2026 ENSO Updates

[Iceresistance]

The SOI does not cooperate.

https://i.imgur.com/yVqUCnt.jpeg

[url]date%20Select%20to%20see%20full-size%20map%20of%2030-day%20Southern%20Oscillation%20Index%20values%20for%20the%20past%20two%20years,%20updated%20daily.[/url]

I already was aware of the noisiness of SOI rendering it unreliable in a lot of cases but Eric Webb really delves into it here:
 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2032814068407382070


We'll probably see the index eventually dip into negative territory as the event fully commits to the flip to +ENSO but the direction we're headed is pretty evident without analyzing SOI. Still questions to be answered regarding the flavor and what not, but unless we experience a 2014-esque type of failure I cannot envision anything weaker than a moderate-strong Niño.

The SOI index is about to get a lot more unreliable for a while because of Tropical Cyclone Narelle heading in the general direction of Darwin

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bmQI2.png

[Kingarabian]

The SOI does not cooperate.

https://i.imgur.com/yVqUCnt.jpeg

[url]date%20Select%20to%20see%20full-size%20map%20of%2030-day%20Southern%20Oscillation%20Index%20values%20for%20the%20past%20two%20years,%20updated%20daily.[/url]

I already was aware of the noisiness of SOI rendering it unreliable in a lot of cases but Eric Webb really delves into it here:
 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2032814068407382070


We'll probably see the index eventually dip into negative territory as the event fully commits to the flip to +ENSO but the direction we're headed is pretty evident without analyzing SOI. Still questions to be answered regarding the flavor and what not, but unless we experience a 2014-esque type of failure I cannot envision anything weaker than a moderate-strong Niño.

The SOI just needs to be used correctly. I agree the 30 day SOI is noisy. But 90 day is ENSO and is usually spot on regardless of ENSO flavor. 90 day SOI is +10 meaning that the atmosphere is still in -ENSO mode for now. Meaning the Walker circulation has remained strong over the past 3 months. Models and current obs still show this as being true with a sinking branch still over the dateline. However that is likely to change entering the summer and the 90 day SOI will likely tank by June. Especially if an actual El Nino is emerging which a lot of indicators show.

The SOI isn't predictive in the winter and spring but it can be very predictive by July. Meaning if it's July and the 90 day SOI is still +8 or higher a robust El Nino is not likely for JJA/JAS and neutral is more likely.

[cycloneye]

Will be different than 2023.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2034648178352386540

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Will be different than 2023.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2034648178352386540

Yeah even if the NATL warms a good bit, the more favorable Pacific configuration will likely prove a hindrance regardless.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/2034630175204253994

[Iceresistance]

That GFS is insane, I wonder what if it keeps going with that forecast for the monster WWB


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bmcce.png

[Ntxw]

Next downwelling KW will likely help the building warm waters at depth push east (new surge.) The surface is also coming in from the Costero event happening in the east. The next month or two will be emerging into warm ENSO.



You can see on the hovmollers diagrams each westerly wind event is progressively moving more eastward, despite calls of weaker than what the models were showing, didn't change the outcome of the ocean warming.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2034832119369703530