WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[oaba09]

JMA is about to upgrade 23W into a tropical storm in some hours. It will be named Mirinae.

<Analyses at 27/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N14°25'(14.4°)
E144°35'(144.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 28/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E138°25'(138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

It seems that the forecast track is beginning to move a little to the north. Still, its projected path is very near to the metropolis.

Here's latest satfix from JTWC:

TPPN10 PGTW 270306

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (NW OF GUAM)

B. 27/0230Z

C. 14.6N

D. 144.6E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/2334Z 14.2N 145.3E AMSU


SMITH

It's supposed to that.....Based on the forecast, The system will move wnw first and then after reaching the peak, it should move wsw......

[StormingB81]

We shall all wait and see. We have become very impatient the last couple of storms. lets jus tsee what it will do and hope for the best

[dexterlabio]

As I said, I will be more comfortable with the forecast to be posted tomorrow. If the forecast tomorrow or the following day will be consistent with all the current predictions, then we got a real big problem.

[metenthusiast]

Hi guys! Any chances of this scenario happening?

[oaba09]

That's the GFS model....I'm not sure how reliable they are though......

[oaba09]

Most forecast is still showing a direct hit on central luzon.............

[metenthusiast]

That's the GFS model....I'm not sure how reliable they are though......

I think they're the first one to deviate and plot the re-curve with Lupit, though I'm still leaning more with the JTWC forecast track...

[dexterlabio]

Hi guys! Any chances of this scenario happening?

Hmmm. They are saying that the ridge on the north at the mean time is zonal. I dunno what that implies but I think that is bringing 23W well to the west. Well, there are a lot of possibilities, but for us here in the Philippines, the best thing we can hope for is a recurve. We don't want to see more devastation in the southern and central luzon, as well as in the northern regions.

[oaba09]

Hi guys! Any chances of this scenario happening?

Also...this was taken from weather underground but if you check their actual 5 day forecast, it's still pretty similar w/ JTWC....

[oaba09]

GFS on top
CMC below..

Anyone who knows where to get a european model???

[metenthusiast]

Hi guys! Any chances of this scenario happening?

Hmmm. They are saying that the ridge on the north at the mean time is zonal. I dunno what that implies but I think that is bringing 23W well to the west. Well, there are a lot of possibilities, but for us here in the Philippines, the best thing we can hope for is a recurve. We don't want to see more devastation in the southern and central luzon, as well as in the northern regions.

I think this would happen if the STR to northwest would fail rebuild or strengthen from TAU 48 thru 72. From what I understand on jtwc's prognostic reasoning, the lifting of a mid-latitude trough and the rebuilding of the STR would be the key factor that would drive the system westward.

"Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products."

[oaba09]

Hi guys! Any chances of this scenario happening?

Hmmm. They are saying that the ridge on the north at the mean time is zonal. I dunno what that implies but I think that is bringing 23W well to the west. Well, there are a lot of possibilities, but for us here in the Philippines, the best thing we can hope for is a recurve. We don't want to see more devastation in the southern and central luzon, as well as in the northern regions.

I think this would happen if the STR to northwest would fail rebuild or strengthen from TAU 48 thru 72. From what I understand on jtwc's prognostic reasoning, the lifting of a mid-latitude trough and the rebuilding of the STR would be the key factor that would drive the system westward.

"Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products."

Basically, for this to happen, the system needs to start heading NW continuously in the coming hours...We'll see later what JTWC's model indicates.......

[metenthusiast]

[oaba09]

The eye is starting to form......

[oaba09]

[metenthusiast]

Potential howler...

[drdavisjr]

Guys, I know I don't have to say this, but things are not looking good. I'd watch closely until Thursday and then start making plans and preparations for a safe location to ride this thing out.

[dexterlabio]

latest ECMWF models







still consistent with its forecast yesterday. models change every 12 hours so the room is still open for all possibilities...

[dexterlabio]

Guys, I know I don't have to say this, but things are not looking good. I'd watch closely until Thursday and then start making plans and preparations for a safe location to ride this thing out.

I am supposed to visit cemetery this friday to prepare for the All Saint's Day, but since we are under the threat of 23W, I am not certain if I can still go by that date.

[drdavisjr]

Taken from http://www.Typhoon200.ph

+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to continue tracking WNW within the next 1-2 days. It will reach Typhoon intensity tomorrow evening. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on a Westerly track on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 4 Typhoon (215 kph) more or less 200 km. North of Camarines Sur...making landfall near Baler, Aurora on Saturday evening - crossing Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga and Zambales during the night. It will exit the South China Sea on All Saint's Day, November 01. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing very close to Camarines Norte, passing over Polillo Island and traversing Northern Quezon, Rizal and Metro Manila beginning Saturday evening until Sunday morning (Oct 30-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.