99L Invest E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Extremeweatherguy]

Its probably because none of the invests out here have made it...but this ones different. Were closer to August now, shear is low, convection is makeing a comeback and the low is beginning to close off...I think this ones gonna make it

I do too. Something tells me this will become Chris (or at least TD 3).

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060729 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060729 1800 060730 0600 060730 1800 060731 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.9N 46.8W 9.4N 50.1W 10.0N 53.0W 10.7N 55.7W
BAMM 8.9N 46.8W 9.5N 50.3W 10.4N 53.4W 11.3N 56.2W
A98E 8.9N 46.8W 9.2N 50.2W 9.6N 53.4W 9.7N 56.5W
LBAR 8.9N 46.8W 9.3N 50.2W 10.1N 53.7W 11.2N 57.1W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 25KTS 29KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 25KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060731 1800 060801 1800 060802 1800 060803 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.1N 58.3W 11.4N 64.2W 12.0N 70.1W 13.3N 75.0W
BAMM 12.2N 58.8W 13.5N 64.0W 15.2N 68.8W 17.2N 72.9W
A98E 10.0N 59.2W 11.2N 64.3W 12.4N 69.1W 13.9N 73.4W
LBAR 12.2N 60.5W 14.2N 66.7W 15.1N 71.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 33KTS 41KTS 46KTS 52KTS
DSHP 33KTS 41KTS 46KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 46.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 8.8N LONM12 = 43.1W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 8.6N LONM24 = 39.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z BAM Models.

DSHP tunes down the intensity at this run now only up to 52kts.Pressure is down one millibar from this mornings run,1008 mbs.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Pressures are falling at a steady rate. Not only that, it appears that the convection is starting to get pulled into the LLC again.

[Air Force Met]

Derek, I'm just wondering. Are you always negative about waves no matter how good they look?

????? This wave doesn't look good. There is very little convection and as I pointed out earlier...the main convergence is taking place well away form the wave axis and main vorticity center.

I guess the question could be asked (and given the statements about previous waves)...are you always this positive about waves that look like garbage?

I think the difference is this. Mets call it like it is more often than not...and some don't like it cause they are wishing it to be something that it is not.

Right now...it doesn't look good. Doesn't mean it can't change come the diurnal convective max...but right now...it looked like a big old mess...and is the worst it has looked in days.

That is a fact.

[Aric Dunn]

Ok here is the problem ..we do not and i repeat we do not have a completly closed low.. that is our main problem here yes very good curvature and some banding on the east side but the west and sw side is not closed.. because of that boudry/trof/ITCZ and until it breaks away from that it will not form!!! and in combination with the dry air and the lack of a closed low the convection is limited becasue we do not have complete convergence!! the SW side is limiting the inflow....
this image will show you what i mean... the blue X is showing that it is not closed off ( yeah there is turning there but since that feature is there it wont)
the pink circle with the X is showing the Boundry feature /ITCZ that is limiting the SW side and until it breaks from there Nothing will happen
the red arrows are the surface winds it clearly shows no W and wsw IN FLOW/Banding and without it we will not have TC form
http://img125.imageshack.us/my.php?image=99ldo6.jpg

that is what i wrote for this image http://img71.imageshack.us/my.php?image=99lsz5.jpg

http://img71.imageshack.us/my.php?image=99l2pl9.jpg.....
now im saying it has closed off and the boundry has shifted north.. and there is banding and inflow where there was not.. also the convection has increased near the center......

[Brent]

This wave looks very bad right now... I agree with AFM, it's the worst it has looked since it became an Invest. It might still develop, but it's not going to be anytime soon.

[JTD]

Derek, I'm just wondering. Are you always negative about waves no matter how good they look?

????? This wave doesn't look good. There is very little convection and as I pointed out earlier...the main convergence is taking place well away form the wave axis and main vorticity center.

I guess the question could be asked (and given the statements about previous waves)...are you always this positive about waves that look like garbage?

I think the difference is this. Mets call it like it is more often than not...and some don't like it cause they are wishing it to be something that it is not.

Right now...it doesn't look good. Doesn't mean it can't change come the diurnal convective max...but right now...it looked like a big old mess...and is the worst it has looked in days.

That is a fact.

Well put. Awesome post AFM.

[Air Force Met]

Pressures are falling at a steady rate. Not only that, it appears that the convection is starting to get pulled into the LLC again.

You cannot say for any certainty that pressures are falling at a steady rate. The pressures they are inputing into the model, at this point in time, are nothing but a guess.

It is a GUESS that the pressures are down 1 whole mb over the last 24 hours (and that is not falling at a steady state)...and an unverifyable guess at that since there are no ships or floating buoys nearby to verify it.

As far as the convection goes....not really. It's moving west just as fast as the wave and we get bigger thunderstorm complexes around here with the seabreeze.

Again...not being negative...just factual. You are wanting this too bad. Don't let it cloud good judgment.

[cycloneye]

I have to agree 100% with AFM.Convection has to develop over the low and persist there.It can have a chance between 50w and 60w but again convection has to be plenty around the low.

[kenl01]

This wave looks very bad right now... I agree with AFM, it's the worst it has looked since it became an Invest. It might still develop, but it's not going to be anytime soon.

Agreed 100 %

[Aric Dunn]

agreed... !!!! on the convection .. yes it is very minimal.... but slightly increasing and it is increasing around the center.. 46.2 west 9.5 north

[Air Force Met]

This wave looks very bad right now... I agree with AFM, it's the worst it has looked since it became an Invest. It might still develop, but it's not going to be anytime soon.

Thanks Brent...and that is what I said a couple of pages back. I am not writing it off. I think it is the best chance we have had for "classical" development...but it is going to take a while.

It's not a sure thing...and it for sure isn't...it has to be watched. If it can gain some latitude, re-orient more N-S and get the convergence back into the center of the axis and near the vorticity...it will go.

And right now...nobody can say if it will do that or not. If they say they can...they are lying. If they say it will and it does...they got lucky.

[Opal storm]

No offense but this is just another over-hyped wave IMO.I know it has the chance to develop later down the road and it could very well do so.But most of you just want a storm to develop.Don't bash the pro mets when they are right 99% of the time.And Derek is right,this wave does not look organized at all right now.Have some patience.

[Janice]

Just a question here. Is it at all odd that there is not a number of TD's, TS's or canes up to August 1st? This has been a fabulous cane season so far. It seems in the past few years, we have seen a lot more action at this time.

[Air Force Met]

Just a question here. Is it at all odd that there is not a number of TD's, TS's or canes up to August 1st? This has been a fabulous cane season so far. It seems in the past few years, we have seen a lot more action at this time.

Not really. This is pretty normal. IN 2004...we hadn't seen anything by this time. Alex wasn't made a TD until Jul. 31st.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm not bashing the pro-mets, I'm just asking Derek why he has said to about most of the waves so far tis year they have a very low chance at development whether they look good or not. I never said this wave looked good in my earlier post I said,"No matter how good A wave looks" I didn't say THIS wave looks.

[cycloneye]

I'm not bashing the pro-mets, I'm just asking Derek why he has said to about most of the waves so far tis year they have a very low chance at development whether they look good or not.

Ok,let's calm down please.Derek is entitled to his opinion and we have to respect it.As Derek has said,even the experts have disagreements between them.

[x-y-no]

I'm not bashing the pro-mets, I'm just asking Derek why he has said to about most of the waves so far tis year they have a very low chance at development whether they look good or not. I never said this wave looked good in my earlier post I said,"No matter how good A wave looks" I didn't say THIS wave looks.

Well, maybe it has something to do with the fact that most of the waves so far this year have had very low chance of development.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This wave as been zotted!!!

[Noles2006]

I'm not bashing the pro-mets, I'm just asking Derek why he has said to about most of the waves so far tis year they have a very low chance at development whether they look good or not. I never said this wave looked good in my earlier post I said,"No matter how good A wave looks" I didn't say THIS wave looks.

All pro mets have been like this for the most part this year - wanna know why? Because there haven't been any waves in favorable situations to develop! It's really annoying to see amateur weather watchers calling out professional meteorologists.