ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Strongest I have seen is a 31kt ship report.

[AutoPenalti]

Starting to hear rumbles of thunder in Northeast Broward County

[Ivanhater]

Looks to be forming. ..is it heading down I10 and won't strengthen?

[AutoPenalti]

40 mins too late I presume but NWS confirms a tornado did touch down.
 https://twitter.com/NWSMelbourne/status/775756991474065408

[Aric Dunn]

40 mins too late I presume but NWS confirms a tornado did touch down.
 https://twitter.com/NWSMelbourne/status/775756991474065408

for some reason its always barefoot bay.. 25 years+ years in florida and I swear that town always gets it..

[northjaxpro]

Yeah it looks like the system is going to pacyclont heast Florida coast right up to about our area here in Jacksonville so it looks pretty good I think that the NHC is going to upgrade this to a depression at any time this afternoon. It got just far enough back to the coastline to develop, straddling the coast just enough to feed off that warm water of the Gulf Stream up to keep that low-level center tight enough to sustain it and to keep it as a depression. Very interesting system, reminds me of Tammy. This will look to be the third tropical cyclone to impact NE FL this season. Just hope 93L will bring us a good soaking rain.in this region.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing where any 34kt winds were reported by a coastal buoy. I see the buoy east of the cape reported 25 kts max. Where is the evidence of TS winds? Radar won't count, as unless the radar is at Daytona Beach it's looking well above the surface (2000-7000ft at 50nm from Melbourne Radar).

Well, the NHC says there's TS winds in the convection off shore but if it's not a TS, then TD most likely.

They may be looking at Melbourne Doppler radar, the beam of which is well above the surface where those squalls are. I'm not seeing any buoy reports of actual surface TS winds. The weak surface low appears to be moving NNW just west of Daytona Beach now. Staying inland and heading for Georgia.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed there isn't enough data to call it TS Julia...MAYBE TD 11, but even then given the marginal conditions I'd be hesitant for an upgrade, since strengthening is not terribly likely and warnings may not be necessary. If there are TS winds though then an upgrade is necessary as soon as it is a TC.

[Ivanhater]

I'm not seeing where any 34kt winds were reported by a coastal buoy. I see the buoy east of the cape reported 25 kts max. Where is the evidence of TS winds? Radar won't count, as unless the radar is at Daytona Beach it's looking well above the surface (2000-7000ft at 50nm from Melbourne Radar).

Well, the NHC says there's TS winds in the convection off shore but if it's not a TS, then TD most likely.

They may be looking at Melbourne Doppler radar, the beam of which is well above the surface where those squalls are. I'm not seeing any buoy reports of actual surface TS winds. The weak surface low appears to be moving NNW just west of Daytona Beach now. Staying inland and heading for Georgia.

Shouldn't we have plenty of surface obs at this point to confirm?

[Aric Dunn]

I'm not seeing where any 34kt winds were reported by a coastal buoy. I see the buoy east of the cape reported 25 kts max. Where is the evidence of TS winds? Radar won't count, as unless the radar is at Daytona Beach it's looking well above the surface (2000-7000ft at 50nm from Melbourne Radar).

Well, the NHC says there's TS winds in the convection off shore but if it's not a TS, then TD most likely.

They may be looking at Melbourne Doppler radar, the beam of which is well above the surface where those squalls are. I'm not seeing any buoy reports of actual surface TS winds. The weak surface low appears to be moving NNW just west of Daytona Beach now. Staying inland and heading for Georgia.

Even if using radar.i just found plenty of upper 40 kts winds highest being 49kts. even after a reduction and any inconsitencies with doppler velocities that still would give a TS. once you start seeing nearly 60mph even at 2000 to 3000 feet good bet some of it is reaching the surface..

[Emmett_Brown]

this is where recon excels... finding the scope of wind fields

[SeGaBob]

It looks like it weakened a little in the last couple of frames. I'm kind of sceptical they'll initiate advisories...

[ronjon]

TWC just said it's a mid level center along the coast while llc located near Orlando. So it's decoupled.

[terstorm1012]

When I thought there'd be quite a few homebrew systems this year, this isn't quite what I meant!

But I'm skeptical advisories will begin. Interesting system nonetheless.

[Kazmit]

This escalated quickly. I think this will stay weak, considering it's proximity to land, and short time period it has to strengthen before moving over northern Florida.

[StormHunter72]

Thank God it is just Rain!!!

[Aric Dunn]

If it can manage to work that MLC to the surface NHC will most likely upgrade., the LLC if still over land is a tough call. all the convection is associated with the MLC so it should not have much of a problem working down.

[LarryWx]

Lowest Florida pressure I could find at 2 PM was 1011 mb well inland at The Villages. Daytona was 2 mb higher at 1013 mb. Waiting on the 3 PM update. As others have said, this isn't well stacked at all I assume due to strong shear blowing to the NE.

[wxman57]

Shouldn't we have plenty of surface obs at this point to confirm?

We DO have plenty of surface obs, and none of them confirms 34+kt winds. NHC had the surface center about 30 miles west of Daytona Beach and moving toward the NW (325 deg) at 12 kts. That would keep it well inland.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, the surface low is near Ocala moving NNW and the MLC is displaced to the east along the Coast, expect to see the MLC begin to lose identity tonight as this spins down. If it had one more day over water or moved more Westward toward the Gulf it very well could have made TS status, ran out of water and time!