ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Anybody care to translate this into English?

For the center sections of the US, are we talking warmer, cooler, wetter, drier .... ?

What other effects are being suggested? Lists of previous dates don't really mean much as most people don't remember specific weather by year.

El Nino summers and winters tends to be wetter and colder than average for the eastern half of the US as well as the southwest. The northern 1/3rd to half tends to be dry and mild. The past 2 years in a large scale have featured very little extreme events (storms). If we start to see El Nino (especially the bigger ones) likely flooding and bigger storms will mean more significant impact events.

California is in a deep drought... Do you think El-Nino could at least enhance a wetter weather pattern this winter for at least Southern California?

[Kingarabian]

SOI continues to drop.

[WeatherGuesser]

I'm sure the middle of the country could use a mild, damp Summer, but definitely not the storms.

[Ntxw]

California is in a deep drought... Do you think El-Nino could at least enhance a wetter weather pattern this winter for at least Southern California?

Would be, that's probably what California is hoping for, the bigger the Nino the better especially SoCal.

[cycloneye]

The Febuary Eurosip update has El Nino coming by early Summer but I think is too fast the time. IMO,by late Summer or during the fall is when El Nino may develop.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Not good for us. We get typhoons and we have a droughts during El Nino.

[dexterlabio]

^Something I noticed during El Nino and its effects in SE Asia is that tropical activity increases by summer, then all tropical moisture gets sucked out beginning winter until spring. Philippines, particularly Luzon, received above average monthly rainfall in the later part of 2009 but severe drought ensued from December until June.

[cycloneye]

The big question is when and how strong El Nino may be if it develops.Here is a good graphic of the past strongest El Nino events since 1950.

[euro6208]

Not good for us. We get typhoons and we have a droughts during El Nino.

Guam is very unlucky during el nino years WPAC on a rampage...

[cycloneye]

Here is a good graphic for those members who may want to know how the weather in North America is affected by an El Nino event.

[CaliforniaResident]

Bring it on, the bigger the better!

California rarely gets any real "weather," even during a normal year. A quarter of an inch of rain falling over the span of 4 hours is literally a headline news.........STORMWATCH LA.....During this drought, we've haven't been getting our usual so called "storms" (a normal winter has about 5 or 6 "rainy" days a month, usually anywhere from a quarter of an inch up to an inch per "storm" in LA." It rained once in November, sprinkled once in December, no rain in January, and only once in February, all during the so-called "rainy season." (LA gets all its piddly 10-15 inches of rainfall from November through April and literally nothing from June through September).

El Nino years mean the rare chance of tropical moisture hitting the Southern California coast in late summer or early fall (LA can't get a direct hit from a hurricane but maybe some remains from dying hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific). It means the next winter is going to be very wet by LA standards. It might mean that Angelenos might finally get to experience a true thunderstorm and I get to watch grown 6 foot men climb under the table and scream like little girls when they hear a thunderclap! (thunder is very rare in LA).

As a weather enthusiast trapped in LA for the time being, I miss real weather. I will be here until summer of 2015 while my girlfriend finishes her masters at UCLA and then we plan to head to the Dallas are afterwards.

[cycloneye]

Bring it on, the bigger the better!

California rarely gets any real "weather," even during a normal year. A quarter of an inch of rain falling over the span of 4 hours is literally a headline news.........STORMWATCH LA.....During this drought, we've haven't been getting our usual so called "storms" (a normal winter has about 5 or 6 "rainy" days a month, usually anywhere from a quarter of an inch up to an inch per "storm" in LA." It rained once in November, sprinkled once in December, no rain in January, and only once in February, all during the so-called "rainy season." (LA gets all its piddly 10-15 inches of rainfall from November through April and literally nothing from June through September).

El Nino years mean the rare chance of tropical moisture hitting the Southern California coast in late summer or early fall (LA can't get a direct hit from a hurricane but maybe some remains from dying hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific). It means the next winter is going to be very wet by LA standards. It might mean that Angelenos might finally get to experience a true thunderstorm and I get to watch grown 6 foot men climb under the table and scream like little girls when they hear a thunderclap! (thunder is very rare in LA).

As a weather enthusiast trapped in LA for the time being, I miss real weather. I will be here until summer of 2015 while my girlfriend finishes her masters at UCLA and then we plan to head to the Dallas are afterwards.

Welcome to Storm2k. Any questions you may have go ahead as we don't bite.

[WeatherGuesser]

The big question is when and how strong El Nino may be if it develops.Here is a good graphic of the past strongest El Nino events since 1950.

[img]ElNino2009-10_Top5strongest.jpg /img]

That would be more informational if it included a couple of more columns showing average temperatures and precipitation for those years and the departures from normal.

[cycloneye]

Here is the updated graphic that shows the big warm subsurface pool moving eastward and beginning to creep towards the surface.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like for Mondays update we will see the same or little change towards Nino 3.4.

[cycloneye]

Looks like for Mondays update we will see the same or little change towards Nino 3.4.

Yes. No effects yet from that warm pool beneath.

[Ntxw]

We probably won't see its effects until March or April. Currently there are intraseasonal changes going on as the seasons change and reconfig sst averages. This is why models perform with low skill in early Spring on ENSO. The fact that the Mjo continues to hang around in the Pacific only helps to keep momentum going after the transition.

[Kingarabian]

We probably won't see its effects until March or April. Currently there are intraseasonal changes going on as the seasons change and reconfig sst averages. This is why models perform with low skill in early Spring on ENSO. The fact that the Mjo continues to hang around in the Pacific only helps to keep momentum going after the transition.

Aha.

Well if we have to wait till March/April to see the effects, in the meantime what else do we watch for? Can the sub-surface pool lose its luster or can it main or get bigger? More Kelvin Waves? West Winds?

And comparing this time and past El-Nino events, are there missing variables that we have yet to see? Or is everything there and we're just waiting for the SST's to rise?

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI continues to go down. The peak was +14.5 on Febuary 8 to the last data at +2.7 on the 22nd.

[Ntxw]

January saw a +PDO reading. Looking at SST's the eastern half of the Pacific looks to continue it's warming trend in Feb eyeballing it(+PDO is warm east cool west.) Much cooler waters in SE Asia and eastern Australia shows the continuing shift of the PDO at least short term. One area to watch will be the coast of Mexico and western US. If they heat up, the greater the chances the PDO will support a good Nino