Invest 98L,Central Atlantic

[Patrick99]

Let's say 98L develops into something...who's to say it wouldn't take a similar path as Dean and Felix? This was once at a relatively high latitude and has drifted to a very low latitude, getting very near to where both D&F got their start.

[CrazyC83]

Let's say 98L develops into something...who's to say it wouldn't take a similar path as Dean and Felix? This was once at a relatively high latitude and has drifted to a very low latitude, getting very near to where both D&F got their start.

My thinking too. Down the same conveyor belt with the same conditions. If it can survive to 55-60°W, we could have yet another extremely dangerous storm.

[Blown Away]

Yeah, I'd rather look at 98L myself; it's where the bigger question marks are. Felix is about as done a deal as it gets in the tropics....signed, sealed and delivered with good model agreement. Hard to believe the two big systems this year so far have been so relentlessly straight and predictable.

Remember Frances and Jean in 2004. They both hit within 5 miles of each other but 3 weeks apart.

Boy do I remember those, but they don't compare to 2 Cat 5's? Dean & Felix has been our hurricane season, the others were nothing more than big rain storms, a couple barely qualified to be named IMO.

[boca]

Let's say 98L develops into something...who's to say it wouldn't take a similar path as Dean and Felix? This was once at a relatively high latitude and has drifted to a very low latitude, getting very near to where both D&F got their start.

True 98L went from 15n to 12n the high is pushing 98L SW. Their is talk about a possible trough that would take 98L NW then bend back to the west. I think it was Jeff Masters that said that I'm not sure.

[boca]

I was looking at 98L and I saw something else out their about 350 miles WSW of 98L, quite a spin to it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[artist]

Boca - if I read the update earlier right they sid they were moving the low to the 54-55 area.
I asked about that when i read it and didn't get a definate answer, but if they are then this would be it I would think.

[boca]

Maybe they would classify it as 99L since it has rotation already there and its flaring up. Maybe I should start a thread in talking tropics.

[Blown Away]

Is the convection starting to wrap around the SE side of 98L? It's hard to tell what is attached to the LLC and what is being blown off.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[HURAKAN]

Is the convection starting to wrap around the SE side of 98L? It's hard to tell what is attached to the LLC and what is being blown off.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

Use this: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

Is not wrapping around but it's closer to the LLC and more numerous.

[Blown Away]

Is the convection starting to wrap around the SE side of 98L? It's hard to tell what is attached to the LLC and what is being blown off.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

Use this: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

Is not wrapping around but it's closer to the LLC and more numerous.

Much better view, you can see the convection building a little more. Can we assume the shear is beginning to relax?

[Vortex]

Convection appears to be forming on the sw side of the exposed center...Going to get interesting the next 24. Shear values are also decreasing to around 10kts from 20kt. This may be the beginning of convection to re-fire over the center...

[Vortex]

00Z GFs at +18 indicates deep convection over center...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018l.gif

[boca]

Looking at the shortwave loop 98L is moving SW and if it develops will be a bottom feeder again like Felix. Only if the high stays this strong. I still think that its not wrapping like blownaway sees but shear is blowing everyhting WSW.

[boca]

I know the pros are focusing on Felix but I'm trying to figure out if 98L develops like it looks like now. Where is it going,million dollar question.

[jhamps10]

I know the pros are focusing on Felix but I'm trying to figure out if 98L develops like it looks like now. Where is it going,million dollar question.

Good luck getting anything boca. I've been trying to get some help on the low off the SE US to see if it could allow a weakness in the ridge to develop and allowing Felix to move NW, and i've got nothin at all except silence....

anyway if 98L develops, we should see 1 of 2 things. 1. it goes a low lat like Felix and Dean, and slam mexico, belize and Central america.

2, it goes north of the islands, and poses a threat to the US coastline.

[Aric Dunn]

I starting to wonder this evening if its just going to get absorbed by the much larger wave that has exited the african coast .. that wave is causing a whole lot distortion to the trade winds down there .. which is probably why 98L has come to a dead stop (westward) motion...

[boca]

I know the pros are focusing on Felix but I'm trying to figure out if 98L develops like it looks like now. Where is it going,million dollar question.

Good luck getting anything boca. I've been trying to get some help on the low off the SE US to see if it could allow a weakness in the ridge to develop and allowing Felix to move NW, and i've got nothin at all except silence....

anyway if 98L develops, we should see 1 of 2 things. 1. it goes a low lat like Felix and Dean, and slam mexico, belize and Central america.

2, it goes north of the islands, and poses a threat to the US coastline.

The more I look at this the more I think it will follow Dean and Felix being a bottom feeder.My reasoning is the high pressure us just not letting go.

[wxmann_91]

I know the pros are focusing on Felix but I'm trying to figure out if 98L develops like it looks like now. Where is it going,million dollar question.

Good luck getting anything boca. I've been trying to get some help on the low off the SE US to see if it could allow a weakness in the ridge to develop and allowing Felix to move NW, and i've got nothin at all except silence....

anyway if 98L develops, we should see 1 of 2 things. 1. it goes a low lat like Felix and Dean, and slam mexico, belize and Central america.

2, it goes north of the islands, and poses a threat to the US coastline.

wxman57 did elaborate that the GFS is spuriously developing that low, thus inducing a weakness in the 500mb ridge that's not suppose to be there. That was his reasoning as to why he like the European better.

So yes, the low could have an effect at weakening the ridge somewhat... but not enough to pull Felix sufficiently poleward for a US threat.

[ConvergenceZone]

Let's say 98L develops into something...who's to say it wouldn't take a similar path as Dean and Felix? This was once at a relatively high latitude and has drifted to a very low latitude, getting very near to where both D&F got their start.

because that high pressure system can't last forever and it's way overdue to show a weakness...I just can't fathom 3 storms following the exact same path due to a high protecting the gulf for this long..Something has to give and it will give soon...the US can only be protected for so long.

[artist]

From Maimi's NWS disucssion tonight re that low possibly off the Fl coast:

BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE NE FL
COST E OF JAX AND THEN REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY
BUT WITH A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SFC
TROUGH DRAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH UPPER RIDGING
RETREATING TO OUR SOUTHEAST. LABOR DAY WILL BE IN TRANSITION WITH
VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW BUT WITH A TENDENCY TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THEN DEEP WESTERLY FLOW BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL GIVE THE E CST
HIGHEST POPS BY TUESDAY BUT THE GFS IS STILL SHOWING LIMITED
MOISTURE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE DRIER AIR ALOFT WOULD BE
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH IF THE LOW DOES DEVELOP AND THUS HAVE GONE
CLOSER WITH THE MAV POP GUIDANCE. IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS KEEPS
THE LOW NEARLY STATIONARY BUT THEN BEGINS DRIFTING IT BACK TO THE
WEST BY FRIDAY TOWARDS THE GEORGIA COAST. WILL NOT JUMP ON ANY
WAGON JUST YET AND WAIT FOR SOME CONTINUITY TO SEE WHAT CHANGES
MIGHT BE IN STORE FOR OUR REGION.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsBySta ... discussion