NATL: IMELDA - Models

[Kingarabian]

Hope the Euro also continues to show OTS. The inland flooding estimates for SC and NC were no joke.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro hovers and loops around offshore of the carolinas Tuesday-Saturday then heads up to Wilmington/Morehead city. Euro is back to a (Delayed) landfall.

[ronjon]

Looks like some of 12z models are showing a slightly faster movement for TD9 that brings it onshore or close to shore near GA-SC border region in 3 days and then steering collapses resulting a slow meandering over land or offshore (HAFS, HMON & ECM). Others like CMC, GFS and ICON show a much stronger east movement following Humberto before it reaches the coast. Still a very difficult forecast.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro hovers and loops around offshore of the carolinas Tuesday-Saturday then heads up to Wilmington/Morehead city. Euro is back to a (Delayed) landfall.

https://i.postimg.cc/7hNSvtVx/floop-ecmwf-full-2025092712-sfcwind-mslp-swatl.gif

Potential for some serious flooding with this solution.

[LarryWx]

Rut Roh...12z HAFS-A (973 mb) and HMON (976mb) into Savannah area at 72-75 hours. 12z HAFS-A much faster than 06z run.

-The NHC 2PM position was 22.0N, 76.5W.
-The HMON 2PM position was ~22N, 77W or 35 miles too far W.
-It’s hard to find a HAFS-A 2PM position.
-The HWRF 2PM position was 21.8N, 76.8W, ~25 miles too far SW fwiw

[KPILM]

12z Euro hovers and loops around offshore of the carolinas Tuesday-Saturday then heads up to Wilmington/Morehead city. Euro is back to a (Delayed) landfall.

https://i.postimg.cc/7hNSvtVx/floop-ecmwf-full-2025092712-sfcwind-mslp-swatl.gif

I'm not buying this one at all.

[BobHarlem]

No big changes on the 18z earlies

[syfr]

^^^

The North Wall has moved south about 100 miles from previous set.

[BobHarlem]

Mixed outcomes on the 12z Euro Ensembles.

[JtSmarts]

This is turning into an epic battle between the Hurricane models and the Global models. The hurricane models all have that eyewall coming very close to the GA/SC coasts. It's incredibly fascinating from a meteorological perspective, I'm keeping notes on what's been happening so I'll remember when future model battles occur.

[LarryWx]

This is turning into an epic battle between the Hurricane models and the Global models. The hurricane models all have that eyewall coming very close to the GA/SC coasts. It's incredibly fascinating from a meteorological perspective, I'm keeping notes on what's been happening so I'll remember when future model battles occur.

Globals are usually better for track. And models are initializing too far W.

[TomballEd]

This is turning into an epic battle between the Hurricane models and the Global models. The hurricane models all have that eyewall coming very close to the GA/SC coasts. It's incredibly fascinating from a meteorological perspective, I'm keeping notes on what's been happening so I'll remember when future model battles occur.

Globals are usually better for track. And models are initializing too far W.

The center is still not very well defined looking at satellite and recon. Ensembles are the way to go when there are questions of initialization, I'd say eyeball averaging Euro, Canadian and GFS perturbations, 85% OTS and 15% either landfall or close enough to landfall to have affects beyond rough surf and strong breezes. The later this waits to turn more N, the better the chance Humberto gets past it in latitude and sling it out to sea.

[BobHarlem]

18z icon is a little right of the 12z (further away from Florida) and only gets to 29.7N before heading east (12z made it to 30.5N).

[ConvergenceZone]

This is turning into an epic battle between the Hurricane models and the Global models. The hurricane models all have that eyewall coming very close to the GA/SC coasts. It's incredibly fascinating from a meteorological perspective, I'm keeping notes on what's been happening so I'll remember when future model battles occur.

Globals are usually better for track. And models are initializing too far W.

The center is still not very well defined looking at satellite and recon. Ensembles are the way to go when there are questions of initialization, I'd say eyeball averaging Euro, Canadian and GFS perturbations, 85% OTS and 15% either landfall or close enough to landfall to have affects beyond rough surf and strong breezes. The later this waits to turn more N, the better the chance Humberto gets past it in latitude and sling it out to sea.

I agree with this post regarding the models. We have been so lucky this year so far. And Thank God for that! It's almost as if Mother nature is saying, "you guys deserve a break this year".

[Weathertracker96]

It seems the GFS is slightly more closer to FL but it could be just me.

[BobHarlem]

The 18z GFS is slower than 12z, and starts to veer right of the 12z (Further away from Florida) around the 27 hour mark. Starts to cut hard east like the icon around 29.6N (Roughly the latitude of St. Augustine) On the way out it manages to stay safely south of Bermuda, although it stalls there similar to 12z, then drifts north and goes right over Bermuda.


Bermuda Landfall:

[Kingarabian]

GFS looks very similar to the ICON and seems to be headed OTS. Assuming the Euro will follow suit at 18z.

[skillz305]

It seems the GFS is slightly more closer to FL but it could be just me.

It definitely is. We are gonna get some decent bands and squally weather here on EC central FL

[BobHarlem]

18z euro
Gets just offshore of Charleston late Tuesday (probably close enough for strong ts/hurricane winds)
and sits there and drifts slowly around up off the NC until Friday (end of 18z run)

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS did turn OTS but also did a weird turn back to the NW closer to the NECONUS. So seems like the models are picking up on the ridge building back again