CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Ed Mahmoud]

7.9 earthquake in El Peru, tsunami warning for Hawai'i

I know it's important info, but it's massively off topic in this thread. And also: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/messages/h ... 235448.txt

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

OK. I was watching A&B on TWC, and that is what they said. I trusted TWC. Ooops.

[Sanibel]

Either stair-stepping or now solid under the ridge. If stair-stepping will pull NW again next jog. Solid means GFS more in line.

[Evil Jeremy]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


EJ’s Forecasts
TS Dean
Advisory 5
8:30PMEDT

As Tropical Storm Dean continues to strengthen as it races across the Atlantic Ocean, I have been prompted to recommend Hurricane and Tropical Storm watches for parts of the Antilles in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. The watches I recommended can be seen on my updated forecast cone. Remember, these watches are completely unofficial, and they are my recommendation for the National Hurricane Center’s 11:00PMEDT advisory on Tropical Storm Dean.

As for Dean itself, cold cloud tops are starting to form around the center, and a distinct banding feature, also including very cold cloud tops, is trailing on the storm’s eastern side. Dean is showing sign’s of intensification, so, even though it is not in the latest model run, I am upgrading Tropical Storm Dean’s sustained maximum wind to 70 MPH, with a pressure of 992 MB.

Tropical Storm Dean will likely become a hurricane tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Dean is continuing a general westward motion for the past few days, but earlier today, there was a wobble to the WNW that lasted for a few hours, that brought Dean up to 13N at least 12 hours before it was supposed to. Tropical Storm Dean continue on a general West to WNW track through the next 72 Hours before turning more NW.

Dean is currently heading west at about 21 MPH. Dean has been gradually slowing down and speeding back up over the past day or so, but a gradual process of slowing down should continue through the next couple days.

The computer models tonight are in more agreement than they were earlier today and yesterday. They now take Dean into the Caribbean, and moving south of the Islands, and into either the Gulf of Mexico or into the Yucatan Peninsula. Right now, both of the scenarios might now happen. Until we get data from the Gulfstream IV flight tomorrow, none of the computer models can be completely reliable.

The center of Tropical Storm Dean is pinpointed at 13.1N and 47.9W.

Interests along the Caribbean, as well as the SE USA and the GOM should closely monitor this system.

INITIAL 70 MPH
12HR 75 MPH
24HR 80 MPH
48HR 90 MPH
72HR 100 MPH
96HR 115 MPH
120HR 130-135 MPH

[weatherguru18]

For the first time this evening the chief (Frank Billingsley) put Dean in our 7 day as a possibility.

http://www.click2houston.com/wxmap/710318/detail.html

[Brent]

7.9 earthquake in El Peru, tsunami warning for Hawai'i

I know it's important info, but it's massively off topic in this thread. And also: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/messages/h ... 235448.txt

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

OK. I was watching A&B on TWC, and that is what they said. I trusted TWC. Ooops.

Big mistake!

[RL3AO]

I know its off topic but Hawaii is NOT UNDER A TUSNAMI WARNING. It is under an advisory. Parts of the South American coast is under a warning.

[artist]

all I have ever herad about the clip is not to use it.

[Derek Ortt]

ADT numbers just dropped, not sure why

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt04L.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

Anyone ever see a TC travel an average of 20 MPH from Africa to TX...Me Neither..My bet is on this slowing to 10-13 in the W Carribean..

[Andrew92]

Back to the topic, guys.

Dean is really setting itself up to intensify nicely before entering the Caribbean. I just hope the islands are getting ready right now for what he has in store for them. Still wonder about a hurricane tonight, but if not, then definitely tomorrow.

-Andrew92

[Brent]

Anyone ever see a TC travel an average of 20 MPH from Africa to TX...Me Neither..My bet is on this slowing to 10-13 in the W Carribean..

Til right before landfall it was.

[HURAKAN]

876
WHXX01 KWBC 160038
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEAN (AL042007) 20070816 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070816 0000 070816 1200 070817 0000 070817 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 49.2W 14.2N 54.3W 15.5N 59.5W 16.2N 64.4W
BAMD 13.0N 49.2W 13.8N 53.2W 14.7N 56.7W 15.3N 60.0W
BAMM 13.0N 49.2W 13.9N 54.0W 14.8N 58.3W 15.2N 62.5W
LBAR 13.0N 49.2W 13.8N 53.2W 14.6N 57.5W 15.1N 61.8W
SHIP 55KTS 61KTS 69KTS 77KTS
DSHP 55KTS 61KTS 69KTS 77KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070818 0000 070819 0000 070820 0000 070821 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 68.8W 15.9N 76.3W 15.2N 81.8W 15.1N 84.8W
BAMD 16.0N 63.1W 17.4N 69.7W 18.7N 77.0W 20.6N 84.9W
BAMM 15.5N 66.3W 15.7N 73.1W 15.8N 79.5W 16.5N 84.7W
LBAR 15.4N 65.7W 16.7N 71.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 84KTS 93KTS 104KTS 107KTS
DSHP 84KTS 93KTS 104KTS 107KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 49.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 45.1W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 41.7W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$
NNNN

[hial2]

For the first time this evening the chief (Frank Billingsley) put Dean in our 7 day as a possibility.

http://www.click2houston.com/wxmap/710318/detail.html

So did Channel 7 Miami...

http://www1.wsvn.com/weather/

[Bgator]

hmmm models initiated center .1 south....strange... BTW hows do you interpret this?
Lat : 13:18:06 N Lon : 48:45:15 W

Lat: 13.3N and Lon: 48.8W right?

[Lowpressure]

ADT numbers just dropped, not sure why

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt04L.html

Does not make much sence to me either. Looks to be wraping up to me and even protecting itself from further dry air intrusion.

[Ed Mahmoud]

ADT numbers just dropped, not sure why

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt04L.html

Maybe the GFDL and HWRF are on to something....

[hial2]

hmmm models initiated center .1 south....strange... BTW hows do you interpret this?
Lat : 13:18:06 N Lon : 48:45:15 W

Lat: 13.3N and Lon: 48.8W right?

Both are the same...

[tolakram]

Not sure how to read a Dvorak image but I note the higher numbers have moved to the blob.

[gerrit]

I can't speak for the other islands, but here on PR most houses are made out of concrete and will withstand a lot . The problems are floods, mudslides and then the aftermath without services. Even a tropical storm (Jeanne 2004 comes to mind) makes a mess here. Where I live (in the mountains close to the east coast) we were without water and electricity for like 6 weeks.

[SouthFloridawx]

The USA Air Force codes have changed as of 2007, details for decoding based on the 2007 NHOP are as follows. No data using the new code has been released yet so I've added in data to show what it should look like compared with the 2006 format.

USA Air Force

SXXX50 KNHC 190617
AF308 0724A WILMA HDOB 34 KNHC
0608 1651N 08202W 03049 5104 216 059 118 116 062 02997 0000000000 - 2006 Format
0608. 1653N 08203W 03054 5127 215 070 112 112 074 02978 0000000000 - 2006 Format
0609 1654N 08205W 03053 5164 214 083 100 100 089 02941 0000000000 - 2006 Format
0609. 1655N 08206W 03046 5226 213 104 114 114 112 02872 0000000000 - 2006 Format
0610 1656N 08207W 03058 5338 206 132 106 106 143 02771 0000000100 - 2006 Format
0610. 1657N 08209W 03077 5592 201 158 108 108 168 02536 0000000100 - 2006 Format
0611 1658N 08210W 03002 5862 197 054 204 156 103 02190 0000000100 - 2006 Format
0611. 1658N 08212W 03061 5871 102 000 226 112 010 02239 0000110010 - 2006 Format
0612 1658N 08214W 03036 5833 353 058 186 142 098 02254 0000000100 - 2006 Format
061230 1658N 08215W 7000 03000 9000 +108 +108 352159 161 145 100 00 - 2007 Format


Taking the last line:

1) 06:12:30 GMT
2) 16.97N
3) 82.25W
4) Static pressure in aeroplane of 700.0hPa
5) Geopotential height of 3000m
6) 30 second surface pressure mean extrapolation of 900.0hPa
7) 30 second mean air temperature of +10.8C
8) 30 second mean dew point of +10.8C
9) 30 second mean wind direction of 352 degrees
10) 30 second mean wind of 159kts
11) Ten second gust of 161kts
12) Peak ten second Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer [SFMR] surface wind of 145kts
13) SFMR precipitation rate of 100mmh[sup]-1[/sup]
14) Suspect data codes are as follows:

First column indicates status of positional variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 Lat/lon questionable
2 Geopotential altitude or static pressure questionable
3 Both lat/lon and GA/PS questionable

Second column indicates status of meteorological variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 T or TD questionable
2 Flight-level winds questionable
3 SFMR parameter(s) questionable
4 T/TD and FL winds questionable
5 T/TD and SFMR questionable
6 FL winds and SFMR questionable
9 T/TD, FL winds, and SFMR questionable


Changes from 2006 format:

1) Tme with 30 second time interval now denoted by a 00 or 30 instead of a full stop for 30 seconds past each minute
2) Latitude - As before
3) Longitude - As before
4) Pressure to nearest 0.1hPa with leading 1 missing added
5) [s]Pressure altitude removed[/s]
6) [s]Absolute D value removed[/s]
7) Geopotential height in metres added
8) 30 second Extrapolated surface pressure mean to .1hPa with leading 1 missing added (If aeroplane is above 550hPa then is coded as the absolute D value in metres where negative D values are shown by adding 5000 to the value)
9) 30 second air temperature mean with positive and negative signs now added, note this is moved from later in the old format
10) 30 second dew point with with positive and negative signs now added, note this is moved from later in the old format
11) Thirty second mean wind direction - As before
12) Peak thirty second wind average - As before
13) Peak ten second wind average in kts - As before
14) Peak ten second SFMR surface wind in kts added
15) Peak ten second SFMR surface precipitation corresponding with the ten second peak surface wind reading in mmh[sup]-1[/sup] (Shown as 999 if can not be calculated) added

NOAA

Please note I'm unsure of the format for this this year as it is not mentioned at all in the 2007 NHOP, that is if they will be providing this data at all, or the format could now be the same as above.

URNT40 KWBC 251410
NOAA3 0612A KATRINA
140030 2728 07907 4776 +0151 097033 +188 +168 098034 023 004
140100 2726 07907 4814 +0149 095031 +183 +167 096031 021 004
140130 2725 07907 4809 +0144 093033 +183 +176 094034 026 004
140200 2723 07908 4811 +0142 087033 +187 +179 092033 030 006
140230 2721 07908 4808 +0145 096033 +184 +184 095034 035 008
140300 2719 07908 4805 +0140 100031 +185 +184 096032 031 007
140330 2717 07908 4809 +0135 103034 +184 +181 104037 030 004
140400 2715 07908 4803 +0128 103035 +189 +178 104036 029 004
140430 2713 07908 4808 +0125 100033 +190 +175 102033 030 003
140500 2711 07909 4808 +0123 098033 +189 +178 100033 031 004
140530 2709 07909 4811 +0120 099035 +190 +174 102037 031 004
140600 2708 07909 4808 +0114 108039 +193 +171 108040 032 004

Taking the last line again:

1) 14:06:00 GMT
2) 27.15N
3) 79.15W
4) Pressure altitude of 1465m [4808 feet]
5) D value of +35m [+114 feet] (Geopotential Altitude - Pressure Altitude)
6) Wind direction 108 degrees
7) 30 second wind speed of 39kts
8) Air temperature of +19.3C
9) Dewpoint temperature of +17.1C
10) Peak wind ten second from 108 degrees
11) Peak ten second average wind speed of 40kts
12) Estimated surface wind speed of 32kts from the SFMR
13) Estimated precipitation rate of 4mmh[sup]-1[/sup] (Shown as 999 if can not be calculated)


Flight Level to Surface Approximations

The other thing always asked is the reduction factor. Derek Ortt mentioned a paper by Franklin et al. (2003) but I'm not sure many will have seen the post as the thread was moving so quickly. The paper can be found in Weather and Forecasting 18 pp 32-44 and is a very good read if you can access it through your academic institution etc here.

The approximate reductions from Table 2 are given as follows although they can be altered for different storms if the wind profiles from the dropsondes indicate they should.

Flight level--------------Eyewall-----------Outer vortex (convection)-----Outer vortex (not in convection)
700hPa (3,000m)--------0.90------------------0.85------------------------------------0.80
850hPa (1,500m)--------0.80------------------0.80------------------------------------0.75
925hPa (750m)----------0.75------------------0.75------------------------------------0.75
300m----------------------0.80------------------0.80------------------------------------0.80

I noticed that there wasn't a thread for recon tomorrow, maybe we can just keep this and bump it up tomorrow.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151230
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0830 AM EDT WED 15 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

3. TROPICAL STORM DEAN
FLIGHT ONE
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0104A DEAN
C. 16/1430Z
D. 13.2N 53.7W
E. 16/1700Z TO 16/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 17/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0204A DEAN
C. 16/1800Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
4. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 17/12000Z.
ANOTHER G-IV MISSION.

I got a question about the G-IV Flight...

Where does the G-IV fly? As in where is it gathering data at? I thought I saw a chart before... but I can't find it.

Thanks...