Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Sorry was not thinking, but still 37 mph would mean theres a very high chance of 40 mph winds.

Heck 4-5 more threads like this one we might have more large discussions then all of last season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Darn it convection is weaking again big time.

[Thunder44]

Darn it convection is weaking again big time.

Haha! That's first thing I saw when I woke up a couple mins ago. Pretty impressive blowup over night. Pressures dropped and winds increased and it could probably be upgraded to a TD now. However TPC probably wants to wait until convection persists longer and until the plane gets in there this afternoon.

[NDG]

Darn it convection is weaking again big time.

To my surprise it is still getting some light 10-15 knot NE shear that I would had thought it was going to be gone this morning, as well as some mid level dry air intrussion that keeps knocking down the convections, but not as bad windshearwise as the last couple of days.

[Normandy]

Not really developing that well, the convection is dying fast

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I thought it was a shoe in for a a short time, for a upgrade. But things are not that favorable, in I don't think the nhc will upgrade a system that doe's not have convection/cdo over the LLC.

[NDG]

I thought it was a shoe in for a a short time, for a upgrade. But things are not that favorable, in I don't think the nhc will upgrade a system that doe's not have convection/cdo over the LLC.

Not just that, but the system is starting to move NE slowly away from the warmer waters of the gulfstream into waters in the mid 70s and eventually low 70s, not warm enough for further tropical development.

[Thunder44]

Here are overnight's T numbers:

12/0545 UTC 28.8N 78.9W T1.5/1.5 ANDREA

[Thunder44]

There are some thunderstorms forming on the west side of the center again:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[Thunder44]

8:05 TWD :

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SMALL 1004 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND
DAYTONA BEACH NEAR 29N79W. THE PRESSURE OF THIS LOW HAS DROPPED
DURING THE NIGHT BUT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 74W-80W. WHILE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg
Convection blow up to the west of Andrea and to the east, a nice line of convection has formed.
Edit: Question, If these remnants were to reform, would they be named Andrea or Barry?

[Thunder44]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg
Convection blow up to the west of Andrea and to the east, a nice line of convection has formed.
Edit: Question, If these remnants were to reform, would they be named Andrea or Barry?

It will keep the name Andrea.

[HURAKAN]

Will the Hurricane Hunters still visit Andrea's remnants today?

[Thunder44]

I think they will fly out today. Andrea is looking slowly better organized on radar and satellite images this morning. And the pressure has fallen overnight. Latest high resolution QS shows a well-defined low-level center with uncontaminated 25kt to 30kt wind barbs west of the center:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas75.png

The flight should go out around noon time.

[HURAKAN]

Latest high resolution QS shows a well-defined low-level center with uncontaminated 25kt to 30kt wind barbs west of the center.

Could there be stronger winds to the northeast of the center.

[Thunder44]

Latest high resolution QS shows a well-defined low-level center with uncontaminated 25kt to 30kt wind barbs west of the center.

Could there be stronger winds to the northeast of the center.

Maybe, but I think it's most likely a 25kt or 30kt TD.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE ANDREA (AL012007) 20070512 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070512 1200 070513 0000 070513 1200 070514 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.0N 78.6W 29.5N 77.5W 29.7N 75.6W 29.6N 72.4W
BAMD 29.0N 78.6W 30.0N 77.5W 31.0N 74.9W 31.9N 69.1W
BAMM 29.0N 78.6W 29.8N 77.6W 30.4N 75.5W 30.7N 70.7W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070514 1200 070515 1200 070516 1200 070517 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.7N 69.3W 26.6N 64.0W 26.4N 63.7W 30.8N 65.0W
BAMD 33.7N 59.8W 43.2N 48.7W 51.4N 42.2W 59.6N 29.6W
BAMM 30.9N 62.7W 37.7N 45.6W 47.1N 40.6W 55.7N 26.1W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.0N LONCUR = 78.6W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 28.5N LONM12 = 79.2W DIRM12 = 69DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 28.7N LONM24 = 79.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

1005 mbs and 25kts the maximun winds the tropical models have at 12:00z.

[Thunder44]

12z models have initialized the center between those two blobs of convection and its moving NE at 5mph.

[HURAKAN]

[Thunder44]

Now I'm looking at the surronding buoys at the top of the hour, pressures are rising and winds are slacking off:

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

So now I'm wondering if this system is really getting better organized.

Hold a second, buoy 41010 winds the have switched to west, which means the has moved to the north of that bouy.