NATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

This year feels like 1988 and 2007. It's been either feast or famine...either they become monsters or struggle to develop.

[Pelicane]

This year feels like 1988 and 2007. It's been either feast or famine...either they become monsters or struggle to develop.

Both C5s have been in generally the same areas, also like 07.

[Teban54]

This year feels like 1988 and 2007. It's been either feast or famine...either they become monsters or struggle to develop.

Both C5s have been in generally the same areas, also like 07.

That also applies to 2017, with Irma and Maria both peaking near the NE Caribbean.

[Pelicane]

This year feels like 1988 and 2007. It's been either feast or famine...either they become monsters or struggle to develop.

Both C5s have been in generally the same areas, also like 07.

That also applies to 2017, with Irma and Maria both peaking near the NE Caribbean.

And Jose, which was a borderline 5.

[FireRat]

First tone since 1932-33 that we get 2 consecutive years with multiple Cat 5s.
Absolutely insane!!

2025 is the ultimate trickster of a season, a truly Jekyll & Hyde tipe season

[ryxn314]

The mad lads actually did it. Wow. Humberto avenges Sam.

What's crazy is that if Sam (2021) was a 160mph CAT 5 (which many, including myself, believe it was at some point), and Iota (2020) actually hit 160mph and didn't fall just short, then the 2016-2025 period would have been a record 10 consecutive years featuring at least one CAT 5. Joaquin (2015) was also very close at 155mph. But the record streaks being so close together is already impressive (2016-19 and 2022-25).

[Category5Kaiju]

The number of 155+ mph storms we've had in the Atlantic since 2015 is just phenomenal (let alone the presence of at least one during each season since then). I seriously wonder if Mother Nature will be able to sweep 2026-2029 with this streak as well.

[psyclone]

It's a year of quality over quantity for a change. incredible black hole buzzsaw.

[Hurricane2022]

Wonderful!


I'm very glad this is officially a Category 5 BUT I'd personally estimate this is at ~150 kt now.

[Hammy]

So just about every single Humberto has overperformed:

1995:
110 - peak
45 - first advisory forecast (54 hours before peak)

2001:
105 - second peak
note: immediate weakening was forecast for the ten consecutive advisories leading up to this--it was only forecast to increase to 80 prior
100 - peak (first peak)
70 - first advisory forecast (60h before)

2007:
90 - peak
45 - first advisory forecast (18h before)

2013:
Humberto was forecast to 105, peaking at 90--but in a year where there were only two hurricanes, the name still managed to be used on one of them

2019:
125 - peak (beyond the 120h forecast)
105 - forecast peak 120h before
max peak (once it reached 115) was forecast to 120, otherwise was not even forecast to become a major at all until 36h before

2025:
160 - peak
80 - first advisory forecast for the current point
110 - 120h forecast on first advisory

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/TheSteveCop/status/1972041473081422217

[IcyTundra]

The number of 155+ mph storms we've had in the Atlantic since 2015 is just phenomenal (let alone the presence of at least one during each season since then). I seriously wonder if Mother Nature will be able to sweep 2026-2029 with this streak as well.

I wouldn't bet against it.

[Kingarabian]

Beautiful monster

[aspen]

The CDO has expanded significantly in the last hour or two. It’s also a little less smooth around the edges. Both are probably indicative of an incoming EWRC.

Would be cool if recon tomorrow night manages to catch a second round of intensification after the EWRC completes (if it goes through uninterrupted).

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1972032611544715356

[Teban54]

Some records held by the name Humberto:

• Humberto is now one of the 4 names that have become a hurricane 6 times, the highest on record.
  
  • The other 6-time hurricane users are: Earl, Florence, and Frances.
• Humberto became a hurricane every time the name was used. Among such "perfect record" holders, Humberto had a greater number of uses by a long shot.
  
  • Other "perfect record" holders have only managed a streak of at most 4 uses. All such names with 4 uses are no longer on today's naming lists: Felix, Floyd, Gladys, Lili.
  • Among the list of names still in use today, only two other names had perfect records after a measly 2 uses: Rafael and Holly. (Holly, the replacement of Helene, only got here because the name was used twice before the modern naming lists.)

You can find details of both records in this post that I wrote in April, which has just been updated with 2025 storm names.

[Teban54]

Sunset:

[Iceresistance]

This pass from 21z

https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bw3QY.png

[zzzh]

From that microwave pass EWRC is not immenent, but will likely happen within the next 12h.

[sasha_B]

Still has some time to strengthen before internal mechanics disrupt this round of intensification. Though I'm a little curious as to why intensification to 145 kts is explicitly forecast, when the question of whether it verifies or not it will essentially come down to a judgement call in the absence of recon. It's quite possible that the storm is near or at that strength already, but T7.0 (subjective) and T7.2 (ADT) is probably the best Humberto can manage in the time it has, which equates to roughly...140 kts, still. It took a T7.5 fix for Typhoon Ragasa to get upgraded to 145, and that was with impressive surface observations and a major landfall threat. Hard to imagine that happening here, though I know it's a different agency issuing the advisories.