forward motion increases the wind speeds though.

[eastcoastFL]

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLLIER...MAINLAND
MONROE AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

* At 142 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles
southwest of Mahogany Hammock to 7 miles south of Royal Palm Ranger
to near Route 1/card Sound to 19 miles southeast of Route 1/card
Sound Road Split. Movement was northwest at 40 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with these
storms.

* Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Miami Beach, Homestead, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne,
South Miami, Chokoloskee, Homestead Miami Speedway, Black Point,
Homestead General Airport, Flamingo, The Redland, Turkey Point,
Virginia Key, Everglades City, Kendall, Doral, Hialeah Gardens and

[cane5]

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLLIER...MAINLAND
MONROE AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

* At 142 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles
southwest of Mahogany Hammock to 7 miles south of Royal Palm Ranger
to near Route 1/card Sound to 19 miles southeast of Route 1/card
Sound Road Split. Movement was northwest at 40 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with these
storms.

Thanks for the update

* Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Miami Beach, Homestead, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne,
South Miami, Chokoloskee, Homestead Miami Speedway, Black Point,
Homestead General Airport, Flamingo, The Redland, Turkey Point,
Virginia Key, Everglades City, Kendall, Doral, Hialeah Gardens and

[tolakram]

Me a few days ago: “If Elsa threads the gap between the Greater Antilles and delays its landfall, like the HWRF suggests, then it could get close to its intensity estimate”

Well, it did thread the gap…

Seems that there would’ve had to been a vertically stacked storm by the time it neared Haiti and Jamaica in order for it to have RI’ed like the HWRF was adamant about for so long. While Elsa still would’ve been impacted by the shear that has kept it tilted for days, a better stacked storm could’ve resisted it for longer, although I’m guessing it still might’ve eventually lost the battle before landfall in Cuba.

I posted the 12Z euro run in the model thread. Suddenly down to 985 offshore, 991 at landfall. Hopefully this trend does not continue.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Tampa's location is also somewhat fortuitious as it requires a very specific angle for a storm, let alone major, to strike. Unlike other major cities like Miami, New Orleans, or Charleston, which are vulnerable to northward or westward moving storms (which is generally the direction you see Atlantic storms travel), a storm must be traveling hard east to actually hit Tampa and be pulled in that manner by a trough at just the right time so it does not end up too far south (like Punta Gorda/Ft Meyers) or too far north (like the Big Bend region). Now of course this unfortunately does not mean it will never be possible (and hopefully it does not happen anytime soon since that would be very catastrophic), but imho a major hurricane has the best chance of hitting Tampa if it takes an Ivan/Michael-like route where it passes through the Yucutan Channel and then curves eastward.

Not trying to be off topic, but Tampa, Corpus Christi, and Jacksonville are the luckiest cities when it comes to the Atlantic/Gulf Hurricanes

[Category5Kaiju]

Euro has 991mb pressure in N Gulf that should be a Cat 3 with this storm

A Cat 3 with 991 mbar pressure? Have I heard of something like that before hmmm...

*it's a joke, I know what you mean haha

[Sanibel]

Blustery rain squall here...Pounding my window...

[cycloneye]

Watch for tornadoes in Central Florida.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1412114738960551938

[abajan]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/elsa-kills-3-leaves-trail-of-destruction-in-the-caribbean/974399

Elsa kills 3, leaves trail of destruction in the Caribbean

The article is a bit inaccurate, though. The last hurricane to hit Barbados was actually Allen in 1980. To the best of my knowledge, we got sustained hurricane force winds as its eye passed north. I happened to be in Ohio at the time, but from all accounts the island experienced such winds. Funny thing is, many Barbadians themselves also believe Janet was the last hurricane to hit here. I think the confusion may be due to only northern areas of the island getting sustained hurricane force winds. Not sure.

[Chemmers]

I bet this Elsa will intensify over Cuba, seem like anything is possible with this storm

[Category5Kaiju]

I can't wait till I am done tracking this headache of a storm While there were storms that were actually thrilling and fun to track (Dorian, Hanna, Laura, Eta, etc. as examples) there were those that simply hurt my head (Isaias and Elsa being the worst that come to mind).

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/ZachCoveyTV/status/1412051654954860545

[Recurve]

Checking in after long holiday weekend.
Sunny and nearly calm in St. Petersburg now.

Even with the ridiculously high pressure and forecast shear, Elsa appears to be a large storm and the Tampa area will no doubt be on the right (wrong) side, even with the max track error.

I always want to remind people who aren't very experienced that tropical storms can be more damaging in some ways than hurricanes. Wind is not usually a factor, but T storms can bring intense rain for long periods. Plus, the real threat of tornadoes and waterspouts. The worst damage I've personally experienced in many years in Florida was from tropical storms. A tornado from Mitch (after it had weakened to a tropical storm) tore through the Upper Keys. Irene as a Cat 1 in 1999 in South Florida rained 10-20 inches, and caught many off guard. Heavily saturated ground can lead to more trees falling. Just a reminder not to freak out but not to be foolish either with a tropical storm. Good luck to everyone in Florida

[caneman]

Tampa's location is also somewhat fortuitious as it requires a very specific angle for a storm, let alone major, to strike. Unlike other major cities like Miami, New Orleans, or Charleston, which are vulnerable to northward or westward moving storms (which is generally the direction you see Atlantic storms travel), a storm must be traveling hard east to actually hit Tampa and be pulled in that manner by a trough at just the right time so it does not end up too far south (like Punta Gorda/Ft Meyers) or too far north (like the Big Bend region). Now of course this unfortunately does not mean it will never be possible (and hopefully it does not happen anytime soon since that would be very catastrophic), but imho a major hurricane has the best chance of hitting Tampa if it takes an Ivan/Michael-like route where it passes through the Yucutan Channel and then curves eastward.

Not trying to be off topic, but Tampa, Corpus Christi, and Jacksonville are the luckiest cities when it comes to the Atlantic/Gulf Hurricanes

I wouldnt classify Tampa as lucky. For majors yes but I've dealt with many other storms here in Pinellas. Debby, Elena, Irma, Frances, Jeanne and too many others to list. We are actually one the top are for tropical system strikes per Hurricane City website

[toad strangler]

For ACE fans. I'm not one of them overall but it's cool disco on individual storms.

 http://twitter.com/SteveBowenWx/status/1412083490405982209