ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

BobHarlem · #341 Postby **BobHarlem** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:56 pm

The 0z gfs run had the NOAA Gulfstream IV data in it as well.

The 0z HWRF is showing a solid Cat 4 Thursday night/Friday morning near the central Bahamas.

#342 Postby **Alyono** » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:58 pm

CMC also has a Delmarva landfall

TheStormExpert · #343 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:00 am

Alyono wrote:CMC also has a Delmarva landfall

Weaker than GFS with a pressure of 972mb.

#344 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:02 am

Alyono wrote:CMC also has a Delmarva landfall

Looks like even if the Euro stays put..its own ensembles disagreed this afternoon...I just don't see how NHC won't pull the trigger in the morning given Euro's record this year

#345 Postby **Alyono** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:03 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
Alyono wrote:CMC also has a Delmarva landfall

Weaker than GFS with a pressure of 972mb.

lower resolution.

PTrackerLA · #346 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:09 am

Just curious, do all the models keep Joaquin purely tropical at landfall? I remember seeing all the dense isobars with Sandy in the modeling, but we know what she looked like at landfall.

#347 Postby **xironman** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:09 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Alyono wrote:CMC also has a Delmarva landfall

Looks like even if the Euro stays put..its own ensembles disagreed this afternoon...I just don't see how NHC won't pull the trigger in the morning given Euro's record this year

The Euro should be coming into line with the GFS, once you are north of 35 degrees the models do pretty well with the pattern at this time frame (96hrs). Unlike the tropics you don't need to worry if something is going to develop or not because it driven from the pattern. If Joaquin still exists it should follow basically the same course, as seen with GFS, CMC and UK.

#348 Postby **Alyono** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:25 am

GFDL now has a massive strike on NC/VA

Aric Dunn · #349 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:30 am

Alyono wrote:GFDL now has a massive strike on NC/VA

anyone have links to GFDL, HWRF and all that.. beside the experimental tropical FSU site.. I lost everything..

Hammy · #350 Postby **Hammy** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:30 am

PTrackerLA wrote:Just curious, do all the models keep Joaquin purely tropical at landfall? I remember seeing all the dense isobars with Sandy in the modeling, but we know what she looked like at landfall.

Going solely off of simulated IR of various models, it looks less than fully tropical, but still more tropical than Sandy (i.e. it shouldn't come in as an ET system) which makes sense since Sandy was essentially a hybrid system already by this latitude as well as it being later in October.

#351 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:33 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Alyono wrote:GFDL now has a massive strike on NC/VA

anyone have links to GFDL, HWRF and all that.. beside the experimental tropical FSU site.. I lost everything..

HWRF: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2015093000&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=59

GFDL: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl&region=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2015092918&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=59

#352 Postby **xironman** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:34 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Alyono wrote:GFDL now has a massive strike on NC/VA

anyone have links to GFDL, HWRF and all that.. beside the experimental tropical FSU site.. I lost everything..

Normally tropicaltidbits is great, but tonight it seems locked up

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=176

1900hurricane · #353 Postby **1900hurricane** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:36 am

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the most recent 00Z HWRF is the first run of any model that has Joaquin drop below 930 mb at some point.

Aric Dunn · #354 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:37 am

Thanks

#355 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:48 am

Euro starts in a few minutes...

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#356 Postby **LarryWx** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:49 am

I earlier mentioned in response to SEGaBob that I had seen no model runs threaten the FL/GA/lower SC areas. Well, I just found one from 12Z today: the 12Z JMA hits just south of Charleston, SC, early 10/4 with what looks like a hybrid (988 mb) as Joaquin is brought inside the very far south SE upper low. I don't for one second think that this will occur but felt it should be mentioned as an extreme outlier, especially since I'm about the only one who ever mentions the JMA:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _atl_6.png

#357 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:52 am

00z GFS ensembles. Looks like the mean had a healthy shift to the East.

#358 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:54 am

00z Euro is live:

#359 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:56 am

Kingarabian, please continue postin the Euro if possible. I cannot from my iphone for som reason

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#360 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Sep 30, 2015 12:58 am

Instantweathermaps.com seems to be running really slow right now. At least for me.