ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[Miami Storm Tracker]

What run of the Nogaps are you looking at. I see nothing in the 12Z run of it stalling.

[gatorcane]

00Z operational GFS seems a bit more north on this run through 48 hours, but it is initializing 97L near hispaniola and not further east where the center may really be forming. It also seems too fast on the movement.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening Gator,

do you by chance have a link to that run.

[MWatkins]

00Z operational GFS seems a bit more north on this run through 48 hours, but it is initializing 97L near hispaniola and not further east where the center may really be forming. It also seems too fast on the movement.

Yep, doesn't reflect at 500MB, as a somewhat amorphous thing sitting over the Bahamas.

Looks like whatever it is in the GFS is going to make landfall in 54 to 60 hours (Friday).

On another note, it looks like the ULL may have something to do with the track of this system. It could pull 97 along with the weakness it is creating in the mean layer ridge...

MW

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs PARA 30h

[MWatkins]

Thanks WX...system is much better defined in the para version vs. the operational...

[Wx_Warrior]

Gotcha MWat...

Here ya go Miami:
GFS OPS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml

GFS PARA
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/index_carib.shtml

[Miami Storm Tracker]

MW,

Where would your guess of land fall be in that 54 to 60 hour time frame?

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs OPS 66h

[Bocadude85]

On the OPS GFS landfall looks to be Palm Beach

[MWatkins]

MW,

Where would your guess of land fall be in that 54 to 60 hour time frame?

Well, in the model, it looks like the center of whatever it is the model has is in the Broward/Palm Beach area.

I still think that's too far north, but I am starting to consider the impact of the ULL on steering, and that the gradient flow is going to have a ESE component to it.

Also, I don't see a whole lot of movement, so the actual system may be behind the model, and that would extend the time frames.

Honestly, though, with such a poorly defined center it's hard to make a precise call at this point. SE and SW Florida, for that matter, should watch this thing closely throughout the day tomorrow.

MW

[KFDM Meteorologist]

LOL moves it north into a Ridge, makes alot of sense, typical GFS.

[Ivanhater]

LOL moves it north into a Ridge, makes alot of sense, typical GFS.

No, the GFS has the ridge oriented SE to NW so the surface reflection fits quite well for this particular run.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

We'll see how many times the GFS changes the next several days on the 500.

[Bocadude85]

On the PARA GFS landfall looks to be Miami-Dade or Broward

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you MW,

maybe I understood wrong. I thought the upper level low was going to break down in the 6 to 12 hour time frame. An would becaome a non issue and allow this to get going.

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs OPs 78h

[Ivanhater]

We'll see how many times the GFS changes the next several days on the 500.

Remember, the Euro agreed with the GFS and other models yesterday and the Euro switched once on the 12z .

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS PARA 60H



GFS PARA 72h

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like both the operational and parallel GFS have shifted north from the 18z.