ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Now that looks like a hurricane.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The really terrible thing is a forecast for prolonged major hurricane conditions in the Vero Beach-WPB area from monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon...with the western eyewall likely to come in overnight, which I absolutely hate these storms coming in full force at night. Your mind goes all over the place hearing things smash outside against the walls with limbs cracking. Its horrible and I highly recommend someone in an evacuation zone to get out before the storm. Ask anyone who stayed during a major and they almost all say never again.

Yep never. My own personal limit ( my place at the coast is not on barrier island) is CAT1 - maybe depending on the storm- surge, etc. Fran came in at night and was "only" cat 2, because of weakening a tad just before landfall. Much concern for you FL folks. If it was me, and anywhere near a CAT 3 I'd be taking photos for insurance and doing preps and leaving town. Dorian will bring a lot of discomfort and havoc on the current forecast and we're approaching the point where we have enough definitive info to make any decisions you were putting off. If I was in the red zone now on these probabilities i.e. 72 hours out I would not want that stress.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/145103.shtml?tswind120#contents

[Rail Dawg]

Guys listen I was in the eyewall for Michael. 185mph gusts.

Video and words DO NOT convey just how bad that is. I stood there and was absolutely amazed that the wind could move that fast and be that loud.

Do NOT stay.

There is something I call the “Fists of God”. They are why some houses remain standing and the ones next door are destroyed. I’ve seen and heard them in Irma and Michael.

You will hear what sounds like an F-18 flying fast overhead at a thousand feet. Count 10 seconds and this “fist” of rain and wind about the size of a house lowers out of the sky and smashes whatever is in it’s path.

Those fists are your maximum gusts and it’s difficult to convey in words their fury.

They are horizontal tornadoes and they are deadly.

Only seen these in Cat 4 and 5.

[Dean4Storms]

What a nightmare scenario unfolding and don’t know if anyone has touched on this. The extra out of State utility crews, etc... for after the storm are likely to have to stay back in either GA, AL or possibly the FL Panhandle meaning it taking much longer to reach people of central and south FL with attempts to restore power. That track straight up the State is going to mean possibly many weeks without power for some, especially out lying areas.

[Blinhart]

I think the ridge to the North has caused Dorian to hit the proverbial brick wall and will have to turn W to WNW. At least that's what the way he looks.

[Cypresso]

What a nightmare scenario unfolding and don’t know if anyone has touched on this. The extra out of State utility crews, etc... for after the storm are likely to have to stay back in either GA, AL or possibly the FL Panhandle meaning it taking much longer to reach people of central and south FL with attempts to restore power. That track straight up the State is going to mean possibly many weeks without power for some, especially out lying areas.

You speak of a major concern, and I agree. Your comment made me go and check on Texas crews heading that way, and there are some already in route from Texas. I could not locate any news on the staging area they may go to, however.

[Sanibel]

Costco Ft Myers Cypress Lake Road has gas...Some lines, expecting two more tankers today...

[TallyTracker]

What a nightmare scenario unfolding and don’t know if anyone has touched on this. The extra out of State utility crews, etc... for after the storm are likely to have to stay back in either GA, AL or possibly the FL Panhandle meaning it taking much longer to reach people of central and south FL with attempts to restore power. That track straight up the State is going to mean possibly many weeks without power for some, especially out lying areas.

You speak of a major concern, and I agree. Your comment made me go and check on Texas crews heading that way, and there are some already in route from Texas. I could not locate any news on the staging area they may go to, however.

Not to mention that with such a prolonged storm event, the out-of-state power crews can’t even begin to fix the grid until the storm has moved north of the peninsula entirely allowing them to travel to the hit areas. Some places could lose power for weeks. I know Panama City was largely without power for a month after Michael and that was with better access and staging locations for power crews.

[weathaguyry]

University of Miami has cancelled classes from today until at least Tuesday so all the students can prepare. Flying my sister home out of MIA tonight along with some family that live in a trailer in Davie, don’t want to take any chances with a storm like Dorian.

[AtlanticWind]

Could be getting fooled but Dorian appears to be turning a little north of west already

[got ants?]

What a nightmare scenario unfolding and don’t know if anyone has touched on this. The extra out of State utility crews, etc... for after the storm are likely to have to stay back in either GA, AL or possibly the FL Panhandle meaning it taking much longer to reach people of central and south FL with attempts to restore power. That track straight up the State is going to mean possibly many weeks without power for some, especially out lying areas.

They are more than likely moving assets south as we speak, to either Broward or Miami Dade counties

[StPeteMike]

The ridge is killing me! I thought by now we would have a general agreement with landfall position but we have gone from Miami to Cape and a sharper north turn than previously.

I’ll wait until this evening to start placing my eggs into any baskets.

[Frank P]

Could be getting fooled but Dorian appears to be turning a little north of west already

Kinda looks like that to me looking at the sat loops, but will have to see what recon says!

[AxaltaRacing24]

The ridge is killing me! I thought by now we would have a general agreement with landfall position but we have gone from Miami to Cape and a sharper north turn than previously.

I’ll wait until this evening to start placing my eggs into any baskets.

Even Irma’s path shifted to the west coast just under 3 days before landfall. Nothing is set in stone yet at all. We generally know where it’ll go, but it’s too soon to pinpoint exact towns and county’s.

[GCANE]

Watching this monster ramp up and looking at the forecast track, only one word:
Devastating.

[Mouton]

12Z GFS running now. Looking like it lands around 28.2N 80.5W around 955mb at Noon on Tuesday. Moving slowly toward NW. 24 hrs later about 50 West (30.4 81.7) of Jacksonville Downtown as a 988mb storm. Cat 1? Similar to Francis perhaps. HWRF recent run a tad faster but close to same track.

[Blown Away]

Climatology favors something away from Florida... Maybe a trend...

[MGC]

Look for slow steady intensification for Hurricane Dorian. Once it becomes a major hurricane, watch for EWRC. Could have a couple before landfall. Wind field will likely expand with each EWRC so expect an expansive area of hurricane force winds north of Dorian's eye. If you are on the barrier islands get out. Could possibly see the islands get completely over washed. Run from the water. If you live in a high rise condo on the beach your windows are likely going to get blown out. Make sure you have enough supplies to last a week. After Katrina I didn't have electricity for 3+ week, no natural gas or water for months, all the trees that got uprooted destroyed the water and gas lines. Dorian looks on the NHC track. Hope it recurves and goes OTS......MGC

[Do_For_Love]

Amazing visual of the intensification of Dorian this morning from the Hi-Res IR: https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1167460291430486016

No question that this thing is ramping up.

[TheStormExpert]

The ridge is killing me! I thought by now we would have a general agreement with landfall position but we have gone from Miami to Cape and a sharper north turn than previously.

I’ll wait until this evening to start placing my eggs into any baskets.

Even Irma’s path shifted to the west coast just under 3 days before landfall. Nothing is set in stone yet at all. We generally know where it’ll go, but it’s too soon to pinpoint exact towns and county’s.

Or it may just miss us all to the east, who knows!