Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

jhamps10 · #341 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:12 pm

120
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

500 mb:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

jhamps10 · #342 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:14 pm

That convection is really getting itself going. Folks, I think should this continue to develop like this and hold, we will have 93L tomorrow morning.

jhamps10 · #343 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:19 pm

gfs loses it again at 132

edit, so NAM has it stronger than ever, but GFS can't seem to get a good hold of it, I will say this though, that the big convection tonight in nearly the same area that Carla was born has me concerned. I right now know of course to not trust any model this far out, espically the GFS for intensity purposes, but I think the GFS is really underdoing this tonight.

wxmann_91 · #344 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:27 pm

Nothing is going to make it to the Gulf Coast at anything more than a TS with the ULL forecast to be over the GOM. But the upper level environment over the western Caribbean is forecast to be VERY favorable. FWIW.

#345 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:28 pm

Nogaps rolling in shortly...

jhamps10 · #346 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:29 pm

Vortex wrote:Nogaps rolling in shortly...

I'll put you in charge of nogaps, and if you want to stay up real late the euro.

Derek Ortt · #347 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:32 pm

an invest with this upper level environment?

the torugh to tis north is moving to the west... shear may very dominate this system

#348 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:33 pm

H-24 Nogaps

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=024

YouTube · #349 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:34 pm

Perhaps the title should be changed to "models jumping off".

One by one, they seem to be changing their "minds".

Still, it is interesting to watch this computer simulated weather world played out every 6 to 12 hours or so....wonder what tomorrow's batch of models will show? Bet the Euro has monster cane in GOM since the GFS does not :-)

'CaneFreak · #350 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:34 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:an invest with this upper level environment?

the torugh to tis north is moving to the west... shear may very dominate this system

what do you mean by "dominate"? You dont think this has a chance? Just wondering...

#351 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:34 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:an invest with this upper level environment?

the torugh to tis north is moving to the west... shear may very dominate this system

#352 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:36 pm

H+36

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=036

jhamps10 · #353 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:36 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Perhaps the title should be changed to "models jumping off".

One by one, they seem to be changing their "minds".

Still, it is interesting to watch this computer simulated weather world played out every 6 to 12 hours or so....wonder what tomorrow's batch of models will show? Bet the Euro has monster cane in GOM since the GFS does not

Mark, the models aren't "jumping off", they just are showing a weaker system, this GFS run is the only one thus far that really doesn't do much with it. all the others are still showing a low, so I don't see your jumping off idea...

But watch on the euro, wouldn't suprise me one bit to see that though.

Extremeweatherguy · #354 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:41 pm

We probably shouldn't be focusing on the specifics of the models right now (strength, movement. etc), but instead we should just take note that most of them show some type of development next week in the Caribbean or GOM. Usually this is a good sign that something may actually form...and add to this the fact that JB is also calling for development, and we should be watching closely. His track record with predicting tropical genesis has been great this year!

jhamps10 · #355 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:44 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:We probably shouldn't be focusing on the specifics of the models right now (strength, movement. etc), but instead we should just take note that most of them show some type of development next week in the Caribbean or GOM. Usually this is a good sign that something may actually form...and add to this the fact that JB is also calling for development, and we should be watching closely. His track record with predicting tropical genesis has been great this year!

exactly EWG, that's what I'm looking at, and I know about JB, almost he's been too good at these.

#356 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:48 pm

H+60

Beginning to move north..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=060

#357 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:56 pm

H+84

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=084

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #358 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Sep 16, 2007 12:11 am

With the 2007 super tutt from out of this world backing westward into the western Caribbean, do not expect any develop. Things will get very boring once Ingrid dies for about 2-3 days at least.

#359 Postby **Vortex** » Sun Sep 16, 2007 12:15 am

H-120

Stronger..Approaching S.FL

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=120

#360 Postby **Vortex** » Sun Sep 16, 2007 12:17 am

Nogaps almost identical position and strength from 12Z and now 00z at H-120

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