ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[r_u_stuck2]

Here is a link to power outages. https://outagemap.gulfpower.com/external/default.html

[rhwxgeek]

According to WMBB: Current Conditions in PCB, 66 MPH, 28.86 Pressure and Falling

[NDG]

Unfortunate for Panama City, it looks like they will be on the NW eyewall after that more northerly jog the last few minutes.

[davidiowx]

Got roofing or siding flying by on Mark Sudduth's Live video from Mexico Beach!

You have link to that stream?

[dukeblue219]

Arw his winds responding to that presssure drop?

Winds have been rising and pressure falling all day

[RL3AO]

So you are comparing model performance what, 15 years ago, to today? That's the point I'm trying to make.

Look I'm not looking to get in an argument with you. It's my opinion that model intensity to this date is still a crap shoot. And that is pretty factual. As far as track, I believe the NHC is now near 100% at 72 hours out. Last I checked opinions are ok

I'm giving you my opinion. The facts can be looked up in the NHC verification reports. My criticism was about those posters who last night claimed Michael would weaken because they always do. In my opinion that kind of mumbo jumbo non scientific conclusion is very dangerous. There is a reason storms weaken. What is that reason and does it exist today? Do we care to learn anything from past storms?

"Irma and Florence won't hit the US because no storm on record that far north in the eastern Atlantic has before". Same thing.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1050061548406890496

[Rail Dawg]

People in a panic entering garage.

The bell has rung there’s no escape now.

Most people here are saying they thought it wouldn’t be this bad. Many folks in houses still.

They may not make it. Very sad. I’m surround by reinforced concrete.

Tonight will be a rescue/recovery mission.

Bummer.

[supercane4867]

The eyewall is almost coming onshore

[CrazyC83]

The last time there was anything like this on the northern Gulf Coast was Camille. This is probably the best analog to that, even though Camille was much farther west.

[NDG]

87 mph wind gusts in Apalachicola now, areas to the west near MX Beach have to be gusting now into the 100s, IMO.

Conditions at: KAAF observed 10 October 2018 16:26 UTC
Temperature: 26.7°C (80°F)
Dewpoint: missing
Pressure (altimeter): 29.17 inches Hg (987.9 mb)
Winds: from the SSE (160 degrees) at 54 MPH (47 knots; 24.4 m/s)
gusting to 87 MPH (76 knots; 39.5 m/s)
Visibility: 0.25 miles (0.40 km)
Ceiling: 1400 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 600 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 1400 feet AGL
Present Weather: RA (rain)

[KWT]

People in a panic entering garage.

The bell has rung there’s no escape now.

Most people here are saying they thought it wouldn’t be this bad. Many folks in houses still.

They may not make it. Very sad. I’m surround by reinforced concrete.

Tonight will be a rescue/recovery mission.

Bummer.

Devastating to hear that.

Eyewall coming in the next 10-20 mins, then probably 30 mins of 100-120kts winds to come...

Never seen such a good looking hurricane in the gulf on radar making landfall.

[Texas Snowman]

@JackSillin — #Michael's structure on final approach to #FLwx is utterly flawless. This storm is an amazing meteorological feat, and unfortunately also a horrifying human tragedy. This is as bad as it gets for parts of the NW FL coast.

[ObsessedMiami]

First time poster. I appreciate the information as I have been lurking. I live in Blountstown FL which is going to be just east of the eye wall.

Please let me say again, thanks for the information.

If there is a positive here, most of Michael's center path, once it leaves beach, will be the Apalachicola River and Apalachicola National Forest which is sparsely populated.

Brother, my family has lived forever in Bristol. We are thinking of all of you, God bless and be safe!

[xironman]

People in a panic entering garage.

The bell has rung there’s no escape now.

Most people here are saying they thought it wouldn’t be this bad. Many folks in houses still.

They may not make it. Very sad. I’m surround by reinforced concrete.

Tonight will be a rescue/recovery mission.

Bummer.

At least they are going into the garage. Keep the truck safe, you are going to need it.

[rhwxgeek]

People in a panic entering garage.

The bell has rung there’s no escape now.

Most people here are saying they thought it wouldn’t be this bad. Many folks in houses still.

They may not make it. Very sad. I’m surround by reinforced concrete.

Tonight will be a rescue/recovery mission.

Bummer.

I was shocked watching some of the storm chasers earlier this AM when they were still driving around, how many cars were in driveways still and how many homes were not boarded up. I know some of these homes have storm windows but even those are going to have issues in 130 plus winds.

[KWT]

The last time there was anything like this on the northern Gulf Coast was Camille. This is probably the best analog to that, even though Camille was much farther west.

This is basically the Gulfs Andrew, very similar presentation, strengthening into landfall and pretty similar pressure.

[dukeblue219]

@JackSillin — #Michael's structure on final approach to #FLwx is utterly flawless. This storm is an amazing meteorological feat, and unfortunately also a horrifying human tragedy. This is as bad as it gets for parts of the NW FL coast.

That eyewall is unbelievable on the IR. This is like Katrina without it falling apart (so to speak) nearing land. Camille probably is the best analog, just a smidge weaker and wider.

[TexWx]

Anyone hearing any reports of surge.

[Buck]

The satellite presentation is INSANE right now. I can't believe that Michael is third only to Camille and Labor Day 'Cane in terms of pressure at landfall. Andrew and Katrina bow down.

Side note: My father's name is Michael and my niece's name is Camille. So basically if anyone in my family's name is on a future storm list, I'll forewarn everyone.