Florida Weather

[Extremeweatherguy]

The freeze warnings for tonight were canceled, but there are still freeze watches up for tomorrow night in parts of Lake and Volusia counties. As I said in my previous post, cloud cover and winds will be the thing to watch. If the clouds can clear tomorrow night and if winds can lighten up, then the potential for a frost/freeze will be higher, whereas if the clouds/winds stick around, then it will be hard to get much below 38-40F.

Hopefully by tomorrow afternoon we will have a better idea of what to expect in Tampa and Orlando and the surrounding communities.

[jdray]

Amazing what a difference Florida has between North/Central/South/Peninsula.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
203 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009

...HARD FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS TONIGHT...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...VERY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED THIS
AFTN WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S. COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF AREA
AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING AND S OF THE CWA
BY MORNING. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY INTO THE TEENS IN
SE GA AND 20S NE FL TONIGHT. A VERY COLD HIGH (1047MB) NEAR NE/IA
BORDER WILL CONTINUE DIVING SEWD WITH SETTING UP A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH RESULTING IN WINDS OF 10
TO 15 MPH SWEEPING OVER THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH FREEZING TEMPS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE MID
TEENS IN SE GA AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S NE FL. THUS A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IS REQUIRED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS BLANKETING
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH ALONG WITH THE FRONT. SHOULD
THESE CLOUDS BE SLOWER TO EXIT THEN MIN TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
LOW AS ANTICIPATED. ATTM EXPECT HARD FREEZE SE GA AND SUWANNEE
VALLEY NE FL WITH FRZ WARNING ELSEWHERE. MINS ABOVE FRZG ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR COAST SOUTH OF PONTE VEDRA. MAX TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE
IN MID 40S N TO MID 50S S.

THE COLD HIGH WILL TRACK N OF AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS FRI NIGHT. THUS NO WIND CHILL ADV WILL BE
NEEDED ALTHOUGH COLDEST TEMPS FOR THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK ARE
EXPECTED EARLY SAT MORNING. THUS A HARD FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER. FREEZING TEMPS AT THE
BEACHES DEPENDS ON WHETHER WINDS DEVELOP A SLIGHT NE COMPONENT.
FREEZING TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD.
A TEMPORARY WARMUP (MID 50S N TO LOW 60S S) WILL BE FELT SUNDAY
DUE TO SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
MOISTURE TO BE WRUNG OUT OF FRONT BEFORE IT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA
AND WILL GO WITH 20% POPS SUNDAY AFTN THRU THE NIGHT AS FRONT
MOVES THRU THE REGION. MINS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 30S.

Woohoo! 60F, I can break out the shorts.

[jinftl]

Dew points on the rise again across the central peninsula this evening...factor in the cirrus clouddeck still over the peninsula...35-40 across central interior, 40-45 on central coast seems like most likely low temps...lows 45-50 sw coast and 50-55 inland se florida, 55-60 se coast.

Dew points have fallen into the middle 20s across the Orlando metro area this afternoon:

Orlando Executive Airport - 24F dew point
Orlando International Airport - 26F dew point
Orlando/Sanford Airport - 25F dewpoint

These dew point temperatures are running about 4-7 degrees lower than forecast.

[HURAKAN]

51ºF is the Dew Point in my house. It got down to 39ºF at 3:45 AM.

[jinftl]

Temps around the state at 11pm est....with the change in temp from 11pm est wednesday in ( ). As you can see, some spots in north florida are 10-15 deg warmer than this time last night.

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
1100 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009

PENSACOLA NAS 41 (+5)
CRESTVIEW 38 (+7)
PANAMA CITY 44 (+3)
APALACHICOLA 47 (+11)
TALLAHASSEE 45 (+15)
GAINESVILLE 44 (+6)
JACKSONVILLE 45 (+12)
OCALA 43 (+4)
ORLANDO INTL 47 (-5)
MELBOURNE 53 (+6)
VERO BEACH 54 (+8)
FT PIERCE 56 (+11)
BROOKSVILLE 44 (+1)
TAMPA 50 (+0)
FT MYERS 54 (-2)
KEY WEST INTL 62 (-3)
W PALM BEACH 61 (+5)
FT LAUDERDALE 62 (+1)
MIAMI 62 (+2)

[psyclone]

St Pete Clearwater airport is still 54 as of 11pm. We've got a long way to go to reach those projected lows... unless the thermometer starts plunging fast those lows appear likely to bust just as they did last night.

[gatorcane]

St Pete Clearwater airport is still 54 as of 11pm. We've got a long way to go to reach those projected lows... unless the thermometer starts plunging fast those lows appear likely to bust just as they did last night.

The cloud cover is the reason for the lows not dropping as quickly. But the dewpoints across Western side of Florida including the Tampa Bay area are VERY low right now. Last I checked, I saw generally 34-35F across the Greater Tampa Bay area. Note there is another cold front poised to drop through later tonight. That combined with the fact the overall cloud canopy seems to be breaking up gradually, means lows in the 30s are still possible, maybe the lows need to be nudged up a few degrees or so but it will be downright COLD across Tampa Bay not only tonight but for the next 7 nights it looks like.

It's been a while where most locations in the Tampa Bay area will either be in the 30s or lower 40s for 7 straight nights. Wow.

Forecast for downtown Tampa. Cold for the entire period (note at least 5+ degrees colder in suburbs from downtown)

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... it=0&lg=en

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Still 55*F in the backyard....by the canals connecting to the Bay
Extensive cloud cover, I doubt I'll get below 52*F tonight.

[gatorcane]

Across SE Florida, the weather pattern is markedly different than the rest of the state. In fact light rain is now falling at the major metro locations with temps hovering around 60F....contrast this weather to FAIR and 41F in Ocala right now....may not make it much below 55F for all major hubs with the cloud cover.

W PALM BEACH CLOUDY 61 49 64 N12 30.30S
FT LAUDER-EXEC LGT RAIN 60 50 69 N8 30.30R
FT LAUDERDALE LGT RAIN 62 52 69 N10 30.29R
POMPANO BEACH LGT RAIN 60 53 77 N12 30.30R
PEMBROKE PINES LGT RAIN 59 50 72 N10 30.31S
OPA LOCKA LGT RAIN 59 50 72 N10 30.30R
MIAMI LGT RAIN 60 53 77 VRB6 30.30S
WEST KENDALL LGT RAIN 57 50 77 N10 30.30S
HOMESTEAD MOCLDY 59 52 77 NW10 30.29S

[psyclone]

the dewpoints really aren't that low. Even at Brooksville the dewpoint is still 36.. Hardly impressive in an alleged caa regime in the dead of winter. I'm not a met i'm just going on past observations and it seems as if temps almost always wind up warmer than forecast in these cold snaps. My nws point and click shows a low of 36 and at this jucture I'd be surprised if i get under 40. the latest ob from gainsville just before midnight is 45 with a dewpint of 33!

[jinftl]

Cool/cold night for sure in many places across the state....below freezing still on tap for some in the north...but this is night #2 of temps, although chilly, are not likely to even reach the revised (as in 'revised up') levels in many spots.

The numbers and trends speak for themselves....the latest temps are shown with the 1-hour temp change in ( ). Temps holding fairly steady...some areas are falling 1 to 2 deg from the previous hour, some are up 1 deg. No major reporting station reporting a below freezing temp. Tallahassee, Crestview, and Jacksonville were 32 deg or lower this time last night.

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
1200 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

PENSACOLA 37 (-1)
CRESTVIEW 37 (-1)
TALLAHASSEE 43 (-2)
GAINESVILLE 45 (+1)
JACKSONVILLE 44 (-1)
ORLANDO INTL 48 (+1)
MELBOURNE 52 (-1)
VERO BEACH 54 (+0)
BROOKSVILLE 42 (-2)
CLEARWATER 54 (+0)
TAMPA 50 (+0)
MACDILL AFB 51 (+1)
ST PETERSBURG 54 (+0)
FT MYERS 53 (-1)
KEY WEST INTL 62 (+1)
W PALM BEACH 61 (+0)
FT LAUDERDALE 62 (+0)
MIAMI 60 (+0)

[psyclone]

LOL! From 11pm to 12am the temp at St Pete Clearwater airport remained 54 while the dewpoint actually rose 2 degrees to 41. Tampa's thermometer is stuck at 50. I think the lows will end up at least 5 to 8 degrees above the forecast values in my neck of the woods as they were the prior night.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Still 54*F at Albert Whitted Airport in Saint Petersburg...Dew Point UP to 42*F.

[jinftl]

NWS Tallahassee recent update assures us the cold is coming....marching through Georgia now...but they continue to increase temps forecast for friday night into the weekend:

IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY TODAY BY DIXIE STANDARDS WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 40S MOST AREAS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCH
UPWARD FOR THE MIN TEMPS FORECAST FOR SAT MORNING WITH 20 DEGREES
BEING A POPULAR NUMBER FOR INLAND AREAS. WE ARE GOING JUST BELOW
GUIDANCE, BUT DID BRING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE HIGH CENTER IS SIMPLY GOING TO BE TOO FAR TO THE NE
FOR US TO REALIZE THE INCREADIBLY COLD TEMPS INDICATED BY THE MODELS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

I imagine the rest of the NWS offices will inch their forecasts up as well....but not sure how NWS Melbourne or NWS Tampa Bay can do much to save face for tonight's busted forecast. Temps have been rising in Orlando (now 50, up from 47 just 2 hours ago) ....while Brooksville has gone up 8 deg since 10pm and is now 46!!!!

NWS Miami revised their forecasts early on Thursday to a low of around 60....and the cold is allegedly hours away from the panhandle and jax area..but no discussion for central florida called for temps steady or rising.

p.s. Tampa Bay Hurricane - Albert Whitted now up to 55 deg

[frankthetank]

Miami increased the temps for the next few days again (GOOD) but i see they have included more clouds in the forecast. My bro in Cancun has had horrible luck now with the past 4 days being cloudy. Hopefully they clear out by Sunday some because my family needs Vitamin D stat

[gatorcane]

the dewpoints really aren't that low. Even at Brooksville the dewpoint is still 36.. Hardly impressive in an alleged caa regime in the dead of winter. I'm not a met i'm just going on past observations and it seems as if temps almost always wind up warmer than forecast in these cold snaps. My nws point and click shows a low of 36 and at this jucture I'd be surprised if i get under 40. the latest ob from gainsville just before midnight is 45 with a dewpint of 33!

Well lets just say I think we can conclude NWS Tampa definitely missed the forecast for last night. The low in Tampa Intl Airport was 47F but the forecast was 35F-37F I believe. Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg got down to 50F. Looking South into SE Florida, againt temps were a good 10F degrees warmer than the forecast from about 2 days ago.

Lows:

West Palm Beach: 58F
Pompano Beach Airpark: 58F
Ft. Lauderdale: 61F
Miami: 59F

Keep in mind just a couple of days ago, the forecast was upper 40s to lower 50s for SE Florida.

Did a cold front even got through?

[frankthetank]

-26F yesterday morning, -25F this morning...

Upper 60's for Key West all next week... Hopefully it gets a little warmer then that. Overnight lows of 60F don't sound bad.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Actually dropped to 49*F briefly this morning with cold air
advection

[jinftl]

Latest NWS Miami forecast....not looking good for finally dropping below 50 deg at the airport...plus now forecasting temps in the mid-70's sunday and monday....up about 3-5 deg from prior forecasts.

NWS Forecast for: Miami FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Miami - South Florida
Last Update: 11:52 am EST Jan 16, 2009

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tonight: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Saturday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 70.
Saturday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
M.L.King Day: A 10 percent chance of showers before 3pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 74.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

[jinftl]

Believe it or not...tonight is the last night of 'extended hard freeze temps' even in Florida's icebox, Crestview....but they are going to do it 'right' and try and make up for the temp busts the last 2 nights by hitting the mid 10's.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=30.968189296794243&lon=-86.45965576171875&site=tae&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en

Laurel Hill Florida's forecast low is 9°F on Friday night.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... it=0&lg=en