Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[bvigal]

...Just found at NRL-ATCF - not working yet, but AL9706

Regardless how excited NHC is or not, I didn't make this up.

[mj]

Updated model link from S. Fl. Water Management
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_97.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

This "currently" still looks like only Central America threat. But I wouldn't bet a penny on it.

Looking better than that...TD is forming...STDS is coming soon..

[jasons2k]

This "currently" still looks like only Central America threat. But I wouldn't bet a penny on it.

Looking better than that...TD is forming...STDS is coming soon..

[curtadams]

TMI indicated some 30+kts winds on the last pass ,according to the Navy site. But it doesn't look imminent to me. I can't even find a storm-relative circulation on RGB, and it's a long way from mid-level cusp to closed surface center.

[ConvergenceZone]

NHC doesn't seem too impressed with the wave.

I don't buy into any of the TWOs anymore that the NHC puts out. They've been wrong soo many times this year, both on the "bullish" and the "bearish" side of the waves. It's like tossing a coin...

I do go by what I see on Satellite though, and this is getting it's act together.

[cycloneye]

18:00z Models graphic.

[crown]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/1745 UTC 10.1N 55.1W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic Ocean

Clearly the NHC is seeing something that others are not and it might appear that we will soon have lift off and curving is starting.

It it materialises then Grenada has it coming ...

[storms in NC]

You can see on the Vloop that it is starting to pull north some

[bvigal]

Poor NRL - they are in process of issuing 5 Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts - all the rest in the Pacific!!!

[storms in NC]

I have said this before till the Pacific clams down we will not have many this year. This would be good for Fla and La and Al and Miss

[curtadams]

Poor NRL - they are in process of issuing 5 Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts - all the rest in the Pacific!!!

I suspect those are ready to go, not about to be issued. Most of those Pacific invests look pretty bad. They want the TCFAs written and ready to send when it's time - you don't want some met trying to fix his typos when a storm is bearing down on somebody.

[ConvergenceZone]

18:00z Models graphic.

what's up with the GDFL?

LOL

[clfenwi]

(model graphic snipped)

what's up with the GDFL?

LOL

That's the run from 00Z last night. There hasn't been a GFDL run for this Invest since.

[terstorm1012]

It's initializing a different center it looks like convergencezone... I'd consider it the outlier..

[miamicanes177]

the models are predicting a very favorable track for a powerful hurricane. Almost like a perfect track.

[bvigal]

Poor NRL - they are in process of issuing 5 Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts - all the rest in the Pacific!!!

I suspect those are ready to go, not about to be issued. Most of those Pacific invests look pretty bad. They want the TCFAs written and ready to send when it's time - you don't want some met trying to fix his typos when a storm is bearing down on somebody.

hmm, maybe, but I've never seen them on there, visible to the public, unless they are going to be issued. What kind of commotion would that cause? LOL

[Derek Ortt]

this thing is coming together just like I have suspected it would

I would be watching this VERY CLOSELY in the W Caribbean. This has some real potential. Seems close to a TD now based upon visible imagery I am seeing

[SWFLA_CANE]

Does this have a potential to track similar to Charlie, Wilma, or Ivan or is it more likely to effect the Yucatan and BOC?

[CrazyC83]

I think this could very well become a very dangerous hurricane. Debby won't have the attention for all that long...Ernesto will be the real monster.