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Extremeweatherguy
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#341 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:08 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:This thing could disappate later tonight or tomorrow, cause everytime a system makes its way towards Florida, it goes poof. I think the same will go for TD One.
well except Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina and Wilma that is. :wink:
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HurricaneHunter914
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#342 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:08 pm

But look at the conditions, they are really bad for devlopment. In my opinion this TD is a waste of time.
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#343 Postby conestogo_flood » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:09 pm

conestogo_flood wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:
conestogo_flood wrote:I've been gone for an hour, and it's already storm cancellation?


Was they really ever a storm to begin with?

This could have been one of those "storms" that needed recon for verification.


Only because about 2 hours ago everyone was talking about it getting worse..

On CNN right now, the NHC plane says winds are possible to be TS strength. The met says it's strengthening. IT COULD BE A TROPICAL STORM. NHC READING TS FORCE WINDS.
Before this gets to far away to read. I'll post again.
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#344 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:10 pm

It could be a tropical storm? There has not been a single Recon report of TS-force winds. The strongest was 32 kt flight level (29 kt surface level) although the deep convection was not well sampled. I'd leave it at 30 kt (35 mph) for now.
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#345 Postby ronjon » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:11 pm

Looks to me that a MLC to the south is moving north and if this aligns with the LLC currently around the western tip of Cuba it may start to develop. The LLC is elongated and broad - pressure is low enough for a TD so the NHC will probably just keep it at a TD overnight and watch and wait.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html
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#346 Postby conestogo_flood » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:18 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It could be a tropical storm? There has not been a single Recon report of TS-force winds. The strongest was 32 kt flight level (29 kt surface level) although the deep convection was not well sampled. I'd leave it at 30 kt (35 mph) for now.


The CNN met was on the phone with the recconisance or whatever it is. They said they have read a few wind speeds indicative of tropical storm force not too long ago. I'm just going by what the CNN met was saying. She said it will be upgraded soon probable.
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#347 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:18 pm

NRL has raised the pressure to 1004 this afternoon, and it's not looking healthy to say the least.

Image
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#348 Postby whereverwx » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:28 pm

Wunderground updated their graphics. They look nice.
Image Image
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#349 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:28 pm

the latest shots of TD 1 remind me of Irene 2005 when she was getting sheared... she still made it to a category 2 though... I think TD 1 will make it to TS strength but nothing more than 50mph
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#350 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:30 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:the latest shots of TD 1 remind me of Irene 2005 when she was getting sheared... she still made it to a category 2 though... I think TD 1 will make it to TS strength but nothing more than 50mph



Jeanne in 04 comes to mind. She was getting hammered for awhile.
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#351 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:30 pm

I see three options for the 5pm update...

1. They could relocate the center NW to near where they recorded a 32knot wind.

2. They could keep the center "broad" and in the same general area as at 2pm.

3. They could move the center well south to within the convection east of Belize.

Option 1 or 3 would greatly change the forecast track and option 2 would likely keep it similar.
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ROCK
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#352 Postby ROCK » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:34 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I see three options for the 5pm update...

1. They could relocate the center NW to near where they recorded a 32knot wind.

2. They could keep the center "broad" and in the same general area as at 2pm.

3. They could move the center well south to within the convection east of Belize.

Option 1 or 3 would greatly change the forecast track and option 2 would likely keep it similar.



Yep, I agree. Been watching #3 area for the last few hours. Leaning towards #2 area for now.
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#353 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:34 pm

Calamity wrote:Wunderground updated their graphics. They look nice.
Image Image


the only thing bad is that the smaller hurricane signatures in place of the line representing the past track could get confusing (e.i. if a small loop happens)
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#354 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:37 pm

ROCK wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I see three options for the 5pm update...

1. They could relocate the center NW to near where they recorded a 32knot wind.

2. They could keep the center "broad" and in the same general area as at 2pm.

3. They could move the center well south to within the convection east of Belize.

Option 1 or 3 would greatly change the forecast track and option 2 would likely keep it similar.



Yep, I agree. Been watching #3 area for the last few hours. Leaning towards #2 area for now.


then there is #4 which is "LAST ADVISORY FOR TD 1" ...but IMO that wont happen
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Steve
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#355 Postby Steve » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:40 pm

>>But look at the conditions, they are really bad for devlopment. In my opinion this TD is a waste of time.

They're not conducive to rapid intensification or anything, but they're fairly typical for early and late season storms. It's just the nature of the beast.

Steve
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Evil Jeremy
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#356 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:42 pm

also, wasant Arlene like this at one point? it made it through the shear, so why cant TD1?
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Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
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#357 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:44 pm

the 4CDT advisory should be out within the next 15 minutes!
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#358 Postby boca » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:44 pm

Does TD1 remind anyone of Arlene from last year pretty much in the same area.
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#359 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:45 pm

pretty much...it kinda looks the same also
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#360 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:46 pm

cheezywxman wrote:pretty much...it kinda looks the same also


you talking about Arlene?
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