ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[msbee]

anyone have windward islands radar site ty

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

[AutoPenalti]

We are just about to hit DMAX so it should enhance convection overnight.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172317
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 48 20170817
230700 1255N 05617W 8433 01556 0067 +198 +157 139011 012 017 000 00
230730 1254N 05618W 8433 01556 0073 +190 +161 139006 008 014 000 00
230800 1253N 05619W 8429 01561 0073 +190 +157 138005 006 014 000 00
230830 1252N 05621W 8432 01559 0071 +194 +157 026002 004 015 000 00
230900 1251N 05622W 8434 01557 0075 +191 +159 343005 005 014 000 00
230930 1250N 05623W 8428 01564 0073 +195 +155 343006 006 014 000 00
231000 1249N 05624W 8437 01556 0074 +195 +159 355006 007 015 000 00
231030 1248N 05626W 8432 01562 0074 +195 +159 002007 008 025 000 00
231100 1247N 05627W 8435 01561 0077 +190 +166 016008 008 024 001 00
231130 1246N 05628W 8428 01568 0078 +191 +166 022007 008 023 000 00
231200 1244N 05629W 8429 01566 0077 +189 +174 008006 007 024 000 00
231230 1243N 05631W 8432 01565 0080 +188 +172 009008 009 025 000 00
231300 1242N 05632W 8435 01561 0082 +187 +175 020008 010 024 001 00
231330 1241N 05633W 8438 01560 //// +181 //// 023007 009 023 000 01
231400 1239N 05634W 8430 01570 //// +180 //// 030008 009 023 000 01
231430 1238N 05635W 8437 01562 0089 +180 +178 030008 009 021 000 01
231500 1237N 05637W 8433 01568 //// +175 //// 034009 009 019 000 01
231530 1236N 05638W 8429 01573 //// +175 //// 031009 010 021 001 01
231600 1236N 05638W 8429 01573 //// +163 //// 023012 013 024 002 01
231630 1233N 05640W 8432 01570 //// +170 //// 016010 012 024 002 01
$$
;

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Convection on the rise...

Awesome, and due west right now!

Well hello there soon to be Irma. Future Irma may also end up like Hermine did and put up a fight against all the factors against her. We saw what happened there, Cat 1 near pandhandle at times almost reaching Cat 2 winds.

[Aric Dunn]

aaaannnddd like I and others have mentioned its has been classifiable and should already be TC. its like waiting for a fish to get hooked vs. and nibble... oh oh oh nope .. wait.. noppe.. nevermind.. oh crap fish on fish on..

[cycloneye]

[Hammy]

aaaannnddd like I and others have mentioned its has been classifiable and should already be TC. its like waiting for a fish to get hooked vs. and nibble... oh oh oh nope .. wait.. noppe.. nevermind.. oh crap fish on fish on..

It's headed in that direction, but personally I don't think this can be classified until a closed circulation is confirmed (it's trying to close but not quite there yet--no west wind on the buoy) and the convection is more consistent. Could see an upgrade by this time tomorrow if it holds together.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 172327
AF303 0109A INVEST HDOB 49 20170817
231700 1232N 05642W 8433 01571 //// +172 //// 015011 012 021 000 01
231730 1231N 05643W 8439 01567 //// +169 //// 016008 012 021 000 01
231800 1230N 05644W 8429 01577 0098 +173 +172 014009 009 021 000 01
231830 1228N 05645W 8430 01576 //// +170 //// 030009 010 022 000 01
231900 1227N 05647W 8436 01571 //// +162 //// 009010 012 026 004 01
231930 1226N 05648W 8436 01571 //// +169 //// 003007 010 023 001 01
232000 1225N 05649W 8433 01576 0101 +174 +174 353007 008 020 000 01
232030 1224N 05650W 8430 01578 0103 +175 +173 357007 008 020 000 00
232100 1222N 05651W 8434 01576 0103 +175 +170 339007 007 020 000 00
232130 1222N 05651W 8434 01576 0103 +176 +169 327005 006 020 000 00
232200 1220N 05654W 8434 01576 0100 +180 +167 334005 007 020 000 00
232230 1219N 05655W 8433 01579 0104 +176 +168 335006 007 020 000 00
232300 1218N 05656W 8430 01581 0106 +173 +169 331007 008 020 000 00
232330 1216N 05657W 8434 01578 0108 +170 +168 332008 009 020 000 00
232400 1215N 05659W 8432 01583 0113 +170 +168 336008 008 019 000 00
232430 1214N 05700W 8429 01585 0111 +170 +168 346005 007 018 000 00
232500 1213N 05701W 8434 01582 0115 +170 +162 317003 005 018 000 00
232530 1212N 05702W 8428 01589 0117 +170 +152 286005 005 019 000 00
232600 1210N 05703W 8432 01585 0118 +170 +150 284005 005 018 000 00
232630 1209N 05704W 8436 01583 0119 +170 +148 287007 008 018 000 00
$$
;

[Frank2]

To the left of 92L is the southern lobe of the next ULL, moving southward into 92's path - not the best for development:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[South Texas Storms]

NHC is up to 70% on the development chances. Looks good on satellite.

[AubreyStorm]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands have
changed little in organization during the past several hours.
However, only a slight increase in the organization of the shower
activity could lead to the formation of a tropical depression during
the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less
favorable for development early next week. The low is expected
to move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few
days, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif

This is very close if not a depression now.

[AtlanticWind]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands have
changed little in organization during the past several hours.
However, only a slight increase in the organization of the shower
activity could lead to the formation of a tropical depression during
the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less
favorable for development early next week. The low is expected
to move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few
days, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

I noticed they changed the less favorable conditions to next week instead of the weekend.

[Evil Jeremy]

Evening folks. It's been an active season thus far, and 92L has my eye. Time to pull out the ol' tropical bookmarks! Could be a fascinating week ahead.

[tgenius]

Evening folks. It's been an active season thus far, and 92L has my eye. Time to pull out the ol' tropical bookmarks! Could be a fascinating week ahead.

If this does keep up like clockwork the news down here in SFL will go into hyperdrive... Herald website already showing the wave coming in this general direction.

[gatorcane]

new deep convection firing just west of possible LLC. I say this is a TD at this point. Not sure what NHC is waiting for. At least we would get a discussion and track forecast if this was upgraded. Would love to see what the NHC is thinking on the future of this system.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[rickybobby]

My neighbors bones are starting to hurt. Last year he was 50/50. Good time to make sure you have everything prepared.

[northjaxpro]

This has already shaped up as an incredible week. Monitoring Harvey and our other developing cyclone (92L) tracking currently and of course the solar eclipse on Monday! Wow! What a ride we are embarking upon for sure!

[MGC]

92L is running into a wall of shear soon. I think short term development odds are a bit bullish. Still need to keep a close eye on this one for possible USA impacts.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Off Topic=Those who are interested to discuss about the Total Solar Eclipse of August 21 go here.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=118584