ATL: IKE Discussion

[deltadog03]

WXman, Do you think they are just seeing something different, or IMO they are just too fast with the short and mid term speed?? Maybe thats why they get this much further west??

[tolakram]

Can we stop the west talk now.

[cape_escape]

I thought you might want to see the 12Z GFS's view of the surface and 500mb pattern for next Friday. It has quite a ridge over northern Mexico and Texas and a fairly deep trof approaching Ike. That's why the GFS takes Ike N-NE into the FL Panhandle late next week. Clearly, the EC and Canadian see something completely different:

What's your thoughts on this? Do you think Ike would possibley turn NE sooner than the Panhandle if this holds true?
I guess I still have a little Charley mentality in me....sorry.

[KWT]

I agree wxman, if it spends that much time over Cuba, I would say that it's all but over for Ike, and perhaps it could recover into strong storm or minimal hurricane as long as the LLC isn't completely destroyed.... But at the same time, I would hate to see Cuba be the sacrificial lamb, because it would result in many many deaths and damage....

The models show a VERY condusive pattern for strengthening in the gulf of Mexico, sure Ike would be ruined inland but with such warm waters and good conditions I think even if it comes out a TD, I'd still call 2-3 hurricane.

In truth winds were never at category-2, this was always a cat-3 and post season will show that no doubt.

[wxman57]

yes VDM confirms still WSW movement

Careful using VDM's to calculate movement. Ike's center is about 24 miles across. The VDM isn't necessarily taken in the direct center of the eye. They'll jump from one side of the track to the other. You need to look at the long term motion not short-term VDMs for a true heading. See the graphic I made during Gustav:

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Good graphic wxman!

I must say, I want to thank all you professional Mets for joining us here on this site. We have at least 3 of you here right now, offering us your expert opinions, and I for one am very grateful for your attendance!

Thank you !

[tolakram]

New round of intense convection almost wrapped around the eye now.

loop:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[cycloneye]

Good graphic wxman!

I must say, I want to thank all you professional Mets for joining us here on this site. We have at least 3 of you here right now, offering us your expert opinions, and I for one am very grateful for your attendance!

Thank you !

I second that statement 100%.

[BigB0882]

If this one comes to southeast or central LA then I am moving!!!! I don't wish it on anyone but please, someone else take this one!

[KWT]

Yep thats a huge blow up of convection in the eastern quadrants right now. Still heading around 260 though its on a rather wobbly track.

[El Nino]

Outflow in the N'part really good too.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just wanted to stop in and say hi. Finally got power back around noon today. We got pounded pretty good by Gustav around here and have not seen any news about Ike. So if someone can give me a brief summary on the current forecast I would definitely appreciate it.

[wxman57]

WXman, Do you think they are just seeing something different, or IMO they are just too fast with the short and mid term speed?? Maybe thats why they get this much further west??

Here's the 00Z Canadian forecast (same map type) for next Friday morning. Quite a difference! No trof approaching Ike. Instead a ridge there. Ridge over northern Mexico gone. I think the Canadian has a problem in that it develops another hurricane in the wake of Ike (Josephine??). It has a problem developing just about everything into hurricanes, and that may be throwing it way off on Ike's track:

[jlauderdal]

And we have DBW here in Mobile. As good as it gets.

yep, what is he saying

jl not much we do not already know, but he did say it was a little too early to know excactly where Ike would go, but he hinted at landfall possibly being somewhere from SE/LA to the Big Bend.[/quote]

ok. that seems reasonable and he gets credit for even mentioning the gulf when recurve east of florida was on the table

[BigB0882]

If Ike should come into the Gulf and get anywhere near where Gustav went, do you think the waters will have been churned up enough to weaken Ike, or at least keep him from strengthening? I am not sure how long it takes for the waters to settle and warm back up. Or perhaps Gustav moved too fast to really churn the waters up enough to make a difference.

[vaffie]

Interesting point:

NHC raised it's current intensity to 95 knots. SFMR reports over the last 15 minutes are quite a bit stronger even than that however, with readings of 104, 106, 110, 111, and 114. So if that 114 number is correct, it would be a borderline Category 4 hurricane already.

[BigB0882]

Interesting point:

NHC raised it's current intensity to 95 knots. SFMR reports over the last 15 minutes are quite a bit stronger even than that however, with readings of 104, 106, 110, 111, and 114. So if that 114 number is correct, it would be a borderline Category 4 hurricane already.

I have a feeling this will be category 4 very soon, regardless what NHC is officially saying for now.

[wxman57]

I measure a 6-hr movement toward 256 degrees. Tracked 80.9nm - that's a bit over 13 kts.

[Skyhawk]

Good graphic wxman!

I must say, I want to thank all you professional Mets for joining us here on this site. We have at least 3 of you here right now, offering us your expert opinions, and I for one am very grateful for your attendance!

Thank you !

While using VDMs can lead to track error it doesn't mean that they will in any particular case. If the track was WSW and VDMs support WSW there is reason to believe they are accurate. If they supported W then there would be reason to suspect. Let's see what the next VDMs yield.

[wxman57]

Interesting point:

NHC raised it's current intensity to 95 knots. SFMR reports over the last 15 minutes are quite a bit stronger even than that however, with readings of 104, 106, 110, 111, and 114. So if that 114 number is correct, it would be a borderline Category 4 hurricane already.

I have a feeling this will be category 4 very soon, regardless what NHC is officially saying for now.

Don't any of you think it's at least a little strange that many (most?) SFMR observations made over the past few storms are always higher than FL winds? Those SFMR winds you want to believe are 10-15 kts higher than FL winds. I doubt Ike's strongest winds are at the surface, so that questions the SFMR observations. Wouldn't a 102kt FL wind at 700mb typically argue for 90% reduction to 92 kts vs. 114 kts? I think the SFMR instruments are reading too high.