ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017

Jose's convective cloud mass has evolved from a rather shapeless
one into a comma-type pattern today. This increased organization
suggests that the cyclone is at least holding its own in terms of
intensity. The advisory intensity of 65 kt is in agreement with a
Dvorak T-number from TAFB and a Current Intensity number from SAB.
The dynamical guidance shows moderate to strong shear, from varying
directions, over Jose throughout the forecast period. The consensus
of the intensity models shows little change in strength for the
next 5 days, and so does the official forecast. This is a slight
change from the previous forecast which called for Jose to weaken
to a tropical storm within a day or so. Given the current trend
toward better organization, however, Jose could easily intensify
more than shown here.

A slight repositioning of the working best track was done using a
center fix from an excellent Windsat image from earlier today. The
initial motion estimate is a little south of east or 100/6 kt. The
GFS and ECMWF global models show a mid-level ridge building west,
then north, and then east-northeast of Jose over the next few days.
As a result, it is expected that the system will execute an
anticyclonic loop over the next 72 hours or so. Later in the
forecast period, Jose is forecast to turn northward and
north-northeastward while moving through a break in the ridge.
For unknown reasons, the U.K. Met. Office model track continues to
be well west and south of the other guidance. The official
forecast track favors the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, but does
not go as far to the north-northeast as the ECMWF near the end of
the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 27.6N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 27.1N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 26.3N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 26.0N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 26.2N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 27.3N 69.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 30.0N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 32.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[jlauderdal]

craig setzer channel 4 miami says no jose for miami...hope he is right

[txwatcher91]

Key phrase from the discussion: "The initial motion estimate is a little south of east or 100/6 kt." The earlier ESE turn lines up much better with the UK vs the other globals... Hmmm.

[NJWxHurricane]

Key phrase from the discussion: "The initial motion estimate is a little south of east or 100/6 kt." The earlier ESE turn lines up much better with the UK vs the other globals... Hmmm.

that's definitely not what they meant

[txwatcher91]

Key phrase from the discussion: "The initial motion estimate is a little south of east or 100/6 kt." The earlier ESE turn lines up much better with the UK vs the other globals... Hmmm.

that's definitely not what they meant

I know that. My point is we have confirmation this is moving ESE now and that lines up much better with the UK model. In fact judging by final visibles of the day this looks to be turning more SE in motion now.

[Alyono]

I cannot believe Pasch said that the UK is well south and west for unknown reasons

The reason is obvious. The UKMET is MUCH stronger

The next 48 hours will determine if Jose strikes the USA or remains well offshore

[Aric Dunn]

Its also clearly not moving east.. ..

Also new microwave image. Pretty well organized..

Def not weakening

['CaneFreak]

Yes. Don't like to see that Shrimp shape. Not good. Other than it moving over its own wake, I don't see any reason why it can't intensify. I don't see much shear here if any at all. Our shear forecasts are horrible to put it bluntly. The UKMET may be on to something here. We definitely need to get some planes out here pronto.

Its also clearly not moving east.. ..

Also new microwave image. Pretty well organized..

Def not weakening

[Aric Dunn]

last couple hours it has just started really started moving to the SE..

[Aric Dunn]

lol in the next few hours its going to be at the 18z postion on the 14th haha

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

and very likely passing it to the south quite a bit farther ..

['CaneFreak]

Massive -80C tops just popped up over the center again. Geez.

[NotSparta]

Massive -80C tops just popped up over the center again. Geez.

This storm has found a real interest in very deep convection lately

[GCANE]

Wow, now that's a hot tower.

[Aric Dunn]

I dont remember seeing the models moving this massive upper ridge closer to jose ? likely why its been more arganized and likely stronger now.. the weaker models will have no choice but to adjust if the intensity continues to hold..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... rjava.html

and

[aperson]

Wow, now that's a hot tower.

Jose is wasting no time with diurnal convective maximum approaching. Going to be interesting to see what it pulls off tonight with better rotation given the explosive convection all throughout last night.

[Aric Dunn]

Definately losing more latitude quicker now.. this is 3 hours old ( but just updated) and satellite is south and not much east..

[AutoPenalti]

Kinda freaky to see a TC move south of east.

[Aric Dunn]

Current low level steering.. is weak


low level



while midto upper level steering ( which is what jose is following presently ) is very well pronounced and why we are seeing a more se motion and why the UKMET might be more a possibility than not.


mid to upper

[jlauderdal]

I cannot believe Pasch said that the UK is well south and west for unknown reasons

The reason is obvious. The UKMET is MUCH stronger

The next 48 hours will determine if Jose strikes the USA or remains well offshore

I found that to be a rather odd statement too...its been well diagnosed on this thread, maybe we should send pasch the link to the model and disco thread...setzer and phill ferro both say its definitely missing us...that seems unwise considering its not unreasonable to make a run at the east coast

[txwatcher91]

This is dropping S or SE right now at a good clip. I’d estimate the center around 26.5N already... it’s diving quickly for sure and gives a lot of weight to the UKMET idea. Nice convective explosion ongoing and heading into dmax will help too. As it plunges south it has a bit less shear to deal with too.