TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

What's up with the pattern? A few weeks ago, many of our long-range progonsticators were calling for a cold blast or two in the beginning of December, then an extended period of "blowtorch" warmth for the rest of the winter. But after reading Jeff's email it looks like a few more blasts of cold are on the way.

What did Jeff say? And how can I get on his email list?

I've always enjoyed his insight. Seems ahead of the curve in alot of cases.

[Portastorm]

We bottomed out in north Austin at 31 degrees ... but we did get a trace of snow last night!

(ok, I'm kidding about the last part )

Showing those Ohio roots again with the avatar??

How would you have liked to have been at that Brown/Bill game yesterday?

I'd have a blast.

LOL! Some roots are simply too deep.

I watched yesterday's game with my boys at a sports bar/restaurant here in Austin with a bunch of other Browns fans. There were moments where you could barely see the players due to the heavy snow and 30-40 mph wind gusts! I have played football in that weather as a kid ... and let me tell you ... it's fun for about 5 minutes and then when you start losing feeling in your extremities, it's not much fun!

And how about that Texas boy Phil Dawson kicking a 49-yarder in the blizzard?! Hook 'em!

[jasons2k]

What did Jeff say? And how can I get on his email list?

I've always enjoyed his insight. Seems ahead of the curve in alot of cases.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=96890&p=1674832#p1674832

[southerngale]

The closest Weatherbug stations to me reported last night: two of them at 28° and one at 29° -

Much *warmer* tonight at 44°



I'm still dreaming of a white Christmas...

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NWS and the GFS are now both showing another freeze threat this upcoming Sunday night. If this does indeed play out, then it means we could be waking up to sub-32˚ temperatures on Christmas Eve morning.

[Dthomas104]

The NWS and the GFS are now both showing another freeze threat this upcoming Sunday night. If this does indeed play out, then it means we could be waking up to sub-32˚ temperatures on Christmas Eve morning.

THATS SO FREAKIN AWSOME!!!!!!

[TrekkerCC]

Well, North Texas might be in for some winter weather if the models pan out (this is still in the long range). I'm posting the relevant snippet from this morning's NWS weather discussion.

THE GFS THEN BRINGS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT THE SAME TIME. THE
EURO HAS NO SIMILAR FEATURE. WILL FOLLOW THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS
PACKAGE BUT EXPECT CHANGES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS
SOLUTION PANS OUT...A WINTER WEATHER EVENT COULD BE IN STORE FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE HAVE SEVERAL MODEL RUNS TO GO
BEFORE THEN.

[gboudx]

Well, North Texas might be in for some winter weather if the models pan out (this is still in the long range). I'm posting the relevant snippet from this morning's NWS weather discussion.

THE GFS THEN BRINGS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT THE SAME TIME. THE
EURO HAS NO SIMILAR FEATURE. WILL FOLLOW THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS
PACKAGE BUT EXPECT CHANGES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS
SOLUTION PANS OUT...A WINTER WEATHER EVENT COULD BE IN STORE FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE HAVE SEVERAL MODEL RUNS TO GO
BEFORE THEN.

NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!! We have to travel middle of next week down to New Orleans.

[CajunMama]

gboudx...i'll be waving at ya as you pass by lafayette. Have a safe trip.

[TrekkerCC]

Well, North Texas might be in for some winter weather if the models pan out (this is still in the long range). I'm posting the relevant snippet from this morning's NWS weather discussion.

THE GFS THEN BRINGS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT THE SAME TIME. THE
EURO HAS NO SIMILAR FEATURE. WILL FOLLOW THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS
PACKAGE BUT EXPECT CHANGES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS
SOLUTION PANS OUT...A WINTER WEATHER EVENT COULD BE IN STORE FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE HAVE SEVERAL MODEL RUNS TO GO
BEFORE THEN.

NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!! We have to travel middle of next week down to New Orleans.

I'm in the same boat as you. I am flying out west after Christmas, so this could be an inopportune time to have a winter weather event (be it snow, sleet, or freezing rain). I will be looking closely at the models and forecasts over the coming days. Correction: The 12z GFS is out. The 12z GFS spits out some QPF near North Texas with it appears to be a coldish atmosphere the day after Christmas. It is still way in the long range.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFS MOS has trended significantly colder for Christmas week. Here in SE Texas, it is showing highs in the mid 50s and lows in the lower 40s for the Monday through Wednesday period with a ~30% chance of rain each day. Up in north Texas it looks even colder and shows highs only in the 40s and lows in the 30s. If this ends up being correct, then Christmas day might be chilly after all.

[JonathanBelles]

question... How is the GFS different from the GFS MOS, and where do I get the GFS MOS?

[TrekkerCC]

question... How is the GFS different from the GFS MOS, and where do I get the GFS MOS?

MOS (Model Output Statistics) is a statistical-based approach to forecasting (such as temperature, dew point, QRF, etc) based on the current model run, prior observations, and climatology. Pro Meteorologists can give you the more technical details about MOS output, but MOS forecasts can be used to account for inherent model biases and climatology. Of course, during certain events (such as major storms or major weather changes), MOS tends to be inaccurate and the forecaster has to account for this (same as if they were viewing actual model output).

This is a good simple site that describes what MOS is and what it is used for:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/mos2.htm

To view MOS output:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml

One point about the ETA MOS, the ETA MOS (MET) uses the old style ETA model to come up with the forecast parameters. The NAM-WRF for some reason did not lend itself to MOS based forecasts, and the NCEP continues to run the old style ETA at 00z and 12z just so that MET MOS forecasts can be produced.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Brr. It looks like it will be a chilly Christmas day up in Dallas this year. Here is the latest forecast for that region...

Christmas Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 44.

That is not all though. The GFS then goes on to depict more interesting and "wintry" weather next week. Take a look...

Highs in the 40s all the way south to Houston next Wednesday: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif <<850mb temperatures will also be below 0C for SE Texas with low thicknesses, so some mixed in sleet or snow is not out of the question with surface temperatures in the 38-42F range.

Strong front pushes through next Friday: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif , there might even be some winter-type precipitation on the back end of the precip. shield: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_216l.gif

[CajunMama]

Texas is going to get this before louisiana but it looks like bam, bam, bam. Three cold fronts in a row.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
344 PM CST WED DEC 19 2007

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-202145-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
344 PM CST WED DEC 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY.
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING FROM TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
SYSTEM ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

A THIRD COLD FRONT IS FORECAST LATE MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MIDDAY.

$$

ERICKSON

[ETXHAMXYL]

Saw a morning update from the NWS ftw site that says cool and stormy coming up Sat. Then an interesting mention of Christmas and beyond. Stated no new data but things look interesting....ummmm I'll take a white Christmas, day after Christmas, day after that, etc. anytime even in July. LOL So maybe if I pray hard enough I might get my birthday snow on the 24th? Will be 43 and it would be a first. Just not holding my breath, if I do I might not see my 43rd birthday on Monday huh?

NOTE: not good at cut and paste on computer doesn't seem to work like my scissors and elmers as well, makes the computer monitor sticky. So go to the NWS site and check it out. Merry Christmas Y'all!

[PineyWoods]

I don't know how to read charts much, but I do notice that the temps in Alaska and the Yukon are in the -35° to -45° range. That maybe normal for them this time of year, but just wondering if that is one of the ingredients, along with the upper flow to bring colder artic air down into Texas?

Doesn't that usually take ~7-10 days to build up and move southward under it's own weight?

Just wondering.

Maybe my Spring Branch buddy here can get a snow event like back in '73.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Hey Piney Woods we are neighbors...over in Athens here.
SPoke to my sister in Alaska last night and it has been very cold but they are suppose to warm up....usually that means it is heading down this way in about a week....probably the day after Christmas.

[southerngale]

Yesterday, NWS had our high for Christmas Day at 60° - way too warm, but I thought.... ok, there's time for that to trend downward.

Today, the forecasted high for Christmas Day is 65°
Not the trend I was hoping for.

Shorts weather on Christmas just ain't right.

[JonathanBelles]

Yesterday, NWS had our high for Christmas Day at 60° - way too warm, but I thought.... ok, there's time for that to trend downward.

Today, the forecasted high for Christmas Day is 65°
Not the trend I was hoping for.

Shorts weather on Christmas just ain't right.

I've got a high of 75 on Christmas here.